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By Sean Duke
Science Editor
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An asteroid the size of a hockey pitch that was first spotted by NASA researchers on Christmas Day has a one-in-83 risk of slamming into Earth in late 2032.
The 196-foot space rock is 27 million miles from Earth but closing in fast, and it has been placed at the top of NASA's Sentry Risk Table, which details the asteroids that could hit Earth over the next century.
According to research from NASA's Center for NEO Studies (CNEOS), the asteroid YR4 has a slightly greater than 1 percent chance of hitting Earth, meaning it requires close attention from astronomers.
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The risk is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized asteroid ever, scientists say.
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What Impact Could the Asteroid Have?
The asteroid is made of stony material, and scientists believe it could cause an airburst—where a meteorite explodes after entering Earth's atmosphere—before hitting the ground. If it is made of iron, it could travel right through the atmosphere and hit the ground, making an impact crater.
According to CNEOS, the asteroid, if it makes impact, is likely to hit Earth on December 22, 2032, and it is expected to be capable of localized destruction.
Asteroids that are potentially hazardous to Earth are quite common, but they rarely pose an actual threat to the planet. This asteroid is not big enough to pose a global threat, but it would still release a significant amount of energy if it were to slam into Earth.
NASA estimates that a strike from the asteroid would release 8 megatons of energy, more than 500 times the energy released by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 and on a par with the energy released in the Tunguska event of June 30, 1908.
That incident occurred when an explosion over Siberia flattened 80 million trees. Scientists now believe this was due to a meteor airburst.
The speed and mass of YR4 are subject to change as the asteroid travels through space. It's possible, scientists say, that the asteroid may become less of a threat as it moves closer to Earth. It's also possible that it may become more dangerous as it circles back around the planet upon approach.
Last year, NASA demonstrated the ability to redirect an asteroid so that it would not collide with Earth.
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