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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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This upcoming NFL season features an exciting rookie class, with a generational QB prospect in Caleb Williams (Bears) who went number 1 in the draft, followed by two more QBs in Jayden Daniels (2nd pick to Commanders) and Drake Maye (3rd pick to Patriots). Then, we had two sensational receiving prospects in Marvin Harrison Jr. (4th pick to Cardinals) and Malik Nabers (6th pick to Giants) go in the top 6 of the 2024 NFL draft as well.
So, this is going to be a competitive award that will be very fun to watch as the season goes on, and what we are going to do in this article is a deep dive into the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds while giving out our official prediction at the end.
2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds
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Unsurprisingly, Caleb Williams is the heavy favorite to win this award. He was the best QB prospect in the draft, and he has been on the NFL's radar since he was a freshman at Oklahoma. He also enters the NFL in what one could argue is the best situation a number 1 drafted QB has ever been drafted into. Of course, the Bears got the top pick in the draft because of a trade they made the previous year with the Panthers, and the Panthers ended with the worst record in the NFL.
So, instead of joining the worst team in the NFL, Williams joins a team that has an elite trio of receivers in D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze, a solid running-back in D'Andre Swift and PFFs 11th-rated offensive line. Everything is set up for Williams to have success in his first year in the NFL, so it makes complete sense that he is the heavy favorite to win this award.
The Best of the Rest
After Williams, the top five is rounded out by the three of the four players mentioned above in Daniels, Harrison Jr. and Nabers, with the fifth-best odds going to rookie QB J.J. McCarthy. It might come as a surprise to see McCarthy ahead of Maye, but the Patriots are projected to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL, while McCarthy joins a playoff-ready roster and arguably the best receiver in the NFL in Justin Jefferson. But, the most likely scenario is that Sam Darnold begins the year as the Vikings starter, so it is unlikely that J.J. actually wins this award.
Malik Nabers is an elite wide receiver prospect, but it is hard to get behind him having a good enough year to win this award when you look at the QB situation going on in New York. Nabers is unfortunately shackled to Daniel Jones, who was one of the worst QBs in the NFL last year and is now coming off a torn ACL. Jones was actually PFFs third-ranked quarterback on the Giants alone last year, grading out as a worse QB than both Tommy DeVito and Tyrod Taylor. It certainly does not help that the Giants are projected to have the fourth-worst offensive line in the NFL in 2024 as well.
Daniels, as the second pick in the draft, makes sense to also have the second-best odds to win the award. He joins a Commanders team with a completely new coaching staff in head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. While Kingsbury was mostly a disaster as head coach of the Cardinals, he does run a fast-paced offense which made Kyler Murray a valuable asset in fantasy. Generally, performing well in fantasy means you put up stats, and stats will help with this award. It does help that Daniels has decent weapons at his disposal, headlined by wide receiver Terry McLaurin.
Daniels also has the benefit of the Commanders projecting to have a significantly worse defense than the Bears. After the Bears traded for defensive end Montez Sweat in the middle of last season, their defense took a major step forward. The Commanders, meanwhile, went the opposite way and ended 2023 with the second-worst defense in the NFL, and ProFootballNetwork projects them to once again be among the bottom defenses in 2024. This gives Daniels a chance to put up better numbers with the Commanders constantly playing from behind and needing to throw. So, between Daniels and Williams, the better value play is to take Jayden Daniels at +650 as opposed to Caleb Williams at +140.
Official Prediction: Marvin Harrison Jr. (+750) FanDuel
With all this being said, our official prediction to win the award is Marvin Harrison Jr. Unlike Nabers, Harrison Jr. joins a team with a real NFL quarterback in Kyler Murray. While it can be argued whether Murray is a good enough QB to win at an elite level, he has been able to sustain major production for his receivers in the past.
DeAndre Hopkins put up 115 receptions for 1400 yards and 6 TDs in 2020, his only year on the Cardinals with Kyler where he stayed healthy and was not suspended, and Harrison Jr. projects to be an elite, alpha receiver at the NFL level. We have seen rookie WRs in the past put up spectacular numbers, and it would not be a surprise to see Harrison Jr. be the next rookie WR to do just that. It is not hyperbole to say that he was one of the best receiver prospects of all time, and he projects to perform well his rookie year. FantasyPros projects him to finish the year with 88 receptions for 1166 yards, while PFF ranks him as their 12th-best receiver for 2024.
If he puts up the type of numbers that most outlets are projecting for him, then it is easy to see Harrison Jr. winning this award, making him our official prediction and best bet to make at +750 odds.
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