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Tyler Everett

By Tyler Everett

Sports Betting Editor

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A major factor in every NFL season is the varying degree of difficulty that each team faces based on which opponents are on its schedule.

The true impact of schedule luck is often much more obvious at the end of a season than the beginning, but it's always worth examining before a campaign kicks off.

How are NFL teams' schedules determined?

Before we go any further, let's explain how NFL schedules work. We'll use the AFC East and the Bills to explain how a team's opponents are assigned.

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This year, every team in the AFC East plays all four teams in the AFC South as well as all four teams in the NFC West. That's based on a league-wide rotation that ensures that all teams across the NFL's eight divisions meet each other at least once every four years.

The nine other games for the four members of the AFC East include six (two against each of their three division rivals) within their division, and three others against teams that finished in the same place in their respective division in 2023.

That's why the Bills, who won the AFC East last year, play not only their pre-set AFC South and NFC West foes, but 2023 NFC North champ Detroit, 2023 AFC North champ Baltimore and 2023 AFC West winner Kansas City.

Given the way the league's rotation to determine opponents works, it's important to focus on which divisions a team will face outside of its own.

2024 NFL Division Schedule Breakdown

Below are how the non-division matchups look for the upcoming season.

Ranking NFL Divisions by Projected Wins

Any team whose non-division schedule happens to feature the NFC South, for example, seemingly has a leg up on any team slated to meet every team in a division like the AFC North.

Sportsbooks' projected win totals confirm as much. Based on bet365's win totals for all 32 teams in the league, the AFC North is by far the best division. The bookmaker projects the Ravens, Bengals, Browns and Steelers to win a total of around 38 games.

At the other end of the spectrum is the NFC South, where bet365 projects all four teams to be about average or worse. The Falcons, Bucs, Saints and Panthers are projected to combine for roughly 30 wins.

According to bet365, below are the division rankings entering the 2024 season.

The total number of games the four teams in each division are projected to win (per bet365) is in parentheses.

How to Evaluate NFL Strength of Schedule

There are a number of ways to evaluate a team's schedule going into a given season.

Many fans understandably rely on opponents' record/winning percentage from the previous year. Other methods for calculating a team's strength of schedule include looking at the projected win totals for the opponent in question.

Are the 2024 Bears -- to choose one team that looks very different on paper this year -- the same squad that went 7-10 a year ago, or a playoff team?

The preseason odds indicate they're closer to the latter than the former.

Related: last year's Houston Texans were the latest great example that a team's record the year before is worth keeping in mind, but it doesn't mean everything.

This time a year ago, anyone with Houston on its schedule was circling that as a likely win. That's because the Texans entered 2023 coming off three straight seasons with four wins or fewer. But by November, it was clear that then-6-4 Houston was no gimme.

SportsBettingDime's Matt McEwan incorporates projected win totals into his strength of schedule analysis.

This year, SportsBettingDime says that the easiest schedules belong, in order, to the Falcons, Chargers, Bears, Jets and Saints.

The teams with the most difficult 2024 schedules, per SBD, are the Steelers, Patriots, Browns, Vikings and Texans.

That makes sense given the Steelers and Browns all play in the brutal AFC North, while the Pats and Vikes are also in tough divisions.

Team to Back Based on Schedule: Carolina

Panthers bet365 win total: 5.5 (over -130, under +100)

Obviously, there are no easy wins for a franchise that was 2-15 a year ago. But facing the AFC West -- which features three beatable teams (with the obvious exception of Kansas City) -- will help. Carolina also takes on at least two NFC contenders from the NFC East in Philadelphia and Dallas, but gets the Cowboys at home.

Carolina's road opponents include the Saints, Raiders, Bears, Commanders, Broncos, Eagles, Bucs and Falcons. Of those teams, only the Eagles are projected to win over 10 games, though the Bears, Bucs and Falcons all look like above-.500 teams.

Getting Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Dallas in Charlotte won't change the Panthers' status as clear underdogs in those games, but it should improve their chances at a possible upset.

Most importantly, home games against the Chargers, Falcons, Saints, Giants* and Cardinals give this team some winnable matchups, even if massive improvement from last year's trainwreck remains unlikely.

*The Panthers are the hosts for the November 10 matchup against the Giants in Munich, Germany.

Team to Fade Based on Schedule: San Francisco

49ers bet365 win total: 11.5 (over +100, under -130)

All four teams in the NFC West have tough schedules thanks to the NFL's rotation. The 49ers, Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals are paired up with the NFC North and the AFC East, two divisions that look imposing on paper.

The matchups with NFC North favorites Detroit and Green Bay and AFC East contenders Buffalo, New York and Miami are not the only tough ones on SF's schedule, though.

San Francisco's foes outside the divisions it's locked in with include Kansas City, Dallas and Tampa Bay. It will help the Niners' chances that they get the Chiefs and Cowboys at home, but this schedule still looks daunting, especially down the stretch.

The 49ers will be heavy favorites in a number of early-season games, particularly against Minnesota in Week 2 and New England in Week 4. But from October 20 through December 1, San Francisco has a challenging six-game stretch:

Back-to-back games against the Dolphins in Week 16 and the Lions in Week 17 also will challenge this team.

The Niners' floor is undeniably high, but they'll have to earn it to make it three straight years with 12 or more regular-season wins.

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