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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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We are officially one week into the football season, which means we actually have real data to go off of for these picks. Of course, Week 1 in the NFL is known to be a red herring, so we want to make sure not to overreact.
With that thought in mind, here are our three best non-TD NFL player prop picks for Week 2.
Malik Nabers 6+ Receptions (+123) Caesars
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders, 1 p.m. ET
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While Nabers did not have an emphatic rookie debut, he was also not horrible. He had a respectable five receptions on seven targets for 66 yards. Considering the Giants had one of the most pathetic offensive performances you will ever see, that stat line should be considered a success.
Somehow, Wan'Dale Robinson out-targeted Nabers with 12 targets to Nabers' seven, but that is not something that should continue week-over-week. The guess here is that the Giants are going to attempt to get their first-round rookie WR the ball early and often.
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One thing that was encouraging about Nabers' debut is that the Giants made it a point to get him going in motion. Of his seven targets, he was in motion on six of them, with the seventh target being a WR screen.
This is encouraging because around the league, we see offensive play-callers put their best WR in motion to get an advantageous matchup.
So, Nabers being put in motion more than any other receiver on the Giants is a good sign, and the New York passing game also has a great matchup against the Commanders.
As bad as the Giants offense looked in Week 1, the Commanders defense looked equally as bad. They allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for 289 yards and four touchdowns with an 80 percent completion rate. Mayfield's passer rating of 146.4 led the NFL for Week 1.
The Commanders had one of the worst passing defenses in 2023, so it is not a shock to see them struggle out of the gate this year as well, and it is something that we are expecting to continue over the course of the season.
Nabers should get peppered with enough targets to get to the reception number (six) that we need to cash out this prop.
Units: 1.00
Isiah Pacheco o63.5 Rush. Yards (-120) Bet365
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. ET
Pacheco is one of our favorite Anytime Touchdown picks for the weekend, and we like him to go over this rushing total against the Bengals as well, for a lot of the same logic.
Despite being a pass-happy coach at his core, Andy Reid has adapted over time and shown the willingness to continue to pound the rock with the running back if he feels as though he has an advantage.
We saw that happen in this exact matchup last year, when Pacheco had 18 carries for an absurd 130 yards and a touchdown. That was one of six times in Pacheco's last nine games (including the playoffs) of 2023 when he went over this rushing total.
Pacheco also took 80 percent of the running back snaps for the Chiefs in Week 1, which is a good sign for his workload moving forward.
He did miss this rushing total in Week 1 this year, but that was in a much tougher matchup against the Ravens than this Bengals team. Last week, we saw the Bengals give up 120 rushing yards to Rhamondre Stevenson of the Patriots, who came into the season with one of the league's worst offensive lines.
The Bengals having an issue stopping the run is something that we saw for most of last year as well, as they allowed the seventh-most rushing yards in the NFL, and now through one week of the 2024 season, they are still having issues.
Units: 1.00
Brian Thomas Jr. o3.5 Receptions (+130) Bet365
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET
This is a number that Thomas Jr. went over last week against the Dolphins, and even in a tough matchup against the Browns, we like him to go over 3.5 receptions once again.
Thomas Jr. had four receptions on as many targets last week, but his route-running was phenomenal. He routinely was able to get open even though he was going up against an All-Pro CB in Jalen Ramsey of the Dolphins.
The Jaguars passing offense looked out of sync in general last week, as QB Trevor Lawrence only completed 12 of his 21 passes for 162 yards, and nobody on the Jags had more than four targets.
Luckily, Thomas Jr. was one of those receivers, and he was tied with two other players with four targets. He was also on the field 77 percent of the time, which is a good sign for a rookie WR in his first NFL action.
The Browns defense also did not look phenomenal in its Week 1 matchup against the Cowboys, either. Granted, the Browns offense did no favors for their defense, but even before the game got out of hand, the Cowboys were able to move the ball with relative ease.
On the Cowboys' second drive of the game, which began with Dallas down 3-0, they were able to drive 70 yards on six plays to score a touchdown. Later in the first half, with a 7-3 lead, Dallas drove 78 yards on 11 plays for a touchdown, taking 5:56 off the clock.
Between his significant role in the Jags' offense and the Browns' defensive struggles a week ago, there's good reason to believe four receptions is within reach for Thomas Jr. as he continues to shine as a rookie.
Units: 1.00
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