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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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This Thursday Night Football matchup is a good one, as we have the 3-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading to Atlanta to take on the 2-2 Falcons. This game is scheduled to kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Both teams are coming off of victories, with the Buccaneers dominating the Eagles from the jump last Sunday, while the Falcons beat the Saints in a game that came down to the wire.
For this game, the Falcons are slight favorites at -1.5 across most books. For this article, however, we will be providing the best NFL player props for Thursday Night Football.
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Bijan Robinson o26.5 Rec. Yards (-110) Bet365
On the season so far, running backs have had good receiving stats against the Bucs. The reason for that is the Bucs have a very stout run defense.
Their season-long stats do not reflect that, but that is because DT Vita Vea has missed time. Last year, though, the Buccaneers allowed the eighth-lowest yards per carry and had the eighth-best rush defense, according to DVOA.
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Running backs have, however, done damage through the air against the Bucs. Through four games, opposing RBs have averaged the second-most yards (60.8) and receptions (6.5) against the Bucs defense.
We will get into this in more detail with our next prop, but the Bucs play zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and Robinson is third on the Falcons in yards per route run against zone coverage.
This prop (26.5 yards) is a milestone that Robinson has hit in two of four games so far, and he landed on exactly 25 receiving yards in another contest. Either way, this is still priced too low. What is nice about backing Robinson is that he gets consistent targets out of the backfield for the Falcons.
He is fourth on the team in total targets and target percentage, but because he is being targeted out of the backfield, he has a high catch rate of 93.8 percent and is tied for the second-most receptions. In addition, he has the third-highest yards per route run on the Falcons, with the third-most yards per target as well.
Lastly, he leads Atlanta in designed targets with seven. The next-closest players on the Falcons have four each.
So, this is a strong play because of how low the number is, and how consistent the receiving work is for Robinson, along with a great matchup against the Bucs.
Bijan Robinson 25+ receiving yards (-110): 0.50 Units
Mike Evans o60.5 Rec. Yards (-110) Bet365
Our second play of the evening is another receiving yards prop, this time backing the No. 1 receiver for the Bucs to hit his receiving prop.
Evans has hit this in two of four games so far this year, and after doing it last week against the Eagles, we like him to go over once again.
The Falcons defense has been good this year, admittedly, but it has struggled against opposing No. 1 receivers through four games.
Here is what each team's top receiver has done against the Falcons this year:
- George Pickens (PIT, WK 1): Six receptions for 85 yards
- DeVonta Smith (PHI, WK 2)*: Seven receptions for 76 yards
- Rashee Rice (KC, WK 3): 12 receptions for 110 yards
- Chris Olave (NO, WK 4): Eight receptions for 87 yards
Pickens, Smith, Rice and Olave all went for well over 60.5 yards, and all four exceeded their over/under receiving yards line in those games.
Since none of these receivers got into the end zone, the Falcons are not known as a team to target opposing No. 1 receivers against, which gives us some value on this Evans prop.
For context, DVOA has the Falcons ranked 17th against No. 1 receivers, which is still below average, but would not necessarily come across as a defense that should be looked at for these types of props.
*Top Eagles WR A.J. Brown missed this game
Mike Evans over 60.5 receiving yards (-110): 1 Unit
Ray-Ray McCloud o33.5 Rec. Yards (-110) Bet365
McCloud has quietly been pretty involved for the Falcons, and it has continued game-over-game. Not only that, but this should be a great matchup for him based on the type of defense that the Bucs play.
He is essentially the third receiver on the Falcons, behind Drake London and Darnell Mooney. He is third on the Falcons in the following categories: routes run, route participations, target rate and first-read targets.
With that said, he is tied with three other players for second on the team with 15 receptions. McCloud also has the third-highest catch rate on the Falcons, but the highest among the WRs and TEs -- only RBs Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have a higher catch rate than McCloud.
He is also tied with Mooney with the second-most designed targets, with four.
All these stats show you how involved McCloud is, which has led to 52 yards in Week 1 on seven targets; four receptions for 42 yards in Week 2 on five targets; three receptions, 17 yards in Week 3 on only three targets (his only bad game of the year); and 52 yards in Week 4 on another seven targets.
This is also a great matchup for McCloud, as he is the zone beater for the Falcons. The Bucs play zone at the highest rate in the league, at 84.4 percent, including cover 3 at the third-highest rate (45.5 percent), according to Fantasy Points.
McCloud, meanwhile, has the highest yards per route run against zone coverage on the Falcons (2.26), with both the best separation score and the best win rate against cover 3, also per FantasyPoints.
Ray Ray McCloud over 33.5 receiving yards (-110): 1 Unit
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