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By John Feng and Shane Croucher
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North Korea's involvement in Russia's war on Ukraine has generated more than $20 billion for its economy so far, according to a recent estimate, and is helping Pyongyang to acquire even more high-tech weapons.
The South's Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) think tank published a report outlining the potential value of North Korea's military cooperation with Russia as it supports Moscow's ongoing Ukraine invasion.
Why It Matters
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022, has lasted much longer than Moscow thought it would, largely due to vital military aid supplied to Kyiv by the U.S. and other Western allies.
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The strength of Ukraine's defense and the deleterious impact of Western sanctions on its economy have forced Russia to seek support in its war from its partners, including China, Iran and North Korea.
These deepening partnerships pose a strategic challenge to the U.S., which is facing down all three hostile states across the world. The Trump administration is also seeking to swiftly end the Ukraine war, which North Korea is fueling by aiding Russia.
What to Know
The KIDA report said the vast majority of the economic benefit to North Korea has been through its supply of munitions to Russia, but it has also benefited from sending thousands of troops to fight against Ukraine and offering technical support.
Troop losses have been heavy, however, and around 4,000 are believed to have died of the 11,000 North Korea has sent. They were mostly fighting in Russia's Kursk region to fend off a cross-border incursion by Ukrainian forces.
North Korea probably prefers "in-kind and technical assistance" from Russia in exchange for its support, KIDA said, including high-tech weapons that help strengthen its military capabilities and advance its strategic goals.
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There is an urgent need to end the Ukraine war and for measures to block Russia-North Korea military cooperation, and a long-term strategy to respond to it once the conflict stops, the report's authors said.
KIDA's report chimes with a separate analysis by the Open Source Centre (OSC) and Reuters, which estimate that North Korea had shipped more than 15,800 containers of munitions to Russia between August 2023 and March 2025.
The OSC and Reuters used satellite images and detailed three-dimensional images to make their calculation that 64 shipments by four Russian vessels likely carried between 4.2 million and 5.8 million individual munitions from North Korea.
What People Are Saying
KIDA's report said: "Russia-North Korea military cooperation raises the chances of Russia stepping in on the Korean peninsula if there's an emergency."
The OSC report said: "The North Korean munitions pipeline presents a significant strategic challenge. By enabling Russia to maintain its offensive momentum, it undermines the effectiveness of Western military assistance to Ukraine.
"If left unaddressed, this flow of arms could tilt the battlefield further in Moscow's favour and accelerate broader security risks across both Europe and East Asia."
What's Next
Russia continues to rely on North Korean support for its war as it seeks to gain as much battlefield advantage as possible for the eventual peace talks.
The U.S.-brokered negotiations to bring about peace continue, but progress is slow and the issues are complex, with major disagreements over recognition of territory and the future of Ukrainian security.
Shipments such as those by North Korea enable the fighting to continue, and it will likely do so for some time, given the fraying U.S.-Ukraine relationship and Russia's own red lines.
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