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By Micah McCartney
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A senior White House aide issued a warning last week that the United States may deploy more strategic nuclear weapons, "absent a change in adversary arsenals."
"We need to be fully prepared to execute if the president makes that decision," Pranay Vaddi, special assistant to the president and senior director for arms control at the White House, told the Arms Control Association.
Though the gross number of the world's nuclear weapons is shrinking as a result of Russia and the U.S. disassembling retired warheads, the reduction is slowing.
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China, Russia and North Korea are "all expanding and diversifying their nuclear arsenals at a breakneck pace," Vaddi said.
Researchers with the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) wrote in a report this year that China, Russia, North Korea, Pakistan, India, the United Kingdom and possibly Russia are "thought to be increasing their stockpiles."
The FAS report, published this year, estimated the size and make-up of the nuclear powers' stockpiles. The think tank said it based its estimates on publicly accessible information, analysis of records and "occasional leaks."
A Newsweek chart illustrates these estimates, with a comparison of the U.S. and nuclear-armed adversaries below.
U.S.
The U.S. is believed to have 5,044 nuclear warheads, 1,336 of which have been retired and are slated to be dismantled.
Of the remainder, 1,938 are reserves kept in storage rather than deployed. Some 100 are deployed nonstrategic warheads, or those based at military installations along with short-range launch systems.
Another 1,670 are deployed on intercontinental missiles or at bases that house strategic long-range bombers like the B-52 Stratofortress.
Russia
Moscow edges Washington in the size of its nuclear stockpile, with the former Cold War foes combining for about 84 percent of warheads available for use, per the FAS.
Russia's estimated 5,580 warheads include 1,200 that are to be retired and 2,670 in reserve. Virtually none are believed to be deployed on "nonstrategic" short-range delivery systems, while 1,710 are deployed strategically.
Amid tensions with NATO over Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow suspended its participation in the New START treaty signed in 2010 along with Washington to place caps on deployed nuclear weapons.
Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered exercises with tactical nuclear weapons in response to what the country's defense ministry called "provocative statements and threats" by Western officials.
China
China comes in third with roughly 500 nuclear warheads, none of which are believed to be deployed. However, expansion of its nuclear arsenal has been picking up speed.
The U.S. Department of Defense estimated China's nuclear weapons total to be in the low 200s in 2020. Its stockpile is on track to reach 700 warheads by 2027 and more than 1,000 by 2030, the Pentagon estimated last year in its annual China Military Power Report.
China has also been building out its rapid nuclear counterattack potential with the construction of hundreds of missile silos.
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China, the only country besides India to maintain an official no-first-use policy on nuclear weapons, this year renewed its call for talks on a treaty on arsenal reduction and non-first-strike commitments among major nuclear powers.
A Pentagon spokesperson previously told Newsweek that the U.S. has concerns over the verifiability of such a treaty, saying: "The People's Republic of China's massive build-up of its nuclear arsenal is in apparent tension with its declared 'no first use' policy, calling into question what such an initiative aims to achieve."
North Korea
North Korea is estimated to have developed about 50 warheads.
The reclusive country is subject to United Nations Security Council sanctions meant to curb its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Pyongyang maintains it requires nuclear weapons as a deterrent and last year enshrined the policy into its constitution amid flaring tensions with Seoul. The U.S. and South Korea have warned that the Kim regime would be brought to an end if the North used its nuclear warheads.
Newsweek reached out to the Russian and North Korean foreign ministries outside of office hours for comment.
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