One Week From Election, What Trump vs Biden Forecasts Are Saying

The presidential election is just one week away and most national polling shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a strong lead over President Donald Trump ahead of November 3.

More than 60 million ballots have reportedly been cast already and many states have broken records for early voting. There is speculation that 2020 could see the highest turnout since 1908, with 65 percent of eligible voters expected to take part—that is around 150 million votes.

The outcome of the election will likely be decided in crucial swing states, where Trump secured the White House in 2016. Though the race is narrower in some of these states, Biden is still ahead in polling for several states that Trump won last time around.

Nationally, Biden leads Trump by 9.4 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker. This is down from a high of 10.7 on October 19.

The RealClearPolitics' polling average has Biden ahead 7.8 percent. RCP showed the Democrat leading by 10.3 percent on October 11.

But nationwide poll averages do not tell the whole story. Trump won the electoral college vote in 2016 with very narrow victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those states were formerly considered part of the Democratic "Blue Wall."

In these states, FiveThirtyEight's aggregate of polls suggests Biden holds a lead seven days before the election: up 8.3 percent in Michigan, 5.1 percent in Pennsylvania and 7.1 percent in Wisconsin.

Florida is another key swing state that many consider to be a must-win for Trump. Yet the president is behind 2.3 percent there, according to polls on FiveThirtyEight. RCP also shows Biden ahead by 1.8 percent in the Sunshine State.

Some prominent election forecasters believe Biden will win the election. FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrat an 87 percent chance of victory compared to Trump's 12 percent.

Political scientist Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, based at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, also predicts Biden will win but notes that FiveThirtyEight's analysis is "much more complex."

In his Crystal Ball newsletter, Sabato has suggested that Biden could win more than 300 electoral college votes and Trump's tally could dip below 200. The last time this happened was in 2008, when President Barack Obama won 365 electoral college votes, compared to Senator John McCain's 173.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report predicted on September 29 that Biden will win the race for the White House by securing at least 290 electoral college votes. Its forecast gave Trump just 163 solid electoral college votes.

The RealClearPolitics electoral college map shows Biden leading but not having currently secured enough votes to win election, while the Economist newspaper gives Biden a 95 percent chance of winning the election, with between 250 and 421 electoral college votes.

The results may not be fully known on election night, however, because so many mail-in ballots have been cast this year. It could be a while before the final outcome is clear.

Trump and Biden at the Final Debate
Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden answers a question as President Donald Trump listens during the second and final presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, on October 22, 2020. There's just one week before the presidential election on November 3. Morry Gash-Pool/Getty Images