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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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The likelihood that U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi will be the first individual to leave President Donald Trump's Cabinet has surged on prediction markets, surpassing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, whose chances of departing have also recently been high.
Bondi has faced pressure over the government's handling of files associated with Jeffrey Epstein, a convicted sex offender who died in a New York jail in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges. On Wednesday, she was questioned by the House Judiciary Committee about the matter in an oversight hearing on Capitol Hill.
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Since then, according to prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, her chances of leaving Trump's cabinet have increased.
Newsweek reached out to the Department of Homeland Security and the Justice Department to comment on this story outside of normal business hours
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Why It Matters
The release of files related to Epstein has sparked a political firestorm for the White House at an inopportune moment for President Donald Trump and Republicans, who face the prospect of a midterm elections wipeout in November.
Losing a senior member of his team would risk damaging Trump’s reputation and could undermine public confidence in his judgment and recruitment decisions, adding to the political headwinds.
What To Know
As per Kalshi, on February 11 Bondi had a 12 percent chance of being the first to leave the Cabinet. By February 12 her odds had increased to 22 percent.
Meanwhile, Polymarket said she had a 52 percent chance of leaving the cabinet. This is a seven percent increase from February 11 when her chances stood at 45 percent.
Noem, on the other hand, has faced pressure of her own over DHS' handling of the death of two U.S. citizens at the hands of federal agents.
Alex Pretti, an ICU nurse, was shot dead by a federal immigration agent in Minneapolis in January during a federal immigration enforcement operation. His killing was the second fatal shooting of a U.S. citizen by a federal immigration officer in Minneapolis that month, following the January 7 death of Renee Good, who was killed by an ICE agent during another enforcement action.
Illinois Democratic Representative Robin Kelly formally introduced three articles of impeachment against Noem on January 14, accusing her of obstruction of Congress, violation of public trust and self-dealing.
Kalshi indicates she has a 16 percent chance of leaving the Cabinet first while Polymarket puts her chances at 49 percent.
During the Wednesday hearing, Bondi addressed survivors during her opening statement, saying she was “deeply sorry” for what they suffered and that “any accusations of criminal wrongdoing will be taken seriously and investigated.”
Representative Jamie Raskin, a Maryland Democrat, accused Bondi of failing to properly redact some victims’ names, calling it “jaded cruelty,” and alleged she ignored the law.
Meanwhile, the chances of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick leaving President Donald Trump’s Cabinet have also spiked as he faces calls to resign after he acknowledged that he met with Epstein twice after the financier’s 2008 conviction for soliciting prostitution from a child. He had previously said that he had decided to “never be in the room” with Epstein again after a 2005 tour of Epstein’s home.
Kalshi offered a 22 percent chance of Lutnick being the next to leave Trump’s Cabinet on Wednesday, up from just 8 percent a week ago.
A spokesperson for the Commerce Department told Newsweek that Lutnick does not intend to step down before January 20, 2029. The White House has stood by the commerce secretary, with a spokesperson telling Newsweek that Trump “has assembled the best and most transformative Cabinet in modern history” and the administration, including Lutnick, “remains focused on delivering for the American people.”
What People Are Saying
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters earlier this month: "Secretary Noem still has the utmost confidence and trust of the president of the United States, and she's continuing to oversee the entire Department of Homeland Security and all of the immigration enforcement that's taking place across the whole entire country."
What Happens Next
For either Bondi or Noem to leave the Cabinet they would either have to resign, be impeached and convicted by Congress, or fired by Trump. None seem likely given the Republican Party's majorities in both chambers of Congress and Trump's support of the two Cabinet members.
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Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the prediction market operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Prediction market operators have no influence over newsroom coverage. The probabilities referenced in this story are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Update, 02/12/2026, 5:43 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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