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By Andrew Stanton
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Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket showed a surging likelihood of former Attorney General Pam Bondi's removal before President Donald Trump announced her firing on Thursday.
Why It Matters
Bondi’s exit comes after she has faced backlash over her handling of the release of documents related to federal investigations into the late financier Jeffrey Epstein, who died by suicide in a New York federal jail in 2019 while awaiting trial on charges of sex trafficking. Trump campaigned on releasing the Epstein files, but Bondi has faced criticism over their slow release and redactions in the files.
Read More on Politics
The files have become a political quagmire for Trump, who has faced pressure from his base on their release. A recent YouGov poll found that 68 percent of Americans believe the government is “covering up evidence” about Epstein, and only 26 percent of Americans approve of the way Trump has handled the matter. Among Republicans, 56 percent approved of his handling of Epstein. It surveyed 1,124 adults from February 27 to March 2, 2026.
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What to Know
Trump confirmed Bondi's firing in a post on Truth Social.
"Pam Bondi is a Great American Patriot and a loyal friend, who faithfully served as my Attorney General over the past year. Pam did a tremendous job overseeing a massive crackdown in Crime across our Country, with Murders plummeting to their lowest level since 1900. We love Pam, and she will be transitioning to a much needed and important new job in the private sector, to be announced at a date in the near future, and our Deputy Attorney General, and a very talented and respected Legal Mind, Todd Blanche, will step in to serve as Acting Attorney General. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP," he wrote.
Prediction markets indicated a higher likelihood of her departure as rumors swirled this week. The New York Times reported on Wednesday that Trump has discussed firing the attorney general amid frustration over the Epstein files. He has reportedly floated Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin as a potential replacement.
Prediction markets on Thursday morning showed that the odds of Bondi’s departure have soared. Kalshi’s market showed a 78 percent chance that she will be out as attorney general by May 1, a 91 percent chance of her departure by June 1 and a 93 percent chance she will leave her role by September 1.
That marks a notable increase from one week earlier, when it showed a 14 percent chance she would leave her post by May and a 40 percent chance by September.
Polymarket’s odds showed a 40 percent chance she will be out as attorney general by April 15, and a 51 percent chance she will leave the post by April 30. It gave a 74 percent chance of a departure by June 30 and a 93 percent chance she will leave by December 31.
She is the second high-profile cabinet member to leave their post in recent months after former Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, who left her position in March.
Pam Bondi Popularity: What Polls Show
A survey by YouGov and The Economist found that 23 percent of Americans view Bondi favorably, compared with 48 percent who view her unfavorably. It surveyed 1,563 adults from March 6-9, 2026.
A Quinnipiac University poll showed that 31 percent of Americans approve of Bondi’s job performance, while 51 percent disapprove. It surveyed 1,035 registered voters from December 11-15, 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points
Trump Admin Faces Criticism Over Epstein Files
The Trump administration has faced bipartisan criticism over its handling of the Epstein files. Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who represented Georgia in Congress until earlier this year and has turned on Trump in part due to the files, warned that his biggest “miscalculation” was calling the files a “hoax.”
Meanwhile, some Democrats have called for Bondi’s impeachment.
Congress passed a bill compelling the DOJ to release the Epstein files late last year. The bill allows redactions to protect the identities of victims or minors and ensure ongoing investigations are not compromised. However, critics have accused the DOJ of going too far with redactions, raising concerns about whether it violates the bill.
What People Are Saying
Republican Congressman Thomas Massie, on X last month: "Releasing the Epstein files is not the end goal. Until we see investigations and arrests, our system of justice is not working."
Representative Robert Garcia, a California Democrat, on X Thursday: “It’s time to FIRE Attorney General Pam Bondi and RELEASE the Epstein files.”
Representative Nancy Mace, a South Carolina Republican, on X Thursday: “If the reports that Lee Zeldin will be replacing Pam Bondi as Attorney General are true - I welcome it. Bondi handled the Epstein Files in a terrible manner and made this situation far worse than it had to be for President Trump. I look forward to a new Attorney General committed to getting justice for the victims of Jeffrey Epstein.”
What Happens Next
Trump has named Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche as the acting attorney general. Any official nominee Trump makes will need Senate confirmation. More details about Bondi's new position have not been made public.
Update 4/2/26, 1:15 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Update 4/2/26, 3:35 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the prediction market operator’s terms and conditions for important details. The probabilities referenced in this story are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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