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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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Minnesota's record-breaking early voter turnout is rising fastest in seven rural counties previously won by President Donald Trump, offering a potentially encouraging sign for Republican Michele Tafoya in the state's closely watched Senate race against Democrat Peggy Flanagan, though some analysts warn the turnout data is not a reliable predictor of which party will benefit once all ballots have been cast.
Several key Senate races are unfolding this year that will determine control of Congress. Republicans seek to defend their narrow House and Senate majorities and Democrats look to capitalize on competitive races that could flip control of both chambers in their favor. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate and a net gain of three seats to win control of the House.
In Minnesota, Democratic Senator Tina Smith is retiring when her term ends on January 3, which leaves an open Senate seat. While Minnesota has long been considered a Democratic stronghold, Tafoya has gained ground during this election cycle. Corruption has emerged as a key issue for voters, with both candidates using it as a line of attack. Flanagan has centered much of her messaging on allegations of corruption tied to Trump, while Tafoya has sought to link Flanagan to controversies that have occurred during her tenure as lieutenant governor under Governor Tim Walz.
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Newsweek reached out to both campaigns by email for comment on Monday afternoon.
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Early Voting Turnout in Minnesota Shatters Midterm Records
The closely watched midterm elections have led to a surge in early voting this election cycle, with several states having broken records, including Texas, where early voting began with a record 19 million registered voters eligible to cast ballots, and Georgia, where in-person early voting set a record last week at more than 2.2 million voters.
Minnesota has also seen record-breaking turnout as of last week. More than 886,000 Minnesotans have voted early in-person or by absentee ballot as of Sunday, Minnesota's Secretary of State's Office reported. In 2022, the last non-presidential election, there were 687,062 ballots cast during early voting in Minnesota.
Minnesota's record-breaking early turnout is not confined to Democratic strongholds. Although large numbers of ballots have been cast in Minneapolis and other blue areas, seven rural counties previously won by Trump have seen some of the state's fastest growth in early voting since 2022, a trend that could be encouraging for Republicans in the competitive Senate race. The seven counties are Swift, Clearwater, Chisago, Renville, Rice, Wadena, and Winona, according to an Axios report on Monday.
"The Republicans have their best shot in 20 years at winning the state," Hamline University professor of political science and legal studies David Schultz recently told Newsweek, crediting the state's issues with corruption and "Democratic Party fatigue" as reasons why Republicans might secure a win. He added that he would not be surprised if Tafoya won the election.
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Meanwhile, the high voter turnout comes as both candidates have urged voters to get to the polls to cast their ballots.
"Elections here are won by the people who show up. This race is going to be close, and every single ballot will make a difference," Tafoya posted on X on Monday. "Bring your family, your neighbors, and anyone who’s ready for a change. Tomorrow, we can restore accountability in Washington."
"Minnesota, if you’re ready to: Hold Donald Trump accountable for his corruption. End the war. Pass Medicare for All. Ban prior authorization. Rip ICE apart. Raise the wage. Block the bombs. Save Social Security. Make your plan to vote by 8 PM tomorrow," Flanagan posted on X on Monday.
Flanagan vs. Tafoya: What Latest Polls Show
Flanagan is leading Tafoya in all recent polls.
- Research Co.: Flanagan had a five-point lead over Tafoya in this poll, which was conducted between October 30 and November 1 and surveyed 450 likely voters, with 52 percent who preferred Flanagan as opposed to 47 percent who said Tafoya. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.
- InsiderAdvantage: An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted between October 29 and 30 of 1,200 likely voters found that 49 percent of polltakers said they planned to vote for Flanagan, as opposed to 46 percent who said Tafoya. The margin of error is +/- 2.83 percentage points. An earlier InsiderAdvantage poll that surveyed 1,200 likely voters between September 28 and 29 found Flanagan had only a one-point lead over Tafoya at 46 percent to Tafoya's 45 percent. The margin of error is +/- 2.95 percentage points.
- New York Times/Siena University: This poll surveyed 752 Minnesota voters between October 19 and 26. When asked who they would vote for in the November election, 54 percent of respondents said Flanagan, while only 40 percent said Tafoya. The poll, which has a margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points, is an outlier and gives Flanagan her largest lead over Tafoya yet, more than tripling her lead in most other polls.
- Quantus Insights: This poll of 720 likely voters was conducted between September 8 and 10 and gave Flanagan a four-point lead over Tafoya at 48 percent to Tafoya's 44 percent. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.
What Prediction Markets Show
In prediction markets as of Monday evening, Flanagan is strongly favored among traders. Kalshi traders give Flanagan 91.6 percent odds of winning, compared to Tafoya at 8.4 percent. On Polymarket, Flanagan's odds are even greater at 94 percent, compared to Tafoya's 7 percent.
Is Minnesota a Blue State?
Minnesota last voted for a Republican at the presidential level in 1972, but it has still been close in recent contests, giving Democrats only narrow victories.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by only about four points in 2024, a narrower win than former President Joe Biden’s seven-point victory in 2020.
In 2016, Minnesota backed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by less than two percentage points. Former President Barack Obama did better in the state, carrying it by nearly eight points in 2012 and more than 10 points in 2008.
Minnesota last elected a Republican senator in 2002, backing Norm Coleman. In 2008, he lost reelection to Democrat Al Franken.
What Happens Next
Early voting ended in Minnesota on Monday. Polls will open again on Tuesday morning for Election Day. They will close at 8 p.m. local time in Minnesota. As long as voters are in line by the time polls close, they will be allowed to vote.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Anthony Murray and Anna Skinner.
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