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By Andrew Stanton
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Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Representative Angie Craig are engaged in a competitive race heading into Tuesday's Minnesota Democratic Senate primary, another key electoral test for progressives after a wave of recent victories.
Flanagan is viewed as the progressive pick in the race to succeed Democratic Senator Tina Smith, who is retiring at the end of the current term, while Craig is seen as the more moderate Democratic candidate. Progressives are on a winning streak, having won primaries in states like Michigan, New York and Colorado, and Minnesota presents them with another opportunity to elect a more left-leaning candidate in a state that is considered to lean toward Democrats.
Minnesota backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about four points in 2024, and Democrats are viewed as having an advantage in this year’s midterms due to a more favorable national environment driven by President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating.
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But it’s not an overwhelmingly Democratic state, so the question of electability has been central in the primary.
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Flanagan's supporters believe a left-leaning state should elect a more progressive senator, such as Smith, who has endorsed Flanagan. They have raised concern about Craig’s past votes on immigration issues.
However, Craig supporters note that she has a proven track record of winning in a competitive district, having flipped a Trump district in the 2018 midterms in the Twin Cities suburbs, and that Flanagan could be vulnerable to Republican attacks about the way Governor Tim Walz’s administration has handled a fraud scandal in the state.
Lexi Byler, Flanagan’s communications director, wrote in a statement to Newsweek, “If you need $20 million in outside dark money spending just to keep it close in a couple polls, you’ve got a real problem on your hands.”
Mara Kunin, campaign manager for Angie Craig for Minnesota, wrote in a statement that polls show Craig surging.
“National and state Republicans are making a serious play for this Senate seat and primary voters understand that we can’t risk putting up a weak candidate in the general election. Whether it’s standing up to Donald Trump or keeping Minnesota’s Senate seat blue, Angie is leading on the issues DFLers [supporters of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party] care most about while Peggy Flanagan’s numbers continue to plummet,” Kunin wrote.
Peggy Flanagan vs. Angie Craig: What Final Polls Show
The latest polls of Minnesotans show a competitive race between Flanagan and Craig in the final days before Election Day.
A SurveyUSA poll, sponsored by KSTP-TV, showed Craig with a 2-point lead, 42 percent to 40 percent. It surveyed 578 likely voters from July 29 to August 4.
But a Public Policy Polling review, which surveyed 672 likely voters on July 23 and July 24, showed Flanagan up 14 points, 46 percent to 32 percent, with 22 percent undecided. It was sponsored by the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, which has supported Flanagan.
An earlier SurveyUSA poll, sponsored by KSTP-TV, KAAL-TV and WDIO-TV, pointed to a close race, with each candidate receiving 40 percent support. It was conducted from July 15 to July 20 among 513 likely voters.
David Schultz, professor of political science at Hamline University, told Newsweek that youth turnout is a major question for the outcome of the primary.
“Even when younger voters tell pollsters that they intend to vote, their actual turnout is often substantially lower. This matters because a core part of Flanagan's support is likely to come from younger voters, including students,” he said.
He noted that in Michigan, progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed held a larger polling lead but ultimately eked out a victory over centrist Representative Haley Stevens.
“Maybe that is partly a story about bad polling, but it is also a story about turnout. We know that people under 30 generally have dramatically lower turnout rates than people over 30,” he said.
Immigration Is Key Issue
Flanagan has been critical of Craig’s stance on immigration in Minnesota, where the issue may hit home for many voters.
The North Star State became the epicenter of the Trump administration’s ramped-up immigration enforcement earlier this year. Two American citizens, Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti, were fatally shot by immigration officers in January amid protests in Minneapolis, fueling anger over the White House's hard-line approach to immigration and border security.
Craig’s vote in support of the Laken Riley Act, which was passed in January 2025, has become a sticking point among many progressive voters. Craig has said she regrets voting for the bill.
“It is true that the president is not using any laws to carry out these sweeping immigration raids that have terrorized Minnesotans, but it’s also become clear that supporting any bill that gives ICE new authority in this administration was the wrong decision. And I regret my vote,” she wrote in The Minneapolis Star-Tribune in March.
Schultz said that Flanagan is “trying to make it about immigration and the Metro Surge, arguing that Craig was too weak in opposing Trump because she supported the Laken Riley Act.”
“Those issues matter, but I think there are other dynamics at play that are being underappreciated. Turnout, money, organization, and the age profiles of the two candidates' supporters may prove just as important,” he said.
Minnesota Is Latest Battle Between Progressives and Moderates
Flanagan has received support from national progressive figures like Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat and Representative Ilhan Omar, a Minnesota Democrat. Moderates such as former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg have backed Craig’s campaign.
The race comes just one week after El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan, a key win for the left in a critical swing state. Progressives are hoping to pull off another victory in Minnesota on Tuesday.
Schultz said that “on one level,” the race is a contest between the progressive and establishment wings of the Democratic Party.
“However, Minnesota is not Michigan, and it is not New York City. Among the things we need to consider in this race is that Lieutenant Governor Flanagan has never won a statewide race on her own. She has won statewide as lieutenant governor as part of the Walz ticket,” he said.
Therefore, Flanagan is “relatively untested,” and the state is more conservative outside of the Twin Cities area, he said.
“That raises the question of whether she has sufficient appeal statewide, including within the Democratic Party, even though roughly 55 percent of the statewide vote comes from the Twin Cities metropolitan area,” he said.
Sanders said on CBS News’ Face the Nation over the weekend that he is not confident in Flanagan’s chances, saying it is going to be a “tight race” and that he hopes “very much that Peggy wins.”
“People are tired of status quo politics and establishment policies. They want real change and Peggy Flanagan is about bringing about real change, standing up to the big-money interests,” he said. “There is a reason why the super PACs and billionaires are flooding Minnesota with all kinds of money. The same thing as Michigan. They don’t want somebody to stand up for the working class in Minnesota.”
What Do Prediction Markets Show?
Prediction markets favored Flanagan as of Monday afternoon, with both Kalshi and Polymarket giving her a 72 percent chance of victory.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Is Minnesota a Blue State?
Republicans have targeted Minnesota in recent elections but have fallen short, as the state has retained its status as light blue.
Minnesota last voted for a Republican at the presidential level in 1972 but has still given Democrats narrow margins in the latest presidential races. Harris carried the state by only about 4 points in 2024, a narrower win than former President Joe Biden’s 7-point victory in 2020.
In 2016, Minnesota backed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by less than 2 percentage points. Former President Barack Obama did better in the state—carrying it by nearly 8 points in 2012 and more than 10 points in 2008.
Minnesota last elected a Republican senator in 2002, backing Republican Norm Coleman. In 2008, he lost reelection to Democrat Al Franken.
What Happens Next
Minnesota's polls are usually open from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m., according to its secretary of state’s office. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball consider the race to be Likely Democratic.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gabe Whisnant and Edward T. Cummins.
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