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By Andrew Stanton
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New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said this week he is not ruling out the possibility of redrawing the state's Congressional districts to counter Texas Republicans' redraw efforts.
However, any attempt at changing the Garden State's Congressional boundaries will face a major legal roadblock, Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, told Newsweek.
"The New Jersey Constitution explicitly forbids a mid-decade redistricting, unless the state's districts are struck down by a court, so the odds of New Jersey redistricting are slim to none," Cassino said.
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Newsweek reached out to the New Jersey Democratic and Republican parties, as well as Murphy's office, for comment.
Why It Matters
Democrats and Republicans are facing a growing "arms race" over Congressional redistricting ahead of the 2026 midterm elections after Texas Republicans, with the support of President Donald Trump, entered a special session to address their redraw. Trump has said he'd like to see Republicans gain five new seats from the process.
Democrats are now responding by warning they could redraw Congressional lines in blue-leaning states. California Governor Gavin Newsom has said the state could retaliate, and Murphy has not ruled it out, he told reporters this week. These redistricting battles could have key implications for the midterms, when Democrats are hoping to win back a House majority.
What To Know
Murphy said on Monday there are no current plans to alter New Jersey's district lines but that it is "too early" to make a definitive statement on the matter, reported The New Jersey Globe. He also said it could be a conversation for Democratic governors in upcoming meetings.
"I suspect as the Democratic governors get together for a drink or a coffee, this will be high on the agenda," he said.
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However, Democrats would have needed to have already started the process of changing the law if they wanted to redraw their boundaries by next November, Cassino said.
"Of course, this is Jersey, so the fact that something wouldn't be strictly legal hasn't always stopped folks from trying things in the past, but this would also require gutting the bi-partisan committee that redraws the districts, so it's not something that could be forced through easily or without a great deal of controversy," he said.
It could also be risky to Democratic incumbents, he said.
"Moreover, while you could draw one more Dem-leaning district in the state, you could only do so by making some existing districts a lot more competitive: the exact opposite of what Democrats proposed in 2020, when they shored up Dem districts, at a cost of making one district more friendly to Republicans. That would be dangerous, if not in 2028, then in later elections, where it would leave Democrats vulnerable to a wave election," he said.
Currently, Democrats hold nine of the state's 12 Congressional districts and are targeting New Jersey's Seventh Congressional District, a battleground held by Republican Representative Tom Kean.
Additionally, Democratic Representative Nellie Pou represents a Trump-won district based around Paterson, which was once a Democratic stronghold but shifted to the right last November. Democratic Representatives Herb Conaway, Josh Gottheimer, Frank Pallone and Mikie Sherrill all represent seats that former Vice President Kamala Harris won by a single-digit margin last November.
Redistricting 'Arms Race' Ahead of Midterms
Texas Governor Greg Abbott called for a special session that began on Monday to address several topics of concern, including redistricting.
Republicans are hoping to thwart losses in the midterms. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterms. In 2018, Democrats gained 41 seats to reclaim control of the House.
Newsom responded to the news about Texas' redistricting in an X post earlier this month, writing, "Two can play this game."
However, California has an independent redistricting committee, passed by the state's voters in 2010, so it's not clear if the state could legally do so. Many Democratic-leaning states similarly have independent commissions, limiting the party's ability to respond to the move from Texas.
There are other potential redraws in Ohio, where Republicans are hoping to make a few Democratic-held seats more conservative, and Utah, where Democrats are hoping to see a newly drawn Salt Lake City seat that would lean to the left.
What People Are Saying
Dan Cassino told Newsweek: "I don't think that there is going to be any serious attempt to redraw the districts before 2030, but I don't think any such attempt would make much of a difference in the gubernatorial election. These sort of process issues rarely resonate with New Jersey voters, and anyone who is paying attention right now is paying a lot more attention to the news out of Washington"
Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket wrote on X on Sunday: "This is some of the most speculative cope I've seen. Democrats don't have a House majority in Minnesota right now and would likely require amendments in California, New York, New Jersey, and Washington."
What Happens Next
With the Texas special session underway, blue states will continue exploring ways to counter the redraw effort. Any attempt to alter New Jersey's map faces significant legal barriers, however.
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