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By Andrew Stanton
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Democratic voters’ picks for the 2028 presidential primary race were revealed in a new poll released on Friday.
Newsweek reached out to each campaign for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Early polling provides insights into candidates’ viability and voter sentiments as they weigh whether to jump into the 2028 presidential race. Several prominent Democrats, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have been floated as likely contenders.
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The poll comes as several prospective candidates attend the Munich Security Conference, providing them with an opportunity to share their vision for American foreign policy.
What To Know
According to a poll conducted by Focaldata, Harris is the early favorite to win the Democratic nomination if she runs in 2028. Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they would support her candidacy. Newsom followed with 21 percent support, while 10 percent backed Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite among progressives.
Both former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro received 7 percent of respondents' support, and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly received 6 percent.
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Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer followed at 4 percent, while Illinois Governor JB Pritzker had support from 3 percent of Democrats in the poll.
Two potential candidates received 1 percent of the vote: Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff.
The poll surveyed 1,148 voters on February 10, 2026.
Early polling is “confirming what is widely perceived that voters are disappointed by [President Donald] Trump's performance and this is hurting Republicans in the midterm election polling,” Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University, told Newsweek.
How Democratic Poll Compares to Earlier Survey
Another recent poll from Harvard/Harris similarly found Harris leading with 39 percent; Newsom followed with 30 percent, while 12 percent said they would back Ocasio-Cortez. Nine percent said they intend to vote for Shapiro, and 7 percent said they support Pritzker.
Only 4 percent said they would vote for someone sle.
The poll surveyed 2,000 registered voters on January 28 and January 29 and has a margin of error of 1.99 percent.
Democrats’ 2028 Betting Odds on Kalshi
While Harris is leading early polling of the primary, Kalshi’s betting odds market favors Newsom, giving him a 32 percent chance of victory. Ocasio-Cortez follows at 9 percent. Harris, Ossoff and Shapiro all have a 7 percent chance of becoming the party’s nominee.
Pritzker has a 6 percent chance of winning the primary, while Buttigieg has a 5 percent chance. The market gives Beshear, Whitmer, and Maryland Governor Wes Moore a 4 percent chance.
Betting markets are not necessarily predictive, but they reflect traders' beliefs about what will happen in 2028.
Munich Security Conference Gives Democrats Global Platform
Several Democrats viewed as potential presidential candidates, such as Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez and Whitmer, are set to attend the Munich Security Conference. This gives them a chance to define their vision for U.S. foreign policy, a critical aspect of the presidency that is likely to become a sticking point in the primary.
Ocasio-Cortez spoke at a panel on Friday, delivering a populist message.
“In democracies, we have elected leaders, and in massive corporations that then begin to consume the public sector, gobble up this spending, they start to call the shots and we’re starting to see this with some of the billionaire class throwing their weight around in domestic politics and in global politics as well,” she said.
She continued, “It is of urgent priority that we get our economic houses in order and deliver material gains for the working class or else we will fall to a more isolated world, governed by authoritarians that also do not deliver to working people.”
Newsom, meanwhile, criticized Trump’s approach to climate change. during remarks at the conference.
“Donald Trump is temporary. He’ll be gone in three years. California is a stable and reliable partner in this space. It’s important for folks to understand the temporary nature of this administration in relationship to the issue of climate change and climate policy,” he said.
What People Are Saying
Robert Y. Shapiro told Newsweek some of the factors that will shape the primary: “The perceived state of the economy, and its not meeting voters' expectations, given Trump's promises. Also, the disruption caused by ICE officers' overly aggressive actions against immigrants—taking citizens into custody, killing people in incidents that have shown their lack of training, and otherwise acting illegally.
"Voters don't like disruption in general and especially when it has been caused by government-related actions. Also, the distraction provided by the Epstein scandal has added to bad news for Republicans in how the FBI and the Justice Department has mishandled the investigation and evidence.”
The Focaldata polling report reads: “Despite her 2024 loss, Kamala Harris leads the early race with 39% from a 10-candidate prompt in the Democratic primary, before beating Gavin Newsom 56-44% in a head-to-head. Pete Buttigieg finishes third, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez places fourth.”
Governor Gavin Newsom discussed his 2028 plans with The Wall Street Journal last year: "I'm not thinking about running, but it's a path that I could see unfold.”
What Happens Next
Generally speaking, most candidates do not begin announcing campaigns until after the midterms. That means primary campaigns may kick off in 2027, but candidates are likely already weighing whether to run.
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