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By Suzanne Blake
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The election of Cardinal Robert Prevost of Chicago as pope has caused some small bettors to bring in massive payouts.
"Given the unexpected choice, we have had some insanely large payouts from small trades," financial exchange market Kalshi's Jack Such told Newsweek.
Why It Matters
Prevost, now Pope Leo XIV, was not among the top contenders to replace the late Pope Francis, making his selection a relative surprise. According to Kalshi, this choice has caused many who gambled on the upcoming pope's selection to earn tens of thousands of dollars.
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What To Know
Leo, 69, has spent much of his career in Peru and is fluent in Spanish and Italian.
The new pope was chosen as the Catholic Church faces a growing ideological divide. While former Pope Francis made strides to be more inclusive, other, more traditional Catholic leaders seek to return to strict doctrine enforcement.
Leo represents the "dignified middle of the road," Reverand Michele Falcone, a priest in the Order of St. Augustine, told The New York Times on May 2.
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However, the American-born pope was an unexpected choice, according to Kalshi, causing many gamblers to earn significant payouts.
One bet slip from Kalshi showed Leo's chance at becoming pope at just 1 percent. The payout for the $274 bet was a whopping $27,496.
Another $120 bet led to a $12,000 payout for Leo's selection. Those who placed higher bets saw payouts of as much as $30,000 to $52,000.
Kalshi originally ranked many other cardinals as having a much higher chance of being selected for the Catholic Church's highest leadership position. These included Pietro Parolin, who had a 30 percent chance, Luis Antonio Tagle, who had a 22 percent chance, and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, who had an 11 percent chance.
What People Are Saying
Pope Leo XIV said upon his selection: "We have to seek together to be a missionary church, a church that builds bridges and dialogue, always ready to accept, like this great piazza, with its arms, we have to show our charity, presence and dialogue with love."
Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek: "To say Robert Prevost was a long shot for the title of pope from a betting perspective would be putting it mildly. Odds for Prevost to gain the title hovered around the one percent margin on many major betting books, as many thought there was no chance of an American to be selected."
"The sudden decision of Pope [Leo XIV] came as a shock to not just many followers of the faith, but gamblers, as well. With Cardinal Pietro Parolin heavily favored by the vast majority of those putting money on the conclave, the decision cost many money, and for a very select few, turned out to be equivalent to hitting the lottery."
What Happens Next
Catholics will now look to Leo for guidance during a turbulent time for the Church.
"The bishop is not supposed to be a little prince sitting in his kingdom," but is "called authentically to be humble, to be close to the people he serves, to walk with them, to suffer with them," Leo said in an interview with the Vatican's official news site last year.
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