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By Micah McCartney
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South Korea’s stubbornly low birth rate could force dozens of universities to shutter in the coming years, experts say, as the country faces record-low enrollment at elementary schools.
Why It Matters
South Korea has one of the world’s lowest birth rates, despite the government pouring more than $200 billion into pro-natal measures since 2006.
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Rising living costs, persistent gender discrimination in the workplace, and shifting attitudes toward marriage and child-rearing are frequently cited as reasons young adults delay—or forgo—starting families. At the same time, South Korea continues to age rapidly, with those 65 and older accounting for more than 21 percent of the population last year.
These trends threaten to drag on Asia’s fourth-largest economy as pension systems come under strain and a shrinking workforce must support a growing pool of retirees.
Newsweek reached out to South Korea’s Ministry of Education by email with a request for comment.
What To Know
Just 298,178 first graders are expected to enroll in South Korea’s schools when classes resume in March, according to Education Ministry data cited by The Korea Times.
That represents a 44 percent decline from 2022 and would mark the first time the figure has dipped below 300,000 since records began—well below the roughly half a million per year needed to keep the country’s two- and four-year higher education institutions viable down the line, the report said.
The outlook is grim for both the next generation of university students and the institutions themselves. A recent survey of four-year universities conducted by the Korea Council for University Education found that more than 60 percent of respondents expect upward of 30 universities could close within the next decade.
Institutions outside the greater Seoul area, home to roughly half South Korea’s 52 million people, will be disproportionately hard hit, experts warn.
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What People Are Saying
Lee Sang-lim, a demography expert at the Population Policy Research Center at Seoul National University, told The Korea Times: "Universities and colleges in the greater capital area alone have an intake capacity of about 180,000 students, while roughly 250,000 children are being born currently. If 70 percent of them go to college and they all flock to the capital region, that’s it. Regional universities will simply vanish."
Jung Jisun, associate professor at the University of Hong Kong, wrote in a 2024 article for peer-reviewed journal Higher Education: "As enrolment has declined, the Korean government has implemented multiple policies, including restructuring higher education, implementing closures and mergers, supporting universities experiencing the enrolment crisis, and encouraging colleges to improve their competitiveness…Despite these diverse policies at the governmental and institutional levels, the fundamental problem caused by population shrinkage will be persistent."
What Happens Next
Universities face growing uncertainty over how they will keep bringing in enough revenue as enrollment continues to fall. Following revisions to the Higher Education Act last year, the ceiling on tuition is just 1.2 times the three-year average inflation rate, down from 1.5.
South Korea’s total fertility rate edged up last year to about 0.80 births per woman, from 0.72 in 2023, the government said. Officials have largely attributed the rise to more women in their 30s becoming first‑time mothers.
A fertility rate of 2.1 is generally considered the level needed for a population to replace itself naturally.
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