Putin's Military Adopting Wagner Group Tactics After Failed Offensives: ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank on Monday wrote of a Russian military manual reportedly confiscated by a Ukrainian reserve officer that describes tactics recently implemented by the mercenary Wagner Group.

The details about the manual were presented in the latest ISW assessment of the war in Ukraine. The report said the manual detailed what was called an "assault detachment" of a "battalion-sized element that has been optimized for frontal assaults on fortified areas." The think tank added that Russian President Vladimir Putin's military might turn to those tactics "to compensate for current combat power limitations in response to continued offensive failures."

The existence and contents of the manual could not be independently verified by Newsweek, but the Ukrainian military officer who said he captured the manual posted photos on Twitter on Sunday of the document describing the "assault detachment."

"The tactics of the assault detachment additionally suggest that the Russian military may be attempting to institutionalize practices used to marginal tactical effect by the Wagner Group in Bakhmut," ISW wrote.

In his Twitter thread about the alleged manual, the Ukrainian reserve officer also said Putin's forces were seemingly influenced by Wagner Group operations around Bakhmut when conceiving the strategy outlined in the document.

Putin's war in Ukraine reached its one-year mark on February 24, and reports of military setbacks have hounded Russia since the early days of the conflict. The Kremlin often downplays such reports while Putin and other top Russian officials have increasingly characterized the war as a defensive maneuver against Western aggression.

In recent weeks, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has clashed with Russian officials following statements he made about his soldiers being solely responsible for seizing the town of Soledar in Ukraine's Donetsk region after Putin's forces had failed to make gains.

After the Kremlin took credit for victory in Soledar, Prigozhin lashed out at Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian general staff, in an audio clip posted to Telegram in mid-February.

More recently, the Wagner Group has been involved in heavy fighting around the Donetsk city of Bakhmut. The ISW previously wrote of Wagner's use of assault detachment-style tactics, which the think tank said has allowed the mercenaries to rely less on "massed fires as Russian artillery and equipment stocks have dwindled."

So far, Wagner's "highly attritional offensive" in Bakhmut has not proved successful, which could mean "the institutionalization of elements of Wagner's tactics will likely further normalize attritional frontal assaults," the ISW wrote.

However, "[s]uch tactics are likely to waste Russian combat power and not effectively counter conventional Ukrainian battalions and brigades."

The institute further speculated on how Wagner's assault detachment tactics might look if adopted by Putin's military.

"Assault detachments may be able to make tactical gains at cost due to their simplicity but will likely culminate rapidly due to their small size and attritional tactics. Russian forces are unlikely to make operationally significant breakthroughs rapidly with this formation," the ISW said.

I am doubtful that the Russian military would rewrite a manual quickly enough to draw lessons from Wagner tactics and incorporate them into formal Russian military doctrine. The truth is that Wagner's tactics in Ukraine are basically the same as Stalin's in World War II: overwhelm the enemy with mass attacks which incur mass casualties on the part of the attackers. Stalin was willing for his forces to incur huge casualties, and so is Putin.

George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government professor Mark N. Katz told Newsweek that he's not so sure that Putin's forces are directly borrowing strategies from the Wagner Group.

"I am doubtful that the Russian military would rewrite a manual quickly enough to draw lessons from Wagner tactics and incorporate them into formal Russian military doctrine," Katz said. "The truth is that Wagner's tactics in Ukraine are basically the same as [former Soviet Union premier Joseph] Stalin's in World War II: Overwhelm the enemy with mass attacks which incur mass casualties on the part of the attackers."

Katz added, "Stalin was willing for his forces to incur huge casualties, and so is Putin."

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment.