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Alaska’s U.S. Senate count is far from finished and a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot could decide its outcome.
As of Sunday, November 8, the state's count had not changed since November 4. Of the 215,906 ballots counted, Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan by 637 first-choice votes. Neither candidate has achieved 50 percent. If either one fails to hit this milestone by November 18, voters' ranked choices will begin being counted.
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a Petersburg man who shares the senator’s name, drew 3,600 votes, more than five times Peltola's lead. State ballot data showed more of his voters ranked Peltola next than the senator.
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The count comes amid legal fights over Alaska’s election. A federal judge on November 1 dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to block a Peltola win over confusion about the two Sullivans. State officials had argued in court that they “carefully designed the ballot to minimize voter confusion.” Governor Mike Dunleavy has ordered an investigation into claims that Peltola’s allies recruited Sullivan Jr., which both deny. Ranked choice itself is also on the ballot, with a measure to repeal it still being counted.
The state has about 51,000 early and absentee ballots in hand that it has not yet counted, and more mail ballots can still arrive. If no one tops 50% once every ballot is in, the state counts second choices on November 18. Below is Newsweek's breakdown of what each candidate needs from the ballots still out.
Newsweek reached out to the Peltola and Sullivan campaigns for comment by email on Wednesday. In our request, both campaigns were asked how they would respond if the winning margin is smaller than Sullivan Jr.’s vote total.
The Ballots Still Out
The received figures come from the state's ballot report as of November 4. To estimate what is left, Newsweek subtracted the early and absentee ballots that already appear in the state's scanned-ballot data from the number the state reports receiving. Rejected absentee ballots are left out because they will not be counted. The total will grow as more mail arrives.
Another 10,528 absentee ballots have been sent out but not returned. Domestic mail ballots can arrive through November 13, while overseas ballots through November 18.
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The Math
The state has counted 215,906 ballots. For 204,530 of them, the ones read by scanning machines, it has also published how each voter ranked the candidates. The other roughly 11,400, mostly hand-counted in rural precincts, are in the vote totals, but their rankings are not public yet. Newsweek used the scanned ballots' rankings to estimate how second choices would move, then applied those rates to the state's full totals.
Ranked choice works in rounds. The last-place candidate is dropped, and each of their ballots moves to that voter's next choice still in the race. The state will not run this count until November 18. Here is Newsweek's estimate:
- Write-ins drop out first**.** About 700 ballots, split nearly evenly, so they barely matter.
- Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. is out next, with 3,600 votes. About 1,040 go to Peltola, 590 to Senator Sullivan and 650 to Gerald Heikes, a Republican from Palmer who finished third with 4,846 first-choice votes. About 1,320 ranked no one else. Peltola now leads by about 1,090.
- Heikes is out after him, with about 5,500 votes: His own 4,846 plus the 650 he just picked up. About 2,380 go to Senator Sullivan and 960 to Peltola. About 2,160 ranked neither.
- Estimated final round: Senator Sullivan about 105,290, Peltola about 104,960. Sullivan ahead by about 333.
Net effect: Second choices give Senator Sullivan about 970 more votes than Peltola, turning her 637-vote lead into an estimated 333-vote deficit. That is Newsweek's estimate, not an official result.
More results are expected in the coming days. Here is the share of the roughly 51,000 uncounted ballots each candidate would need, based on the state's count and Newsweek's second-choice estimate:
Winning outright means topping 50% of first choices, so no ranked-choice count is needed. After ranked choice, the share counts only votes for Peltola or Senator Sullivan. If 10,000 more mail ballots arrive by the deadlines, the outright bars fall to 57.0% for Peltola and 58.0% for Sullivan, and the ranked-choice bars barely move.
Put simply: If the uncounted ballots split evenly, Senator Sullivan stays narrowly ahead in Newsweek's estimate. Peltola needs to win them by about 0.7 points or more.
For scale, state ballot data showed the early and absentee ballots counted so far gave Peltola about 56.5% of first choices and 58% after ranked choice. Late-arriving mail can lean differently, so that is a reference point, not a forecast.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Steven Frank and Oliver Pritchard.
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