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By Jordan King
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A new election poll by a right-leaning company shows that Iowa seems to be shifting away from Donald Trump, although not enough for him to lose him the state, as predicted by a shock Selzer & Co poll.
The survey by On Point, SoCal Strategies and Red Eagle Politics, which describes its perspective as "right-leaning," has given Trump a 7 percent lead over Harris among registered voters, this is less than the 8.2 percent lead he had over Joe Biden in 2020, and the 9.4 percent lead he had over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The Selzer & Co poll, conducted for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, found that 47 percent of Iowa voters supported Harris and 44 percent supported Trump, predicting a Democratic victory in the deep-red state.
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In 2020, Trump won Iowa with 53.1 percent of the vote, over Biden's 44.9 percent, according to The New York Times (NYT)'s archived election results map. In 2016, Trump won Iowa with 51.1 percent of the vote over Clinton's 41.7 percent.
The Red Eagle Politics poll questioned 501 registered voters and 435 likely voters between November 2 and 3. It has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
When reached for comment, Red Eagle Politics told Newsweek on Monday via X, formerly Twitter, direct message: "The poll has a margin of error of several points, and Iowa is a very hard state to poll in general. It's very possible Trump is being underestimated in this poll, and I think he wins the state by more than he did in 2020. But either way, I expect it to be more accurate than Selzer's."
Newsweek has also contacted Trump's team via email for comment.
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Insider Advantage's Matt Towery, a former Republican state legislator in Georgia, told Fox News' Sean Hannity that, while Insider Advantage has not finished its Iowa poll yet, "it looks like Trump's gonna be between six and seven (percent in the lead)." Towery described this as "about what (Trump) got in Iowa last time" and it is only 1 to 2 percent off the 8.2 percent of 2020.
Towery said: "Ann Selzer's a very fine pollster, considered the gold standard, so maybe she's onto something we don't know—I don't live there. But the way we've polled it, and we've been very successful in the past, I just don't see that happening."
After the Selzer & Co poll was released on Saturday, it caused shock waves as Selzer has a reputation for accuracy, with correct predictions in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections. Trusted polling analyst Nate Silver called the results "shocking" and said it "took guts" to release it.
"(Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co.) has a long history of bucking the conventional wisdom and being right," Silver wrote, on his blog Silver Bulletin. "In a world where most pollsters have a lot of egg on their faces, she has near-oracular status."
Others have denied its validity, including Red Eagle Politics, which wrote on X, "Mathematically, this result should be at least a Trump+7, the same as their 2016 and 2020 polls. Same crossover. Ann Selzer is throwing away her reputation for a suppression poll. I'll delete my channel if this result is even within seven points of reality."
It later posted: "I will donate my entire bank account if Selzer is off by less than nine points. It's not worth tweeting about anymore, we have an election to win on Tuesday!"
Trump has also rejected the poll, saying on Truth Social over the weekend that it was run by "a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time." In 2020, Selzer predicted Trump would win Iowa with 48 percent to Biden's 41 percent.
He posted: "No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it's not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT. I LOVE THE FARMERS, AND THEY LOVE ME. THE JUST OUT EMERSON POLL HAS ME UP 10 POINTS IN IOWA. THANK YOU!"
The Trump campaign released a memo which said: "On Saturday, top Democrats appear to have received early access to an absurd outlier poll of Iowa conducted by The Des Moines Register.
"Not to be outdone, The New York Times arrived right on cue with another set of polling data being used to drive a voter suppression narrative against President Trump's supporters.
"Some in the media are choosing to amplify a mad dash to dampen and diminish voter enthusiasm. It has not worked. Our voters are like President Trump: they fight."
Selzer responded to Trump's post in an email to Newsweek, saying: "These are the kinds of comments seen for virtually any poll, including mine. The Des Moines Register includes a methodology statement with each story they publish.
"It's the same methodology used to show Trump winning Iowa in the final polls in 2016 and 2020. It would not be in my best interest, or that of my clients—The Des Moines Register and Mediacom—to conjure fake numbers."
Update 11/04/24, 4:39 p.m. ET: This article was updated to include comment from Red Eagle Politics.
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