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By Andrew Stanton
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As this year's midterms approach, Republicans are finding themselves behind in the polls in several key races they haven’t lost in decades.
Democrats believe President Donald Trump’s unpopularity could help carry them to victory in November, including in more conservative states. Historically, the party in the White House suffers losses during the midterms, viewed as a referendum on the sitting president. Trump’s approval rating has continued to fall; in the latest Ipsos/Reuters poll, for instance, just 35 percent of respondents said they approve of him. It surveyed 4,505 adults from July 29-August 3.
Polling in five key races Republicans have been winning for decades shows Democrats with an advantage. While polls could still shift before Election Day, the early data is a warning sign for the GOP about their chances even in more traditionally conservative corners of the country.
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Republicans are trailing Democratic candidates in the recent polls in the Senate races for Texas and North Carolina, as well as the governor races in Georgia, Iowa and Ohio. Republicans have not lost some of these races in nearly 40 years. However, the latest polls of the Michigan Senate race, where Democrats have been on a decades-long winning streak, showed Republicans with an advantage.
It’s “a little surprising” that Democrats are leading in these races, but a victory is “not out of the question” in November, Jared McDonald, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, told Newsweek on Friday.
“Midterm elections tend to be bad for the party in power, and candidate quality matters. Rob Sand is the only Democrat that won statewide in Iowa in 2022, so he has strong name recognition. Roy Cooper is a popular two-term governor in North Carolina. Conversely, Ken Paxton in Texas has a laundry list of fraud, bribery, and infidelity scandals,” he said.
The attorney general was subsequently acquitted by the Texas Senate in September 2023.
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Still, McDonald noted that a fairly normal polling error in any of these states could “yield emphatic wins for either party in these states.”
“The polls right now best reflect that these races are anyone's to win. I try not to pay too much attention to short-term polling swings, which are often driven by outlier polls and the media attention they gain,” he said.
Democratic victories in these states would mean they have not only motivated their base but “won over independents and peeled off some moderate Republicans as well,” McDonald said, adding that "there aren't that many Republicans who will actually cast a vote for a Democrat, but if 10 percent of Republicans cross the aisle to support a Democrat, that can be decisive."
Turnout is going to be key in these races, Michael Bailey, a professor of government at Georgetown University, told Newsweek.
“A presidential election has around 60% turnout while a midterm has about 40% turnout. That's a huge difference- and it means the midterm electorate tends to be more educated and older. The higher educated voters tend strongly toward the Democrats. But in the stretch states for Democrats (TX, IA) etc, they will have do some conversion as well to finish the job,” he said.
Natalie Baldassarre, Republican National Committee (RNC) national press secretary, told Newsweek, “Democrats have no leader, strategy, or message other than being anti-Trump socialists. With the strength of our candidates coupled with lower drug prices, a secure border, more jobs, and less taxes, we’re confident that Republicans will be victorious across the board this November.”
Newsweek also reached out to the Democratic National Committee for comment via email.
Georgia Governor Race
Republicans have not lost a Georgia governor race since 1998, but the state has shifted leftward over the past decade. It voted for former President Joe Biden in 2020, has elected two Democratic senators and only backed Trump by about 2 points in 2024.
Despite its shift in federal elections, Republicans have still done well in governor races, winning in 2018 and 2022. But Georgia’s new purple-state status has given Democrats hope that they could flip the governorship this year.
The race is a matchup between former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and businessman Rick Jackson. Most recent polling gives Bottoms a lead over Jackson but still suggests a close race.
An AARP poll showed Bottoms with a 2-point lead over Jackson, 48 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 1,060 likely voters from July 13-16 and was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points
A Fox News poll, conducted among 1,002 registered voters from June 23-27, showed Bottoms up 5 points, 52 percent to 47 percent. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Research. A State Navigate poll, conducted from July 10-13 among 448 likely voters, showed Bottoms up 7 points, 51 percent to 44 percent. The polls had margins of error of plus or minus 3 and 4.6 points, respectively.
Only one recent poll showed Jackson with a lead. In a Wick survey, he led by less than a single point, 43.2 percent to 42.7 percent. It surveyed 1,175 likely voters from June 27-30 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Roy Barnes was the last Democrat to win a governor race in Georgia in 1998, but he went on to lose reelection in 2002 to Republican Sonny Perdue. Republicans have carried the governor races in every election since, including in 2022, when GOP Governor Brian Kemp defeated Democrat Stacey Abrams by nearly 8 points.
Bottoms is also favored in prediction markets, having a 58 percent chance on Kalshi and a 60 percent chance on Polymarket as of Friday.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Iowa Governor Race
Democrat Rob Sand has built up a polling lead in the Iowa governor race against Republican businessman Zach Lahn.
Once a swing state, Iowa has become increasingly conservative over the past few decades. Former President Barack Obama won the state twice before it backed Trump in each of his three runs in 2016, 2020 and 2024, including by 13 points in 2024.
Republicans haven’t lost in a governor race in Iowa since 2006, when Democrat Chet Culver won. Four years later in 2010, Republican Terry Branstad flipped the governorship for Republicans, and Republicans have not lost since.
Sand has led three consecutive independent polls of the race. An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 712 likely voters from August 2-4, showed Sand up 5 points, 48 percent to 43 percent, with 7 percent undecided. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
A poll from The New York Times and Siena University showed Sand up by a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent. It surveyed 600 likely voters from June 15-27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percent. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll, conducted among 1,003 registered voters from June 23-27, gave Sand a 9-point lead, 53 percent to 44 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Iowa’s shifts are emblematic of those across the Midwest, where Democrats lost ground among white working-class voters who flocked to Trump and Republicans over the past decade. Winning back those voters will be key to flipping the state in the midterms.
Sand currently serves as the state auditor, making him the only Democrat elected to a statewide office in the Hawkeye State.
Sand had a 64 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and a 68 percent chance on Polymarket as of Friday.
North Carolina Senate Race
Republicans have not lost a North Carolina Senate race in nearly two decades, with Senator Kay Hagan being the last Democrat to win in 2008, when Obama also won the state.
But Democrats are increasingly hopeful that could change this year, as several polls show Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper with a lead over Michael Whatley, the former chair of the RNC.
A poll from Fox News showed Cooper up 9 points, 53 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 1,005 registered voters from July 23-27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. An earlier poll from the Times and Siena University, conducted among 601 likely voters from June 15-27, showed Cooper up 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 points.
Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring at the end of the current term, so Democrats believe the candidacy of a popular former governor and its open seat status makes North Carolina a prime opportunity to flip a Senate seat this year.
North Carolina has been elusive for Democrats in federal elections. Although they have done well in governor races, North Carolina has backed Republicans by narrow margins in Senate and presidential races. Hagan lost to Tillis in 2014.
Over the past decade, Democrats have gained ground in the suburbs around Charlotte and Raleigh but have struggled in more rural parts of the state, which were once more competitive when Obama won the state in 2008.
Cooper’s chances of victory stood at 92 percent on Kalshi and 91 percent on Polymarket as of Friday.
Ohio Governor Race
Like Iowa, Ohio has shifted rightward over recent election cycles. It was once a swing state, but now regularly elects Republicans. However, Democrats hope to regain some ground in the Buckeye State in a more favorable year.
In the governor race, Amy Acton, who led the Ohio Department of Health during the COVID-19 pandemic, is running against Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who rose to national prominence during his 2024 presidential run. Polls point to a close race.
Republicans have not lost an Ohio governor race since 2006, when Ted Strickland flipped the governorship but went on to lose in 2010 to John Kasich. Kasich won reelection in 2014, and Republican Governor Mike DeWine won in 2018 and 2022.
Polls show a close race, but the latest independent polls show Acton with a lead.
An AARP poll, which surveyed 800 likely voters from June 14-16, showed Acton up 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. A Fox News poll, which surveyed 1,015 registered voters from May 28-June 1, showed her up a single point, 50 percent to 49 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
The latest poll from the Times and Siena University showed a tied race, with each candidate receiving 47 percent support. It polled 601 likely voters from June 15-28, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. An earlier poll from YouGov and Bowling Green State University gave Ramaswamy a single-point lead, 48 percent to 47 percent. It surveyed 1,000 registered voters from April 7-14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Prediction markets, however, slightly favored Ramaswamy, who had a 51 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and a 56 percent chance on Polymarket on Friday.
Texas Senate Race
Democrats have long hoped to flip the Lone Star State, hoping that left-trending areas around cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston would make the state purple. While Texas did shift left in the 2010s, Republicans had a better year in 2024, as a rightward trend among Latino voters bolstered their candidates. Trump won by 14 points.
But the Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico is viewed as competitive, with Talarico carving out a new polling advantage.
The latest poll from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed Talarico leading Paxton by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent. It surveyed 1,200 likely voters from July 27-30 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a TexasPulse poll, which surveyed 619 likely voters from July 27-30, showed Talarico up 4 points, 47 percent to 43 percent. TexasPulse is conducted by ReconMR, Siena Research Institute (SRI), and the Texas A&M University Bush School of Government & Public Service. The sample that answered core questions had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
A Fox News poll, which surveyed 1,006 registered voters from July 23-27 gave Talarico a 3-point lead, 51 percent to 48 percent. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3 points.
The last Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas was Lloyd Bentsen, who won in 1988. In 1993, Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison won a special election to fill Bentsen’s seat after he was appointed to become treasury secretary. Since then, Republicans have held both of Texas’ Senate seats.
On Friday, Paxton’s chances in Texas stood at 51 percent on Kalshi and 52 percent on Polymarket despite the flurry of polls giving Talarico a lead.
Democrats Trail in Key Senate Race
While Republicans have been trailing in those five races, the inverse is true for Democrats in Michigan. Republicans have not won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994, but the GOP views the race as competitive this year, even if the national environment favors Democrats.
This week, Democrats elected progressive Abdul El-Sayed, a public health official, as their nominee against former Representative Mike Rogers, a Republican. Democratic Senator Gary Peters is retiring at the end of the current term.
The latest polling of the race gives Rogers an advantage.
An EPIC_MRA poll, sponsored by MIRS News Service, showed Rogers up 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 600 likely voters from July 24-31. The poll's margin of error was 4 percentage points. Meanwhile, a Glengariff Group poll showed Rogers up 10 points, 49 percent to 39 percent. It surveyed 600 likely voters from July 22-24, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
However, a Mitchell Research & Communications poll pointed to a closer race, with each candidate receiving 45 percent support. It polled 672 likely voters from July 28-29, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.77 percentage points.
What Happens Next
The outcome of these races is likely to depend on “bread and butter issues,” according to McDonald.
“If the economy is sluggish, if hiring is slow, if the war in Iran drags on, if gas prices remain high, it's going to be very hard for Republican leaders to sell a stay-the-course vision,” he said.
Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report classifies the North Carolina Senate race as Lean Democratic and the Texas Senate race as Lean Republican. It views the Georgia, Iowa and Ohio governor races s pure toss-ups ahead of the midterms.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Jason Lemon and Anthony Murray.
Correction 8/8/26, 8:09 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to say that Branstad flipped Iowa's governorship in 2010.
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