Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar speaks during a press conference in Washington, D.C. on September 19, 2024.

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Andrew Stanton

By Andrew Stanton

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Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar holds a lead over her Republican rivals in the Minnesota gubernatorial race as the state remains the epicenter for President Donald Trump’s ramped-up immigration operations, a new poll showed.

Brad Kohler, an MMA fighter seeking the Republican nomination, told Newsweek he does not "have much faith in those polls."

"I believe pulls this early are meant to sway voters. And regardless of what's going on with the violence, I think Minnesota needs better leadership. I don't think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party have that right now," he said.

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GOP candidate Kendall Qualls told Newsweek the poll is "further proof that our campaign to save Minnesota is resonating with voters across the state."

Meanwhile, GOP candidate Jeff Johnson told Newsweek the poll shows Klobuchar as "vulnerable" because she is "polling in the 49-50% range."

Newsweek reached out to each candidate included in the poll for comment.

Why It Matters

Klobuchar, who has represented Minnesota in the U.S. Senate for nearly two decades, announced she is running to succeed Governor Tim Walz, a Democrat who earlier in January opted against running for a third term in office amid criticism over his handling of a fraud scandal. Since then, the Trump administration has ramped up immigration operations in Minnesota, sparking significant backlash.

Democrats are hopeful Klobuchar, who has easily won reelection in the past, will make the race safer for the party in November and that the GOP will not be able to tie her to the fraud scandal. Republicans, however, are hoping to make the race competitive regardless of Klobuchar’s entry.

Minnesota last backed a Republican presidential candidate in 1972, but it has still been only light blue in recent elections. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the state by only 4 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. Former President Joe Biden carried it by about 7 points in 2020, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won it by less than 2 points in 2016.

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar speaks during a press conference in Washington on September 19, 2024.

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What To Know

A new poll from KSTP and SurveyUSA provided an early look at how Republican candidates would fare against Klobuchar in November.

Klobuchar begins the race with a double-digit advantage over each of the GOP candidates, the poll found. It surveyed 575 registered voters from January 27-30 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

The closest race was between Klobuchar and former state Senator Scott Jensen, who lost to Walz in the 2022 gubernatorial race. She held a 14-point lead over Jensen (49 percent to 35 percent). Here is a look at how other Republicans fare against Klobuchar.

Other polling on the race has not been made public.

The dynamics of the race have shifted over the past month, Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the Hubert H. Humphrey School and the Department of Political Science at the University of Minnesota, told Newsweek.

Immigration operations have “incinerated” fraud as the big issue on voters’ minds, he said. “I don’t know if that’s ever going to come back to them.”

Republican candidates lack Klobuchar’s statewide name identification and campaign organization, so they are at a disadvantage, Jacobs said. Prior to ramped-up ICE operations, Walz was damaged, and Republicans “had a shot,” even in a difficult midterm, he said.

“Now it’s a very different environment. One issue that did work for them, border and immigration—that’s obviously been destroyed,” he said. “I would say the race went from leaning Democrat to almost a lock for Dems. I wouldn’t say a lock, but almost a lock.”

One challenge for Klobuchar will be how to satisfy mobilized Democrats in the state, he said. She will have to avoid alienating those voters and more centrist voters, he said.

Republicans Seized On Fraud Scandal

The race was jolted in early January over a scandal on the Feeding Our Future nonprofit, which was implicated in a $250 million COVID-era scheme involving fraudulent claims for child nutrition programs. The Justice Department’s probe, which began under the Biden administration, has led to dozens of indictments, including members of Minnesota’s Somali community. Estimates of the cost to taxpayers have ranged from $250 million to $1 billion.

Republicans accused Walz of inadequately responding to the scandal. They argued that his administration did not do enough to prevent the alleged fraud from occurring, but Walz’s office previously told Newsweek that he has “worked for years to crack down on fraud and asked the state Legislature for more authority to take aggressive action.”

Amid the scandal, Walz announced that he would not seek a third term in office. Democrats view Klobuchar, who is well-known and popular in Minnesota, as a strong candidate who can hold the seat without being tied to the scandal.

ICE Operations Rattle Minnesota

The Trump administration focused on Minnesota in its immigration operations over the fraud revelations. It deployed 3,000 border patrol agents to the state as part of a broader immigration crackdown, particularly targeting communities with large immigrant populations.

However, federal immigration operations have created a political firestorm in the Minneapolis area after two U.S. citizens, Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti, were fatally shot by federal immigration agents last month.

The shootings prompted state and local leaders—including Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey—to call for the withdrawal of federal agents. They criticized the use of civil immigration warrants to justify what they described as unconstitutional raids. There have been large protests over the shootings and ICE tactics that allegedly include using a 5-year-old as bait.

What People Are Saying

Brad Kohler, an MMA fighter seeking the Republican nomination, told Newsweek: "I am an independent conservative. The only endorsement I'm looking for are from the people of Minnesota as I am friends with many candidates on both sides as well as elected officials. I am not a politician, I'm a businessman. I'm hoping that people read through all the hype and do their research on each individual and we all make a decision that will take Minnesota into a stronger, safer economy for the future of our children."

GOP candidate Kendall Qualls told Newsweek: "We are in a statistical tie for first place and one of the few candidates who keeps Amy Klobuchar below 50%. Our campaign is just getting started."

GOP candidate Jeff Johnson told Newsweek: "It's like flying on an airliner when the captain and first officer parachutes to the ground. The right engine is on fire and there is 15 minutes of fuel remaining. The lead flight attendant makes an announcement to see if someone can land the plane. And then Sen. Klobuchar shows up for the job. What can possibly go wrong? During the 2017 moratorium that I put forward on the St. Cloud City Council, Sen. Klobuchar was as quiet as a church mouse and didn't do a thing. Why would she change now if elected as governor?"

Amy Klobuchar announced her campaign on January 29, writing on X: “Minnesotans, we’ve been through a lot. And I believe this moment calls for grit, resilience, and faith in each other. I believe we must stand up for what’s right. And fix what’s wrong. Today, I’m announcing my candidacy for Governor.”

Minnesota House Speaker and GOP gubernatorial candidate Lisa Demuth responded to Klobuchar’s entry into the race: “Amy Klobuchar is a career politician who has been running for office for more than 30 years. Minnesota only need to look at her record to know that she simply cannot deliver the change our state needs, and would be nothing more than a third term of Tim Walz.”

Minnesota GOP Chair Alex Plecash, on X: “Senator Klobuchar was a cheerleader for Tim Walz, endorsing and defending him as Minnesota slid into a decade of decline. Under their leadership, more than half of Minnesota students cannot read or do math at grade level, massive fraud went unchecked, property taxes skyrocketed, and families were forced out of their homes. If she supported this record then, why should Minnesotans believe she would govern any differently now?”

What Happens Next

Forecasters give Klobuchar an advantage in the race. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Likely Democratic. Meanwhile, Kalshi’s betting odds give Democrats an 89 percent chance of victory. Minnesota’s primary is set for August 11, and the general election will be on November 3.

Update 2/3/26, 12:08 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Kendall Qualls and Jeff Johnson.

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