...
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Republicans hoping to flip a New Hampshire U.S. Senate seat in 2026 face an uphill climb, according to a new NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll showing Democratic Representative Chris Pappas ahead in hypothetical matchups, though significant numbers of undecided voters keep the race far from settled.
The survey of 603 registered voters, conducted just after Christmas and published Sunday, finds Pappas leading former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown 46 percent to 28 percent and former New Hampshire Senator John E. Sununu 42 percent to 36 percent, with roughly one-quarter of respondents undecided.
Newsweek emailed the three campaigns for comment early on Monday.
Read More on News
Why It Matters
The race is a critical battleground for both major parties, with control of the Senate potentially hanging in the balance. The announced retirement of Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen has transformed the race into an open contest, intensifying competition and drawing top-tier candidates. Polling data and expert ratings suggest Democrats hold a narrow edge, but a significant number of undecided voters and dominant economic concerns may shift the race's trajectory.
...
What To Know
The poll's margins highlight opportunity and risk for Republicans. While Pappas holds clear leads, his numbers remain well below the 50 percent mark, and roughly one in four voters are undecided—a reminder that New Hampshire’s electorate is famously fluid.
On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats hold an 11-point advantage (45 percent to 36 percent) and President Donald Trump registers a 32 percent approval rating in the Granite State—his lowest during either term. Statewide approval for Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte remains positive (38 percent to 33 percent), though her numbers have slipped since July. Party preference for control of New Hampshire's state government is tied.
As of early 2026, Shaheen’s exit has also spurred speculation of crowded primaries for both parties. The state also has a gubernatorial race, for which no prominent Democrats have announced bids.
Economic concerns dominate the landscape for New Hampshire voters. The poll reports that 30 percent rank the cost of groceries and other basics as their top issue, with housing costs at 25 percent. Property taxes come in third at 18 percent, with child care trailing at 2 percent, reflecting intense focus on affordability as a central campaign theme.
Race ratings from key nonpartisan analysts characterize New Hampshire’s Senate contest as marginally favoring Democrats: Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat "Lean Democratic," while Inside Elections puts it at "Tilt Democratic," which is marginally better for the GOP.
What People Are Saying
Praecones Analytica pollster Jonathan Klingler told NHJournal: "These are the worst numbers for Republicans in our past three surveys of the state. The trends over time show the goodwill President Trump and the GOP enjoyed earlier in the year has gone, which should be alarming to New Hampshire Republicans....On the positive side, the state party preference is tied, and Governor Ayotte is in the green, suggesting that Granite State Republicans have been able to distinguish themselves with voters from the national GOP. That may help them withstand a tough moment for the national party."
What Happens Next
The New Hampshire primaries are scheduled for September 8, 2026, with the general election on November 3.
Update 1/5/25, 11:02 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
The news cycle is loud. Algorithms push us to extremes. In the middle—where facts, ideas and progress live—there's a void. At Newsweek, we fill it with fearless, fair and fiercely independent journalism.
Common ground isn't just possible—it's essential. Our readers reflect America's diversity, united by a desire for thoughtful, unbiased news. Independent ratings confirm our approach: NewsGuard gives us 100/100 for reliability, and AllSides places us firmly in the political center.
In a polarized era, the center is dismissed as bland. Ours is different: The Courageous Center—it's not "both sides," it's sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you.
When you become a Newsweek Member, you support a mission to keep the center strong and vibrant. Members enjoy:
Help keep the center courageous. Join today.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines