Republicans Enjoy Huge Lead Over Democrats in Midterms: Poll

Republicans have opened up a substantial lead over Democrats ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, according to a new poll conducted in February among likely general election voters.

A poll from the Convention of States Action (COSA) in partnership with the Trafalgar Group showed Republicans enjoyed 54.4 percent support in the upcoming midterms, compared to just 41.9 percent for Democrats.

That represents a GOP lead of 12.5 percent over Democrats as the party is hoping to retake the House of Representatives and the Senate, allowing Republicans to stymie President Joe Biden's agenda.

The poll was conducted from February 2 to 6, among 1,073 likely general election voters. It had a margin of error of 2.99 percent.

The Trafalgar Group enjoys an A- rating from poll tracker FiveThirtyEight.

Just 3.7 percent of the respondents said they were undecided on their candidate preference in the 2022 elections.

While Republicans are aiming to block President Biden's agenda, the COSA/Trafalgar Group poll shows that most likely general election voters believe the GOP will achieve this goal if they win control of Congress.

When respondents were asked how confident they were that Republicans "will follow through on their promises to try to block or undo Biden's policies and agenda," 46.1 percent said they were very confident the GOP would do so.

A further 35 percent were somewhat confident that Republicans would block Biden's agenda, while 10.7 percent weren't very confident and 8.2 percent weren't confident at all.

There was a notable divide between Democrats and Republicans on the question of the GOP blocking Biden's agenda, however. Democrats were more certain that Republicans would do so, with 55.5 very confident and 24.7 percent somewhat confident. A further 9.9 percent weren't very confident and another 9.9 percent weren't confident at all.

By contrast, just 39.1 percent of Republicans were very confident a GOP-controlled Congress would stymie Biden's agenda, while 43.6 percent were somewhat confident of it. A further 9.8 percent of Republicans said they weren't very confident, but just 7.5 percent said they weren't confident at all.

Republican victories could see Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) return as Senate Majority Leader and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy become Speaker of the House for the first time.

While the COSA/Trafalgar Group poll appears to be bad news for Democrats, FiveThirtyEight's estimate of the generic congressional ballot suggests the margins are much tighter. FiveThirtyEight analyzes a large number of polls and uses its own system of pollster ratings.

That tracker showed Republicans on 45.1 percent support in the midterm elections, compared to 42.6 percent for Democrats as of February 14. Both parties have seen their support rise in FiveThirtyEight's generic congressional ballot since late January, but the GOP continues to outpace President Biden's party.

If Republicans take one or both chambers of Congress in November, they will likely seek to prevent Biden from pressing forward with his agenda over the next two years, leading into the 2024 presidential election. The GOP may also initiate investigations into a number of matters.

Mitch McConnell Listens to Kevin McCarthy
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell listens as House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy speaks to the press, following their meeting with President Joe Biden and Democratic congressional leaders at the White House in Washington, DC, on May 12, 2021. A new poll shows Republicans with a significant lead over Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP/Getty Images