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Andrew Stanton

By Andrew Stanton

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Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted eight races toward Democrats, including four previously thought to be safe GOP seats, on Wednesday—the latest warning sign for Republicans ahead of the November midterms.

The changes come as Democrats are hoping to expand the battleground to compete in more conservative areas in this year’s elections. President Donald Trump’s approval rating has slipped to record lows in the latest polls amid growing frustration over the economy and cost of living. Democrats believe that could give them opportunities to flip more seats in Congress this year, even in states and districts that backed Trump by large margins in 2024.

Democrats have also expanded their polling lead in the past few weeks. Democrats held an 8.6-point lead in RealClearPolitics’ aggregate of generic ballot polls. That’s the largest lead they’ve had so far this cycle and represents nearly a two-point leftward shift from one month earlier, when their lead stood at 6.8 points.

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That average is also identical to Democrats’ popular vote victory in 2018, when they rode a “blue wave” to flip more than 40 seats in the House of Representatives.

Which Seats Changed in Sabato’s Crystal Ball New Ratings?

The following seats shifted in the latest ratings from Sabato’s Crystal Ball:

These sorts of seats could present Democrats with chances to cut into the GOP majority to establish a greater majority in a “blue wave” national environment. Many of these districts voted for Trump by double digits or have a history of voting.

If Democrats make these races competitive, it would be a sign of a stronger blue wave.

Currently, Republicans hold a slim majority with 218 seats compared to Democrats’ 214 seats and one independent, so Democrats only have to flip a handful of seats to win a majority. But winning tougher races would be beneficial, giving them more room for defections on key legislative priorities.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, wrote in the update that Republicans are facing an “enthusiasm problem” ahead of November, and that an effort to motivate the base by holding a convention in Texas “does not as of yet appear to be paying dividends.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson speaks during a press conference in Washington, D.C. on September 15, 2026.

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“Those waiting for a Republican recovery in the polls will have to keep waiting, and the wait may be for Godot,” he wrote. “The post-Labor Day period has seen the Democrats generally doing well in surveys. The most-watched one was the New York Times/Siena University House generic ballot poll released Tuesday morning: Democrats were up 8.5 points.”

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Communications Director Courtney Rice told Newsweek that Americans are “sick of rising prices and broken promises, and they’re ready to elect Democrats to the House Majority in November.”

“While House Republicans are stuck trying to defend rising gas prices and the war in Iran, Democrats are on offense and poised to win in districts that voted for Trump by double digits,” Rice said.

Newsweek also reached out to the National Republican Congressional Committee for comment via email.

Democrats Gain in Safe Republican Seats

Four of the shifts came in seats previously not viewed as competitive. Republicans are still favored in these races, but they are now viewed as being more engaged by the elections forecaster.

“Things may end up bad enough for Republicans that we might see upsets in some places we don’t expect,” Kondik wrote.

Here is a look at where things stand in each of these races.

Arkansas’ 2nd District

Republican Representative French Hill is facing a challenge from Democrat Chris Jones, an engineer and former gubernatorial candidate, in a Republican-leaning district. The district is based around Little Rock, a Democratic city, but also includes more conservative, rural areas across the central region of Arkansas.

It backed Trump by nearly 16 points in 2024.

GOP Representative French Hill of Arkansas attends a committee hearing on March 19, 2024, in Washington, D.C.

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Jones has received the endorsement of former Vice President Kamala Harris, but it’s not clear that national Democrats are prepared to invest in this seat. However, Republicans have begun putting money into this seat.

“Hill recently benefited from about $400,000 in outside spending from a new Republican Super PAC, a development reported by Politico that raised our eyebrows a bit in a Trump +15ish district,” Kondik wrote.

Nevada’s 2nd District

This Nevada district has started to garner some attention, despite the fact that it backed Trump by 14 points in 2024.

The vast district includes large swaths of rural areas in the northern part of the state, but many voters live in the Reno and Carson City areas. Historically, it has a Republican lean and has been represented by Republican Representative Mark Amodei since 2011.

Amodei, who has overperformed other Republicans in the district, is retiring at the end of the term. His retirement leaves the seat open and has driven up Democrats’ hopes that they could pull off a surprise victory.

A recent poll showed a closer race than expected, but still found a large number of voters are undecided. The GBAO poll, sponsored by a Democratic group, Nevada Alliance, found Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson, the former leader of the Nevada Assembly, with a single-point lead over former Air Force Lieutenant Colonel David Flippo, 38 to 37 percent. Independent American Party candidate Lynn Chapman also received 14 percent in the poll.

Teresa Benitez-Thompson speaks during a campaign event in Incline Village, Nevada on June 11, 2026.

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It surveyed 500 likely voters from August 31 to September 3 and was first reported by The Nevada Independent.

New York’s 21st District

Republican Representative Elise Stefanik has won by large margins in this district, based around North Country. Once a more competitive area, the region has swung rightward over the past decade, backing Trump by more than 20 points in the last election.

But Stefanik’s retirement has brought new attention to the seat. Businessman Anthony Constantino, a Republican, and Democrat Blake Gendebien, a dairy farmer, are running to succeed her in the House.

A new poll of the district gave Constantino a modest lead. The survey from Public Policy Polling and The Bench, a Democratic aligned group, showed him up 5 points, 48 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 557 registered voters from September 9 to 10, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

A J.L. Partners poll, first reported by The New York Post, showed Constantino up 13 points, 53 percent to 40 percent. It surveyed 500 voters from August 15 to 17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Blake Gendebien testifies before a Senate committee on May 2, 2023, in Washington, D.C.

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Constantino wrote in a statement to Newsweek, “Independent polling shows me leading by 13 points, but the bigger problem for the Democrat Party is they are running a slate of America hating candidates, including Blake Gendebien, who snidely insults American Workers, Corrections Officers, and even local American children while bragging about his preference for illegals. I am self-funding to expose all these scoundrels.”

Blake Gendebien has received support from the Blue Dog PAC, a coalition supporting moderate Democrats.

He told Newsweek in February 2025, when he was running for a special election that was canceled after Trump pulled Stefanik’s nomination to become United Nations ambassador, that Trump’s tariffs could make the district, which has close ties to Canada, more competitive.

"We buy 80 percent of our potash fertilizer from Canada. This will impact the North Country and the entire United States. Corn, soybeans, and also forage, alfalfa, we require it. We need that fertilizer," he said at the time. "If there's a 25 percent tariff on that, all of our food is going to get more expensive. There's no way around it."

Ohio’s 10th District

This district is, in theory, more competitive than the other districts. It voted for Trump by fewer than 8 points in 2024, and it’s based around Dayton, which has many Democratic voters.

“But he has been an excellent performer even in tough years, so he’s not as vulnerable as the partisan topline might suggest,” Kondik wrote.

Republican Representative Michael Turner is a strong incumbent who has won by large margins in the past despite the district being only light red. He is facing a challenge from Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker, a veteran. Turner has drawn credible challenges in the past but has been able to withstand stronger Democratic environments.

Representative Mike Turner, an Ohio Republican, speaks in Washington, D.C. on September 29, 2021.

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Other Rating Changes

The other changes are in races that were already thought to be competitive.

Democrats’ Chances of Taking Back House: Polls

Democrats have led generic ballot polls throughout 2026, but some surveys showed a tighter margin that would suggest a blue ripple, rather than a wave. But that’s changing, with recent surveys giving Democrats an expanded lead, some showing a double-digit advantage.

The latest poll from YouGov and The Economist gave Democrats a 12-point lead among 1,051 likely voters, 51 percent to 39 percent. Six percent were still undecided, and 3 percent said they would vote for another party. The poll highlights the GOP’s motivation problem. Among all registered voters, Democrats only led by 5 points, 44 percent to 39 percent. It was conducted from September 11 to 14, 2026.

Democrats had a 7-point lead in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, 44 percent to 37 percent. It surveyed 896 registered voters from September 11 to 14, 2026.

Meanwhile, The New York Times and Siena University released a poll giving Democrats a 9-point lead, 51 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 1,503 likely voters from September 8 to 13, 2026.

What Does Democrats’ Generic Ballot Lead Mean for the Midterms?

It’s difficult to project exactly how a generic ballot lead would translate to the number of seat pickups for Democrats, especially as mid-decade redistricting has cast a level of uncertainty over the elections. But if that polling advantage holds up on Election Day, it could point to a more comfortable majority for Democrats.

Here is a look at how recent elections have gone.

What Happens Next

Polls will continue to be closely watched ahead of November 3. Issues like the economy, cost of living, the Iran war, and AI could shape the contours of the midterms as candidates make their pitches to voters over the coming months.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas

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