Republicans Have Better Odds Than Democrats to Win Control of House and Senate

Bookmakers currently have Republicans defeating Democrats to win control of Congress next year.

The Republican Party is the favorite to take majority control of the Senate following the 2022 midterms, with their odds of winning the chamber at 5/6 (54 percent), according to betting aggregator US-Bookies.

The GOP's odds of capturing the House stand at 2/5, or 71.4 percent.

The Democratic Party's odds of holding control of the Senate are 21/10, or roughly 32 percent. The party's odds for keeping their majority in the House are slightly higher at 2/1, or 33 percent, according to the site.

"While the odds favor Republicans winning control of Congress come midterms, their odds [to] take the House are stronger than the Senate," a US-Bookies spokesperson said in a news release. "But with the Republican majority looming, the Biden administration will likely face some challenges in the second half of the term, which could affect the 2024 outlook."

Democrats currently control the two chambers but by narrow margins. In the House, liberals outnumber conservatives 220 to 212. In the Senate, Democrats and the independents who caucus with them make up 50 percent of the chamber—with Vice President Kamala Harris there to cast any tie-breaking votes.

Historical precedent is on the Republican Party's side, as midterm elections tend to be a referendum on the party in charge.

Plus, for Democrats the 2022 map has dwindled following the redistricting process. Axios reported last month that Democrats have cut their list of Republican House seats to target from 39 to 21.

But polling has shown the competition to be close. FiveThirtyEight's generic congressional ballot shows Democrats and Republicans less than 3 percentage points apart when voters are asked which party they will support in next year's elections.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said last month Democrats have "no intention" of losing control of the chamber.

Republicans Have Better Odds Winning Congress: Bookmakers
Bookmakers currently have Republicans defeating Democrats to win control of Congress next year. Above, a senator leaves the U.S. Capitol following a vote on Tuesday. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

US-Bookies also provided updated 2024 odds on Wednesday. According to the site, Harris' odds in the next presidential election have improved from 5/1 (roughly 16 percent) to 7/2 (22 percent) over the past month.

Her odds are better than President Joe Biden or Donald Trump, whose odds remain at 4/1 and 13/2, respectively.

"Though Harris has the best odds to win the next presidential election, Biden is still the favorite to be the Democratic nominee," said a US-Bookies spokesperson. "This suggests that the odds show more confidence in Harris beating the Republican candidate than they do in Biden."

Political betting is illegal in the United States but is popular in Europe and other areas abroad.