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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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A quartet of Fox News surveys across key Senate battlegrounds is offering Republicans an early warning sign ahead of the 2026 midterms, with Democrats leading in several high-profile races and voters expressing growing concerns about candidates closely aligned with President Donald Trump.
Four Fox News polls released between June and July found Democratic Senate candidates ahead in Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio despite Republicans defending traditionally favorable territory.
Key Points
- Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by nine points in North Carolina, 53 percent to 44 percent.
- Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson by four points in Iowa, 50 percent to 46 percent.
- Democrat Jon Ossoff holds a 13-point advantage over Republican Mike Collins in Georgia, 56 percent to 43 percent.
- Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jon Husted by eight points in Ohio, 53 percent to 45 percent.
- Across all four polls, more voters say a Republican candidate's ties to Trump concern them than say Democratic candidates are "too liberal."
- Inflation remains the top issue for voters in every state surveyed, yet Republican candidates are not consistently benefiting from that economic anxiety.
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Senate races often serve as a barometer of the national political environment, and these early numbers suggest Democrats may be outperforming expectations heading into the midterms.
Republican candidates and Senate strategists face mounting pressure to improve support among independents and moderate voters as campaigns move into the fall stretch.
Newsweek contacted every campaign mentioned in this article for further comment via email on Thursday morning.
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Why It Matters
Republicans entered the 2026 cycle expecting a favorable map after Trump's 2024 victory and continued strength in many battleground states.
Yet the Fox News data suggests some voters who backed Trump are proving less enthusiastic about Republican Senate candidates tied to him.
North Carolina Shows Democrats' Strongest Recent Lead
The newest survey, conducted July 23-27 among 1,005 registered voters and carrying a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, found former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper leading former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley by 53 percent to 44 percent.
Jeff Allen, Cooper’s campaign manager, told Newsweek in an emailed statement that Cooper had spent his career "putting North Carolinians first," while accusing Whatley of delivering for "billionaires and special interests at the expense of the middle class."
Allen said the campaign expected the race to be "very close," adding that it was working to "earn every vote" and show voters that Cooper "will fight for them in the Senate."
The poll also revealed a broader challenge for Republicans. Nearly half voters, 48 percent, said they were concerned that Whatley was "too close" to Trump, while 42 percent said they worried Cooper was too close to the Democratic establishment.
Trump himself remains underwater in the state. Forty percent of voters viewed him favorably while 58 percent held an unfavorable opinion, a deterioration from Fox's North Carolina polling during the 2024 presidential campaign.
Cooper's support appears more enthusiastic as well.
Among his backers, 84 percent said their vote was primarily for him rather than against Whatley.
Among Whatley supporters, only 52 percent said their vote was mainly for their candidate, while 46 percent described it as a vote against Cooper.
That enthusiasm gap matters because voters motivated by support for a candidate tend to be more reliable participants than those motivated chiefly by opposition.
Iowa Delivers Another Warning for Republicans
Just weeks earlier, a Fox News poll conducted June 23-27 among 1,003 Iowa registered voters found Democrat Josh Turek ahead of Republican Representative Ashley Hinson by four points, 50 percent to 46 percent. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus three percentage points.
Iowa has become one of the GOP's most reliable states in federal elections. Trump carried the state comfortably in 2024, making a Democratic lead there particularly noteworthy.
Fifty percent of Iowans said they were concerned Hinson was too close to Trump, compared with 37 percent who expressed concern that Turek's positions were too liberal.
Candidate favorability numbers also favored Democrats. Turek posted a 51 percent favorable rating against 33 percent unfavorable, while Hinson stood at 42 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable.
Trump's image was also negative in Iowa, with 42 percent holding a favorable view and 55 percent viewing him unfavorably.
Inflation dominated the issue landscape, cited by 39 percent of voters as the most important factor in their Senate vote. Healthcare, immigration and political divisions followed well behind.
Georgia Suggests Democratic Coalition Is Holding
Georgia's Senate race may offer Republicans one of the most concerning sets of demographic data.
A Fox News poll of 1,002 registered voters conducted June 23-27 found Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff leading Republican Congressman Mike Collins by 13 points, 56 percent to 43 percent. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus three percentage points.
Ossoff's support extends well beyond the Democratic base. The survey found he led among independents by a substantial margin and attracted support from nearly one-quarter of non-MAGA Republicans.
By contrast, Collins was underperforming among several groups Republicans typically need to win statewide.
Nearly six in 10 voters held a favorable view of Ossoff, compared with 44 percent for Collins. Trump registered a 42 percent favorability rating.
Perhaps most significantly, 53 percent of Georgians said they were concerned Collins was too close to Trump, while 47 percent said Ossoff was too liberal.
That six-point gap mirrors a recurring theme across the Fox surveys: worries about Trump alignment are proving at least as salient as traditional Republican attacks on Democratic ideology.
Ohio Shows Similar Cross-Party Dynamics
Ohio remains a Republican-leaning state. Trump carried it by more than 11 points in 2024.
Yet a Fox News survey conducted May 28 through June 1 among 1,015 registered voters found Democrat Sherrod Brown leading Republican Senator Jon Husted by eight points, 53 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus three percentage points.
"Ohioans across the state are fed up with skyrocketing costs and with Jon Husted voting to make things worse," Brown's campaign manager, Patrick Eisenhauer, told Newsweek in an emailed statement.
"Families are being crushed by rising costs, and now they’re seeing gas prices and inflation spike even further out of control. As we visit towns across Ohio, it's clear that Ohioans are ready to hold Jon Husted accountable for his role in the affordability crisis."
Brown benefits from unusually strong party loyalty. Ninety-eight percent of Democrats backed him, while he also attracted support from 31 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.
Among independent voters, Brown held an 18-point advantage.
Views of Trump appear central to the contest. Forty-six percent of voters said they were concerned Husted was too close to the president, compared with 39 percent who worried Brown was too liberal.
Brown's numbers also reflected stronger enthusiasm.
Sixty-eight percent of his supporters said they were voting primarily for him, while only 58 percent of Husted supporters said the same.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys alongside Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, said after the Ohio results that Democrats had reason for optimism because they were unified while independents favored Brown.
What Happens Next
It remains early in the campaign cycle, and Fox's surveys capture a snapshot rather than a forecast.
Candidate recruitment, spending, national events and voter turnout can all reshape Senate races over the coming months. Republicans will likely point to the fact that inflation remains voters' top concern and argue that economic conditions could shift the political landscape closer to Election Day.
Update 7/31/26, 03:13 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Sherrod Brown's campaign manager, Patrick Eisenhauer.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Ben Kelly, Robert Greenall and Tony Phillips
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