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Former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell outraised Senator Rick Scott in the latest fundraising quarter of the Florida senate race, as polls show the Democrat chipping into Scott's lead in a state that has become reliably red.
The Republican has raised more cash throughout the entire campaign—not unusual for an incumbent—and even if he didn't, has the benefit of a personal war chest in the nine figures.
That's partially why Scott is still viewed as the favorite to win re-election in November, but his lead is small enough that Democrats still believe Florida's Senate race is one of their few opportunities to flip a Republican-held seat in November.
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Florida used to be one of the nation's most important swing states, voting for the winning candidate in every presidential race from 1996 to 2016.
In 2020, however, it backed former President Donald Trump even as the nation overall voted for President Joe Biden, reflecting the reality that Florida has become more heavily Republican, due in part to shifts away from Democrats among Hispanic voters in Miami and the migration of older, more conservative voters to the state.
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The situation for Democrats in the Sunshine State has only become more dire since.
Republicans have made substantial gains in the state's voter registration and won big victories in 2022. But Democrats are hoping Mucarsel-Powell, a former congresswoman who represented a district in the southern part of the state, can turn their luck around this November.
Scott was initially viewed as the favorite, as Democrats have largely invested their efforts and money on other competitive races, particularly those with Democratic incumbents. But recent polls suggest the race may be closer than initially expected.
Scott, who is the wealthiest member of the Senate with an estimated fortune of more than $100 million, has the ability to self-fundraise, giving him a built-in financial advantage over Mucarsel-Powell.
But the Democratic challenger has outraised Scott every quarter since entering the race, according to her campaign. Strong fundraising is crucial in a large state like Florida, home to more than 22 million people and 10 media markets.
During the second quarter of 2024, Mucarsel-Powell outraised Scott, winning more than $4.8 million in campaign contributions, compared to Scott's $3.1 million, according to their campaigns.
In total, Scott has raised more than $29 million, while Mucarsel-Powell has raised more than $14 million, according to OpenSecrets. However, Mucarsel-Powell has more money in the bank for the final stretch of the campaign, according to data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Mucarsel-Powell had $4.4 million cash-on-hand at the end of July, compared to Scott's $3.9 million, according to the FEC data.
J. Edwin Benton, a professor of political science and public administration at the University of South Florida, told Newsweek that the race may be closer than people expect.
"It could be a very competitive race," he said. "I think [Mucarsel-Powell] has a shot. If we were having this conversation eight or nine months ago, I'd say no way she has a chance."
Republicans have had a "hold" on Florida since 2018, but Democrats have better chances in 2024 than the past few years because the state party is in a stronger position amid new leadership, he said. State Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried has rebuilt the party, which was previously "in shambles."
The party, however, is being reenergized and remobilized, he said.
He said winning over independent voters is crucial in the Senate race. Mucarsel-Powell can earn their support by focusing on national and key issues at the state level, like the state's insurance crisis. Republican legislators in the state have faced criticism as voters feel they have not adequately addressed it, he noted.
Scott still has some advantages, though, including the ability to pour millions of dollars of his own money into the race and his status as an incumbent making it more difficult for him to lose, Benton said.
Will Hampson, a spokesperson for the Scott campaign, said in a statement to Newsweek, "In 2018, Chuck Schumer and his dark-money organizations spent north of $60 million to beat Rick Scott and he won anyway."
"Every election, Florida Democrats say Rick Scott is in trouble and every election they lose. While Debbie hides in Miami, Senator Scott is focused on getting around the state and talking to Floridians about the issues that matter to them," he continued.
Marc Chaaban, deputy communications director for Mucarsel-Powell's campaign, told Newsweek, "While Rick Scott's been busy trafficking in conspiracy theories and voting against access to IVF, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has been working to reach every voter where they are.
"After 14 years of Rick Scott's extremism and failures, it's no surprise Floridians are rallying around Debbie's campaign to restore reproductive freedom, protect seniors' benefits, and make life more affordable for every family. The incredible energy behind Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is only growing, and in November, Floridians will come together to retire Rick Scott," he said.
The Associated Press reported this week that national Democrats are planning to invest an unspecified amount of money in the remaining weeks of the race as polls tighten there.
What Polls Say About Florida's Senate Race
Recent polls show Scott with a narrow, but consistent, lead.
An Emerson College/The Hill poll, conducted among 815 likely voters from September 3 to September 5, found Scott with only a single point lead over Mucarsel-Powel (46 percent to 45 percent).
Mucarsel-Powell's campaign wrote in a statement that she raised more than $1 million in the 48 hours after that poll was released.
Other recent surveys have been stronger for Scott.
A Morning Consult poll, conducted among 3,182 likely voters from August 30 to September 8, found Scott leading by five points (47 percent to 42 percent). Meanwhile, a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll, conducted among 1,465 likely voters from September 6 to September 9, found Scott leading by three points (44 percent to 41 percent).
In 2018, Mucarsel-Powell was brieflyelected to represent Florida's 26th District, comprising Miami-Dade, the Everglades and the Florida Keys, as part of the Democrats' "blue wave" that carried suburban areas across the country.
However, she lost in 2020 to Carlos Giménez, then the mayor of Miami-Dade County. Her defeat underscored Florida Democrats' struggles in recent years, which continued in 2022 when Senator Marco Rubio and Governor Ron DeSantis sailed to victory in their re-elections by more than 15 points despite substantial Democratic investments in those races.
Mucarsel-Powell discussed the race in an interview with Newsweek earlier in September, in which she highlighter her differences with Scott on the issue of immigration.
"We all agree, Democrats and Republicans, I would assume we all agree that we need to have border security, that we need to invest in our border, that we need to protect our national security. Rick Scott voted against a bill, not once, but twice, that would provide significant funding to protect our border. So again, they use this point, this theme, to divide us, to create fear among our communities," she said.
Scott, a healthcare entrepreneur turned venture who went on to serve as Florida's governor, was elected to the Senate in 2018, narrowly defeating Democrat Bill Nelson.
Why Florida's Senate Race Could Be Important
Florida's Senate race may be one of the three races that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate come January.
Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority, but the West Virginia seat being vacated by Senator Joe Manchin is expected to easily flip to the GOP column. Democrats must hold every other seat they currently hold, or flip another to hold onto their majority.
Recent polls point to Democrats having a slim advantage in most of those races. But a spade of recent good surveys for Republicans in Montana, where Senator Jon Tester is facing a challenge from Republican Tim Sheehy, may prompt Democrats to look to states like Florida or Texas — where Senator Ted Cruz faces a challenge from Representative Colin Allred — to reach a 50-50 split. In that scenario, the vice president would cast the tie-breaking vote in a deadlocked Senate.
Update 9/20/24, 2 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from J. Edwin Benton.
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