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By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
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Satellite imagery and analysis have shown the construction of new military bases in Belarus, including one which could host a nuclear-capable ballistic missile, it has been reported.
Belarus is Russia's closest ally, bordering NATO members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, and has been used as a staging post for Vladimir Putin's aggression in Ukraine.
Investigative journalists have said images show new and modernized former military bases and training grounds in Belarus, some of which will be used during upcoming Zapad-2025 (West-2025) joint exercises with Russia.
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Analysis of the Planet Labs images by U.S.-funded Radio Liberty and Estonian and Belarusian journalists concluded one site south of Minsk could host Russia's Oreshnik ballistic missile system touted as unstoppable by Putin.
The International Strategic Action Network for Security (iSans), which has monitored the site near the Belarusian capital, told Newsweek there was not enough data to conclude a nuclear weapons base was being built there "but it cannot be completely ruled out."
Newsweek has contacted the Belarusian defense ministry for comment.
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Why It Matters
Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko is Putin's closest ally who has allowed the country to be used as a staging ground for Moscow's aggression in Ukraine. Belarus now hosts nuclear-capable missiles, which are controlled by Moscow.
Reports that military bases in Belarus could host nuclear-capable missile systems even closer to Europe than Russia will raise security concerns for the region.
What To Know
Journalists from Radio Liberty and Estonian outlets Delfi Estonia and Eesti Ekspress looked at satellite imagery from Planet Labs to create an outline of Belarusian military facilities that are under construction.
This included new and modernized former military bases and training grounds, some of which will be used during the annual joint exercises with Russia which start on Friday.
The construction appears to being undertaken in secret with no reference to it in public documents, media or from officials, Radio Liberty said.
The analysis said that construction on the first base near the village of Pavlovka, about 40 miles south of Minsk, started in June 2024, could host Oreshnik ballistic missile systems.
Moscow said it tested the intermediate-range ballistic missile in an attack on Ukraine last November and would be deployed in Belarus along with their introduction into the Russian Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN).
Images from August analyzed by Radio Liberty show ammunition depots at the site which covered more than two square kilometers. They were surrounded by protective walls sheds or hangars and foundations for other buildings.
An iSans representative told Newsweek it had been monitoring this location and the changes that were visible on satellite imagery.
Belarusian state propaganda has also drawn attention to this site, reporting active demining work on the 240-hectare area in 2024. But iSans said the data is currently insufficient to draw a definite conclusion about the construction of a base for nuclear weapons or the Russian Oreshnik system, "but it cannot be completely ruled out."
Konrad Muzyka, from the security analysis firm Rochan Consulting told Radio Liberty the site's layout suggested a strategic purpose while Marko Eklund, a Russian military analyst, told Eesti Ekspress the site resembles a strategic missile base.
A second new facility also appeared on the outskirts of the city of Gomel, less than 25 miles from Ukraine. Construction began there in late 2023 and journalists believe it is a future military base.
What People Are Saying
ISans told Newsweek: "The data is currently insufficient to draw a definite conclusion about the construction of a base for nuclear weapons or the Russian Oreshnik system, but it cannot be completely ruled out."
Konrad Muzika, director Rochan Consulting to Radio Liberty: "These bases are linked to some sort of strategic level equipment that can be deployed to Belarus. Whether that's Oreshnik or something else, we will see."
Marko Eklund, Russian military analyst told Eesti Ekspress: "Strategic missile bases are the same. I can't say what else it could be."
What Happens Next
Eyes will now turn to the Zapad-2025 (West-2025) joint exercises between Belarus and Russia which are scheduled to take place between 12 and 16 September and whether Oreshnik systems will arrive in Belarus this year
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