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By John Feng and Maya Mehrara
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The pace of Russian advances in Ukraine has fallen to a six-month low, dropping to levels not seen since before Kyiv's incursion into Russia's Kursk region according to a post by news outlet Agentstvo on Telegram.
Newsweek reached out to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The slowing pace of advance suggests that Moscow may be finding it difficult to continue to sustain the war in Ukraine because of manpower and equipment shortages, as well as increasing economic problems. Sanctions imposed by Western powers targeting Russia's energy sector may be cutting off funding for the war and therefore affecting Russian forces in Ukraine.
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What To Know
Russian territorial gains slowed in December and January, even with the help of North Korean soldiers deployed to Kursk, according to Agentstvo. The outlet's analysis is based on data from the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState.
Since July 2024, Russia has advanced a total of 2,823.3 square kilometers (1,090 square miles), with most success in November, at 792.2 square kilometers.
In January, Russian troops in Kursk showed the slowest rate of advance since August, as Moscow managed to fully regain control of just 33.3 square kilometers (12.9 miles) of the region, compared to its previous rate of 90 to 216 square kilometers per month for the preceding four months.
Military analyst Yan Matveyev said that the Russian army is in a phase of heavy fighting in several directions at once and the pace of its offensive varies from one to two kilometers per week.
Another military analyst, Kirill Mikhailov, told the outlet that he believes Russia's pace of advance has been adversely affected by the situation in Pokrovsk, where large numbers of troops are required and the front is fairly narrow.
He also theorized that manpower shortages and heavy losses of armored vehicles could have contributed to the slowdown.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has theorized that Russia's rate of advance would increase with a "break out of Toretsk into the more open fields west of the settlement" and the fall of the city that has been under attack since June 2024. The Washington D.C.-based think tank said Moscow's troops would then head for Konstantinovka in eastern Ukraine.
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What People Are Saying
Speaking to Agentstvo, Matveyev said: "Usually, the capture of territories occurs in two main stages. First, a long, difficult advance little by little, and then a collapse and rapid capture of one of the salients. In January, we saw a similar situation only in Velikaya Novosyolka. The battles for the village lasted three months, but its main territory was captured in a couple of weeks."
In a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote: "It's been nearly six months of active operations in the Kursk region to defend Ukrainian territory. We are maintaining a buffer zone on the Russian territory to protect our cities of Sumy and Kharkiv from Russian offensives. I am grateful to all our warriors who defend Ukraine's positions and destroy the occupiers. I also want to thank all Ukrainian developers and manufacturers of long-range drones and missiles. Everyone can see their effectiveness—how our weapons are bringing the war back to Russia and reducing its capacity for waging war."
"Unrest in Russia, reduced Russian capacity to sell and refine oil, and lower global oil prices—this is what is needed for peace."
What Happens Next
Russian forces will likely continue to try to capture Toretsk, as well as the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and the entirety of Donetsk Oblast.
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