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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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A significant shift in the nation’s weather pattern could soon put nearly half the country at risk for severe thunderstorms, according to new guidance from the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Storm Prediction Center, which warned the atmosphere is primed for more active springlike conditions in the days ahead.
Rain, thunderstorms, and severe weather will be possible from the Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys next week as a more active setup develops as early March approaches. The incoming severe weather is an abrupt transition from winter conditions that have plagued the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast over the past few weeks, with warmer air surging northward and stronger upper-levels winds setting the stage for widespread thunderstorm development.
"A pattern shift will support increasing severe weather chances starting the middle of next week & beyond," NWS Storm Prediction Center posted on X on Friday. "Mid-level troughing in the west, w/ 60+°F dewpoints in the east should result in an extended period of active severe weather from the S Plains to SE & perhaps OH Valley."
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AccuWeather meteorologists are also warning of the incoming shift, with a recent forecast from the agency describing it as a "clash between winter and spring."
"The setup will be favorable for rounds of severe weather from Texas and Louisiana northeastward into the middle Mississippi and Ohio valleys. The scope and intensity of the severe weather will depend on the strength and timing of each storm system. Each system could behave differently," AccuWeather senior long-range meteorologist Joe Lundberg told Newsweek. "Following some short-term rain to end the week in parts of the Southeast, there may be few opportunities for rain through much of the first half of March. Drought conditions may worsen, and the risk of wildfires may increase in the long range as a result in the Southeast."
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This change in the pattern comes after another round of snow and ice sweeps across the Midwest and into the Northeast to start the week.
The states facing the highest risk of severe thunderstorms include Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, and Illinois.
Earlier this week, AccuWeather meteorologists warned people to begin preparations for spring severe weather after publishing a tornado season outlook.
As of Friday afternoon, there are no severe thunderstorm watches or warnings across the impacted area given the pattern shift is still days away, but emergency managers stress that preparation begins well before storms develop. People should monitor daily forecasts and NWS outlooks, keep multiple ways to receive warnings—including NOAA Weather Radio and mobile alerts—and identify a safe interior room on the lowest floor of their home.
It’s also important to secure outdoor items that can become projectiles, review family communication plans, charge electronic devices, and ensure emergency kits include flashlights, batteries, medications, and essentials for at least 24 to 48 hours. Taking these steps ahead of time reduces the scramble when watches or warnings are issued and helps families respond quickly when severe weather threatens.
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