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By Suzanne Blake and Gabe Whisnant
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Millions of Americans who rely on Social Security will have to wait longer to find out how much their benefits will rise next year as the ongoing government shutdown delays key inflation data.
The Social Security Administration uses September’s Consumer Price Index to calculate the annual cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics has halted data collection during the shutdown.
Why It Matters
The announcement, typically made in mid-October, determines benefit increases for more than 72 million retirees, disabled Americans and survivors. Even if Congress reaches a deal soon to reopen the government, officials say processing delays will likely push back the release of the inflation report and the long-awaited COLA update.
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What To Know
Millions of retirees and other Social Security recipients will have to wait longer to find out how much their 2026 checks will increase as a result of the government shutdown.
While the SSA announces the COLA every October after the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' September CPI report, the shutdown will mean the economic data won't be released on Friday as scheduled unless Republicans and Democrats end their political standoff.
However, even if the government shutdown ends, the COLA announcement could still experience a delay as workers are required to process the economic data.
"While the delay of a COLA announcement for Social Security recipients may not feel like a big deal, it can be for seniors who budget well in advance with limited income. The Social Security Administration announces in October of each year the cost adjustments recipients can expect to receive for the coming year," Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek.
"This is pivotal for many, especially in times like these when inflationary pressures play such a key role in affordability for millions of Americans. Any delay to the announcement could produce headaches for beneficiaries wanting to outline what their cost of living would be in 2026 compared to what income they can expect from the program."
In 2025, more than 70 million Social Security and SSI recipients saw a 2.5 percent COLA to their benefits.
How Long Will the Government Shutdown Last?
So far, it is unclear how much longer the government shutdown will last between congressional Republicans and Democrats.
President Donald Trump said Monday that his administration is in talks with Democrats over the main issue in the standoff, health care subsidies.
The standoff marks the first government shutdown in nearly seven years.
"We want great health care for people," Trump told reporters on Monday. "We don't want to give the money away to other people that come pouring into our country...We have a negotiation going on right now with the Democrats that could lead to very good things. I'm talking about good things with regard to health care."
Are Social Security Payments Impacted by the Government Shutdown?
The SSA said last week that benefit and Supplemental Security Income payments will continue during the government shutdown.
"We want you to know that during the federal government shutdown, payments to all people who currently receive Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) will continue with no change in payment dates. You will still receive your payments on time," the SSA said in a press release.
However, the SSA noted they “cannot provide proof of benefits letters, or update or correct earnings records,” adding that “these in-person services will resume when the federal government is operating normally.” Offices will also not be able to replace a Medicare card.
What People Are Saying
Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek: "The government is no longer producing economic data, so the COLA is going to have to wait until the government reopens. Once the shutdown is over, we should see numbers come across the tape, or we may have to wait an additional month to get new data points. Either way, the numbers will eventually be delivered."
Drew Powers, the founder of Illinois-based Powers Financial Group, told Newsweek: "At this time, we can expect a delayed announcement in the COLA figure; however, Social Security beneficiaries should receive the increase as scheduled. This will make it a little harder to plan ahead for 2026, but should not affect the actual payment."
Michael Ryan, a finance expert and the founder of MichaelRyanMoney.com, told Newsweek: "The real risk isn't the announcement, it's the processing. If a shutdown drags past January, you might see delays in new benefit applications or appeals. But your monthly check? That's protected mandatory spending. It's like worrying the sun won't rise because Congress can't pass a budget."
What Happens Next
Thompson said the bond market could experience increased volatility due to the delay in releasing the data.
"The latest ADP report already signaled continued stress in the labor market, so policymakers will need updated data before determining their next move on interest rates," Thompson said.
Update 10/7/25, 3:49 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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