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By Andrew Stanton
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Democratic socialist Francesca Hong’s chances of winning the Democratic primary in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race received a boost on Tuesday, despite many in her party being anxious about her candidacy in such a competitive state.
Wisconsin’s contest could become the most significant test for the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which has surged in recent primaries. However, their victories have largely been contained to safely Democratic areas like New York City, Philadelphia and Denver.
A Hong victory in the Democratic primary would test DSA’s electability in a key battleground state. Wisconsin has backed both Democratic and Republican candidates in recent election cycles, backing President Donald Trump by less than a percentage point in 2024—the narrowest margin of any state.
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The prospect of a Democratic socialist securing the nomination in such a divided state has sparked anxiety from the party’s establishment.
Although Democrats anticipate a favorable national environment due to President Donald Trump’s faltering national approval rating, some have expressed concerns that a progressive like Hong on the ballot could cost Democrats in the general election over a more centrist candidate.
The Wisconsin primary is set to be held on August 11, 2026.
Francesca Hong Leads New Wisconsin Poll
The new poll from State Navigate showed Hong leading the field with 44 percent, followed by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley at 15 percent; former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes received 14 percent support in the poll, while other candidates polled in the single digits.
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Undecided stood at 13 percent in the poll, conducted among 1,085 likely voters from July 23-26, 2026. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Anthony Chergosky, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, told Newsweek he was surprised by the magnitude of Hong’s lead in the poll.
“Hong’s rise reflects the anti-establishment sentiment we have seen in Democratic primaries around the country. She has also run a distinctive, grassroots-oriented, and very online-friendly campaign. Her democratic socialism separates her from the field,” he said.
Her success is also about Democrats’ inability to coordinate around an alternative, he said, noting the field is “fragmented” with several candidates dividing the anti-Hong vote.
Kathleen Dolan, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, told Newsweek that the poll may not be representative of the state because it was conducted via text message, which generally reaches more partisan voters, and that it was an “opt-in poll,” meaning respondents self-selected.
“The responses only reflect those people who responded, not Democratic voters in Wisconsin as a whole. This is revealed in the fact that Hong’s margin of support is 1) so high, and 2) so much higher than the other candidates,” she said.
A spokesperson for Crowley’s campaign responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.
Hong told Newsweek her campaign is “encouraged” by the poll but is not taking anything for granted.
“What we’ve believed from the beginning, and what the polling has increasingly shown, is that there is a real hunger in Wisconsin for a politics that puts working people first,” she said.
She said that while some people are asking whether Wisconsin is ready to elect a Democratic socialist, she believes voters are less concerned about labels than they are “ideas, values and solutions.”
”And at the same time, and perhaps because of the work we’ve put in, a majority of Democrats in Wisconsin now view democratic socialists favorably, and even moderate and conservative Democrats are more favorable than unfavorable. There’s only one majority in Wisconsin, and that’s the working class. People want to know who is going to make their lives more affordable, who is willing to stand up to powerful interests, and who will fight for a government that works for them,” she said.
“One clear trend from all of the polling, both public and internal, is there are a massive number of undecided voters who will ultimately decide the winner,” the spokesperson said. “As Governor Evers said when he endorsed David Crowley, we can't let the Republicans meddle in our primary to pick the person they want to run against, and David has the executive experience to win the primary, general election, and govern on day one.”
What Do Other Polls Show?
Other polling has also shown Hong with a lead, but that many voters across Wisconsin are undecided about who they will vote for during the primary.
The latest poll from Marquette Law School showed Hong’s support at 26 percent, Barnes at 15 percent and Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez, who has dropped out of the race, at 11 percent. Forty-five percent of respondents in that poll said they were undecided.
It surveyed 430 Democratic voters from July 8-16, 2026.
Dolan said the Marquette poll is “likely the reality of the reactions of Democrats statewide.”
“And I feel more confident saying that because the MU poll is a random selection poll that has been going for many years and has a high accuracy rate when you compare their poll results to election results,” she said.
A Public Policy Polling survey, sponsored by Crowley’s campaign, showed Hong’s support at 35 percent, Barnes at 15 percent and Crowley at 14 percent. It surveyed 708 likely voters from July 21-22, 2026.
In Wisconsin, a candidate needs only a plurality of support to win the primary; if other candidates split the vote, Hong could win with support below 50 percent.
Democrats’ Anxiety Grows Over Francesca Hong
Many Democrats have expressed concerns about Hong’s chances in the primary, raising questions about whether her affiliation with DSA and more progressive views could alienate moderate voters in the state.
“The Dem race for governor in WI feels like a slow-rolling car headed for a cliff. If Dems there don't figure it out, they'll endanger a potential House pickup opportunity and risk installing as governor an election-denying, Freedom Caucus member just in time for the '28 election,” Democratic strategist David Axelrod wrote in a July 23 post on X.
Activist Shannon Watts warned on X that the race “will have significant down ballot consequences.”
“All 99 seats in the assembly are up for election. To win control, Dems only need a net gain of 5 seats. Seventeen of 33 Senate seats are on the ballot. Dems only need a net gain of 2 seats for control. Instead, we may be looking at a Republican trifecta,” she wrote.
Joe Wineke, former chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, raised concerns about Hong's candidacy in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
“She is the ultimate far-left candidate. It might work in a primary, but it’s not going to work very well in a general,” he said.
Chergosky said that Wisconsin would become a “test” as to whether DSA candidates can win outside of “deep blue cities and congressional districts.”
“The Marquette poll from last week illustrates Hong’s potential vulnerabilities. Only 25 percent of Wisconsin registered voters expressed a favorable opinion of either the Democratic Socialists of America or the 'democratic socialist' label. Hong’s past statements about defunding or abolishing the police would also give Republicans an obvious line of attack among swing voters,” he said.
Hong has faced criticism for past remarks including support for defunding the police. She wrote in an August 24, 2020, post on X, “I support defunding the police as a first step towards abolishing the police.” In a May 28 video posted to Facebook, she said there is “no way” she would cut public safety and accused Republicans of not providing funds to local communities to combat crime.
The Marquette poll found that Hong would be in a tight race against Republican Tom Tiffany in the general election—each received 44 percent support in the poll. Barnes led Tiffany by 5 points, 47 percent to 42 percent, while Rodriguez led by 4 points, 47 percent to 43 percent.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as a toss-up.
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Wisconsin Governor Race Upended by Rodriguez Exit
Earlier in July, Rodriguez, viewed as a leading candidate for the more moderate or establishment-aligned wing of the party, ended her campaign amid financial concerns. Her campaign said she had fired her campaign manager after discovering her campaign had hundreds of thousands of dollars less on hand than expected.
“As we have continued to dig into our financial reports, it has become clear there are issues that would be an ongoing distraction,” Rodriguez said in a video on X on Friday.
Following her exit, Crowley, who earlier withdrew from the race, jumped back in as Democratic centrists scrambled to consolidate around a candidate. Governor Tony Evers, a Democrat who opted not to seek a third term, endorsed Crowley.
Prior to Trump’s win in 2024, Wisconsin was decided by razor-thin margins in other prior presidential cycles, backing former President Joe Biden by less than a point in 2020 and Trump by less than a point in 2016. Former President Barack Obama won the state by larger margins—14 percentage points in 2008 and 7 points in 2012.
The state's political geography has shifted significantly in recent years. Republicans have consolidated strength among rural, white working-class voters, many of whom previously supported Obama. Democrats counter this by maintaining high turnout in urban centers like Milwaukee and Madison, alongside growing margins in affluent suburban areas.
What Is Democratic Socialism?
Hong identifies as a democratic socialist and has earned the endorsement of the Democratic Socialists of America.
The DSA defines the ideology as a system "where ordinary people have a real voice in our workplaces, neighborhoods, and society," advocating for collective ownership of key economic drivers like energy and transportation. Members generally champion progressive policies such as single-payer healthcare and the Green New Deal.
Unlike authoritarian socialist models, democratic socialism emphasizes that economic reforms must be achieved through democratic institutions, competitive elections, civil liberties, and individual rights.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Sam Wilson.
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