kentucky tennessee march 28

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Tyler Everett

By Tyler Everett

Sports Betting Editor

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Another Sweet 16 matchup, another primetime showcase for the SEC.

When 3-seed Kentucky takes on 2-seed Tennessee tonight, it will be the third clash of the season between these teams. The Wildcats beat the Vols 78-73 in Knoxville on January 28. Big Blue also won the rematch in Lexington 75-64 on February 11.

But Tennessee (29-7, 12-6 SEC) is the clear favorite over Kentucky (24-11, 10-8 SEC) tonight at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

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After beating the Vols as 10.5-point road underdogs in January and upsetting them again as 3.5-point home 'dogs in February, can Kentucky stun Tennessee for a third time tonight?

Let's get into it.

How to Watch Kentucky vs. Tennessee

Kentucky-Tennessee Odds: Spread, ML, Total

Best Player Prop Bet for UK vs. Tenn

Igor Milicic Jr. 10+ points (+125 at bet365) -- 1 units

Tennessee's 6-foot-10 forward isn't the focal point of the Vols' offense. He is, however, a great bet at this price to score at least 10 points, as Kentucky showed earlier this year that it is content with big nights by Milicic as long as it can keep Chaz Lanier, Zakai Zeigler and Jordan Gainey in check.

That trio shot just 6-for-29 from outside vs. Kentucky in Knoxville, and they were 0-for-13 on 3-pointers in the Vols' road loss to the Wildcats in February.

Milicic averaged just under 10 points this year, but he scored 19 points on 6-for-10 FG shooting vs. the 'Cats in the first meeting and added 16 more in the rematch on 6-for-9 shooting from the floor.

Across the two matchups, Milicic -- a 32 percent 3-point shooter on the year -- drained 7 of his 12 3-point attempts vs. the Wildcats.

Given that his individual success did little to prevent Kentucky from winning those games, don't be surprised if he gets plenty of open looks once again in this contest.

Also keep in mind that Milicic is a career 35 percent 3-point shooter, so he's more than capable of taking advantage of clean looks.

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction, Best Bets

For most of the season, Kentucky has been better on the offensive end of the court than the defensive end. But it forced Tennessee into two of its worst shooting performances of the season.

In the first meeting, on January 28 in Knoxville, UK held Tennessee to below 35 percent shooting from the floor, including a horrendous 11-for-45 (24 percent) night from outside.

The Vols performed better in Round 2 in Lexington (43 percent FG shooting), but were even worse from outside, bricking 15 of their 18 3-point attempts.

Kentucky is coming off two solid defensive showings last weekend against 14-seed Troy and 6-seed Illinois. Tennessee, on the other hand, overwhelmed Wofford in the first round and stifled 7-seed UCLA in the second round.

Vols coach Rick Barnes should be able to make enough adjustments to create better looks than his team got in the first two games of the year against Kentucky. Still, Tennessee will also need to be much better on defense against the Wildcats, who shot exactly 50 percent from the floor and 50 percent from 3-point land in both previous meetings.

Too much needs to change from the 80 minutes of action we've already seen between these teams for me to go with the favorites here, so I'll take the Wildcats to cover. I also recommend a half-unit on Kentucky on the moneyline.

Yes, it's tough to beat the same team three times in one year (especially as the betting underdog all three times).

That being said, the shooting disparity between these teams over a substantial sample size is impossible to ignore, and we just saw Kentucky lock down Illinois, which was one of the best offensive teams in the country this year. (The llini finished with 75 points, but had less than 60 points through 34 minutes of that one).

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Best Bets

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