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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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In a series where player props have been hard to pin down, one player (besides MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) who appears to be a safe bet is Thunder center Chet Holmgren.
In addition to Holmgren, we also like Jalen Williams to have another big night offensively after scoring a total of 53 points in Games 3 and 4.
Chet Holmgren Double-Double (+125 at DK, FD, bet365) -- 1 unit
Holmgren endured a rough Game 1. He posted a playoff-low 6 points, while finishing with well below his playoff averages in minutes (Game 1: 23.5; playoff average: 29.8) and rebounds (Game 1: 6; playoff average: 8.7).
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Since then, though, Holmgren's minutes have steadily climbed (27:45 in Game 2, 34:42 in Game 3, 37:11 in Game 4).
He's also leading the Finals with 37 rebounds after grabbing 10 in Game 3 and 15 more in Game 4, including six huge ones (three offensive, three defensive) in the fourth quarter as the Thunder outscored the Pacers 31-17.
With Myles Turner (2 rebounds apiece in Games 3 and 4) and the Indiana front line struggling to keep Holmgren off the glass, he strikes us a safe bet to flirt with double-digit rebounds in Game 5 and beyond, especially if he continues to log well over 30 minutes per game.
A key question as it relates to Holmgren's player props is whether coach Mark Daigneault will play Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein or both. In Game 4, however, Holmgren rarely left the court (the only Thunder player who logged more minutes than Holmgren's 37 was SGA) despite Hartenstein playing 20-plus minutes.
That is one of the biggest reasons we're bullish on Holmgren going forward.
It also helps Holmgren's case that for all Turner does well, rebounding is not one of his strengths (he's averaging just 4.8 boards per game this postseason).
Amid his recent uptick in minutes, we expect Holmgren -- who just produced 6 points and 6 rebounds in just the fourth quarter of Game 4 -- to have little difficulty recording at least 10 points and 10 boards.
Jalen Williams o22.5 Points (-106 at FanDuel) -- 1 unit
Williams' counting numbers in Games 3 and 4 are where our case for him tonight starts. There's more to this recommendation than his 27 points in Game 4 and 26 in Game 3, though.
It's also worth noting that he had 18 field-goal attempts and 11 free-throw attempts apiece in OKC's last two games. And he scored 26 in Game 3 despite making just one 3-pointer, then managed to reach 27 points without a made triple in Game 4.
But the most encouraging stats for Williams have to be his usage numbers in both Games 3 and 4.
In nearly 36 minutes in Game 4, Williams' usage rate of 32.5 trailed only SGA's (32.8), and that's including a fourth quarter where Gilgeous-Alexander took 6 of OKC's 15 field-goal attempts.
Williams also played over 36 minutes in Game 3 and boasted a game-high usage rate of 31.8.
The Pacers deserve a ton of credit for how hard they've made Gilgeous-Alexander work. The job they did on SGA in Game 3 in particular (he finished with 24 points on 9-for-20 FG shooting and just 6 FTA) was one of the best defensive performances by any team this postseason.
But unfortunately for Indiana, the Thunder's second option, Williams, is a potent scoring threat that OKC is happy to lean on against the rare opponent that is capable of limiting Gilgeous-Alexander.
Williams is a good bet to clear this line even if he once again struggles to get clean looks from outside -- and if he does make a couple of shots from deep, a 25- or 30-point night could be well within reach.
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