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The Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs wraps up tonight in Pittsburgh, where the 4-seeded Steelers host the Texans.
Though oddsmakers expect a defensive showdown (this game's total of 38.5 points is by far the lowest of the six Wild Card matchups), there are plenty of solid options when it comes to Texans vs. Steelers player prop bets.
The best bet here, as we'll detail below, is Aaron Rodgers to complete at least 22 passes.
How To Watch Texans vs. Steelers
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m.
- TV: ESPN/ABC
Texans vs. Steelers Betting Odds (via FD)
- Spread: HOU -3 (-105); PIT +3 (-115)
- Moneyline: HOU -164; PIT +138
- Total: 38.5 (over -105; under -115)
Aaron Rodgers 22+ Completions (-107 at DraftKings) -- 1 unit
After Aaron Rodgers' volume of pass attempts dipped in November, when he attempted just 15 passes in a Week 11 win over the Bengals and 21 in a 26-7 loss to the Bills in Week 13, the 42-year-old has attempted at least 27 passes in five straight games, with 34 or more in four of them.
Below are Rodgers' passing numbers in Weeks 14-18:
- Week 14 vs. Baltimore (PIT 27, BAL 22): 23-of-34, 284 yards, 1 TD, 0 interceptions, 0 sacks
- Week 15 vs. Miami (PIT 28, MIA 15): 23-of-27, 224 yards, 2 TD, 0 interceptions, 3 sacks
- Week 16 vs. Detroit (PIT 29, DET 24): 27-of-41, 266 yards, 1 TD, 0 interceptions, 2 sacks
- Week 17 vs. Cleveland (PIT 6, CLE 13): 21-of-39, 168 yards, 0 TD, 0 interceptions, 2 sacks
- Week 18 vs. Baltimore (PIT 26, BAL 24): 31-of-47, 294 yards, 1 TD, 0 interceptions, 2 sacks
The Steelers' late-season emphasis on the quick game hasn't resulted in huge yardage numbers every week (see: Week 17 vs. Cleveland), but it has mostly been a boon for A) this offense and B) anyone targeting Rodgers' completion props.
With at least 23 completions in four of his last five games, the case for Rodgers to reach 22 completions tonight -- a bar he's met a total of 8 times in 16 games this year, including in 7 of his last 11 games -- is fairly obvious.
The advanced stats on Rodgers' time-to-throw (2.59 seconds, per NFL Next Gen Stats) and the average distance his passes have traveled this year, as well as the Texans' well-documented pass-rushing prowess, make this prop that much more difficult to resist.
Only two quarterbacks in the league, Dillon Gabriel and Kyler Murray, averaged fewer intended air yards per pass attempt (average depth of target, whether completed or not) than Rodgers' 6.0 IAY/PA. His 3.7 completed air yards per completion was also the lowest number in the league. Translation: he's dinking and dunking, and there's little reason to expect that to change tonight against the Texans -- whether that approach is paying dividends or not.
Houston is one of the top run-stopping defenses against the league, and the Steelers have not been committed to their ground game. In fact, only four teams in the league had fewer rushing attempts than Pittsburgh's 407.
One last reason to like this prop is the fact that the Texans -- who finished the regular season No. 23 in third-down conversion rate (37.2%), tied-No. 20 in total first downs gained (323) and No. 25 in yards per play (5.1) -- appear unlikely to keep Rodgers and Co. sidelined for long stretches.
Make Texans vs. Steelers Predictions At Kalshi
You can make your predictions on who will win this matchup at prediction markets like Kalshi. To create your Kalshi account and receive a $10 bonus after completing $100 in trades, sign up here or via the links below.
CJ Stroud Longest Completion 40+ Yards (+162 at DK) -- 0.5 units
While Rodgers will likely once again rely on short, underneath passes tonight, I expect his Texans counterpart, CJ Stroud, to take some shots downfield.
This prop is tempting after Stroud recorded completions of at least 50 yards in three of his final five regular-season contests. On the year, Stroud's 7.9 IAY/PA ranked just 17th in the league. But his four most aggressive games of the season in terms of IAY/PA all came in Week 14 or later: he posted an IAY/PA of 8.7 or higher in Weeks 13, 14, 16 and 17.
Anyone who watched the Steelers' win over the Ravens last Sunday night will understand why we're bullish on Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins and/or Jaylin Noel breaking open for a long catch or two in this particular matchup.
The Steelers had multiple coverage breakdowns against the Ravens last week. They allowed Lamar Jackson to find Zay Flowers for wide-open touchdowns of 50 and 64 yards, and they also gave up a 38-yard TD pass to Devontez Walker and a 26-yard completion to TE Isaiah Likely.
The Steelers were burned by the Browns' Cedric Tillman on a 42-yard bomb in Week 17. In Week 16, they gave up receptions of at least 20 yards to four different Detroit pass-catchers: Jameson Williams, Kalif Raymond, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Isaac TeSlaa.
Tonight, Pittsburgh has to contend with Collins, who has been one of the top deep threats in the league throughout his career (he's averaged 15 yards per catch throughout his five-year career, including 15.7 ypc this season).
Texans rookies Higgins and Noel have also recently flashed as deep threats, with each recording a 40-plus yard catch against the Chargers in Week 17.
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