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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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With the 12-team College Football Playoff set, it's no surprise to see that Ohio State has the consensus shortest odds to win the national championship.
In addition to being the clear betting favorites at top sportsbooks, the Buckeyes also lead the pack at prediction market Kalshi.
Below, let's dive into Kalshi's college football championship winner market and how the Buckeyes and the rest of the 12-team field are currently priced. We'll wrap this piece up with our pre-CFP take on whether there's more value in tailing or fading the Buckeyes.
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Kalshi College Football National Championship Winner Odds
As you can see, Kalshi -- like most sportsbooks -- sees Ohio State as the team to beat, to say the least, at a price of 30 cents -- think +233 in American odds (and for those new to prediction markets, we'll spell out more on how prediction market probability translates to American odds).
Indiana, which just beat OSU 13-10 in last Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game, is currently priced at 22 cents (+355). Georgia (16 cents/+525), Texas Tech (11 cents/+809) and Oregon (11 cents/+809) enter the 12-team CFP as second-tier contenders.
They are followed by heavy underdogs Texas A&M (5 cents/+1900), Alabama (4 cents/+2400), Ole Miss (4 cents), Miami (3 cents/+3233) and Oklahoma (3 cents)
G5 representatives Tulane and JMU -- who are both catching at least 17 points in their first-round matchups -- are both priced at 1 cent (+9900) as of Wednesday afternoon.
How Do Kalshi CFP Winner Odds Work? Converting To American Odds, Calculating Winnings
The good news for anyone new to prediction markets is that calculating the probability and payout that a certain price reflects is straightforward.
Let's start with a hypothetical trade on Ohio State, for example, at "Yes 30 cents." This means that you would need to trade 30 cents to win $1 -- and if you traded $100 on this market, your "payout if yes" would be $317.
For Indiana "Yes 22 cents," you're trading 22 cents to win -- you guessed it -- $1. Trading $100 on Indiana at this price would yield a payout if yes of $431.
Below, we've created a handy chart to help you understand what a given predictions market probability equates to in terms of American betting odds (and winnings/payout):
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Breaking Down CFP Favorite Ohio State: Tail Or Fade The Buckeyes?
Let's start our breakdown of who to bet on with the pros and cons of the heavily favored Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1, 9-0 Big Ten).
Ohio State Betting Analysis, Prediction
The first question when breaking down the odds for this year's College Football Playoff has to be, "Ohio State or the field?"
Given how obvious the case in favor of the reigning champs is at this point, let's start with what -- if any -- cause for concerns we have about the favorites.
The Case Against OSU: Could Red-Zone Issues Or Play-Calling Derail Buckeyes?
Even after the Buckeyes' head-scratching loss to Indiana last Saturday night in the Big Ten Championship Game, it's hard to deny that OSU's ceiling is the highest of any team in the field.
For the second time in two years, though, a loaded Ohio State squad's final regular-season game raised questions about whether the Buckeyes are aggressive enough offensively to reach their considerable ceiling. Last year, a loss to Michigan in the regular-season finale raised major concerns, as the Buckeyes were stunned, 13-10, in Columbus by a Wolverines squad that finished the season 8-5. It would be an understatement to say that in hindsight, those concerns were merely overreactions to an loss to hated UM.
Day and last year's play-caller, Chip Kelly, opened things up in the playoffs. OSU then overwhelmed Tennessee (42-17), Oregon (41-21), Texas (28-14) and Notre Dame (34-23) for its first natty since 2014 thanks to an aggressive offensive approach that maximized that loaded squad (the 15 2025 NFL Draft picks from Ohio State included six on the offensive side of the ball).
A year later, the Buckeyes enter the Playoff with a loaded roster, but there are questions at both OC and quarterback.
Sophomore signal caller Julian Sayin put up excellent numbers in his first year at the helm (279-of-356 passing, for 3,323 yards, 31 TDs, 6 interceptions, with just 11 sacks). But against the best defenses he faced, Sayin and the Buckeyes did struggle in a couple of high-pressure situations, and there have been some troubling red-zone miscues down the stretch this year, not to mention a crucial missed field goal by Jayden Fielding.
In addition to scoring a total of just 24 points against Texas (ESPN SP+ No. 20 defense) in the season opener and Indiana (ESPN SP+ No. 2 D) in the Big Ten title game, the Buckeyes were "held" to 24 points by Washington (ESPN SP+ No. 14 D) and 27 points by Michigan (ESPN SP+ No. 12 D).
This year's performances against the Huskies and Wolverines were more than enough for comfortable wins, but they showed that quality defenses can at least keep Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith and Co. in check.
Given the way this offense operated with the Big Ten Championship on the line, the decision-making by Ryan Day and OC Brian Hartline (while the latter juggles the demands of his new position) stands out to me as this loaded team's biggest question mark.
Their commitment to a plodding, ball-control approach against the Hoosiers backfired spectacularly in the second half of the loss to Indiana. And remember, Hartline was hired last Wednesday, December 3, to take over as head coach of South Florida. He called the plays for Ohio State on Saturday night, and he will remain his team's play-caller throughout the playoffs.
OSU went 3-and-out on its first possession of the second half. On its next drive, Ohio State took 6:28 and 12 plays to march 70 yards, but that series produced 0 points after a failed fourth-and-1 attempt, a QB sneak from Sayin from the Indiana 5-yard line.
The Buckeyes mounted another long drive (15 plays, 81 yards, 7:57 TOP) that reached the Indiana 9-yard line in the fourth quarter. That one also came up empty after Fielding's missed 27-yard field-goal attempt. Ohio State did not have the ball back in its possession until it took over at its own 13-yard line with 13 seconds on the clock.
The (Obvious) Case For Ohio State
Somehow, for most of this season, the Buckeyes have looked even more dominant than they did a year ago. Yes, a squad that had 15 (!) players drafted last April -- and replaced both offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and DC Jim Knowles -- might have gotten better over the offseason.
The season-opening win over Texas was hardly an offensive masterpiece, but the defense was lights-out against the preseason No. 1 team in the country. Four months later, former Alabama star safety Caleb Downs remains a likely top-10 pick from this defense, but he could be joined by a couple of teammates from this year's OSU D. Linebackers Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese are expected to be drafted in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, and defensive tackle Kayden McDonald and CB Davison Igbinosun are among the other coveted pro prospects at first-year DC Matt Patricia's disposal.
The Buckeyes' offense contains at least three future first-rounders in WRs Carnell Tate, Jeremiah Smith and Sayin. That abundance of talent helped the Buckeyes average nearly 35 points per game while giving up just 8.2 points per game (by far the fewest in the country).
Entering the playoff, it's a compliment to the Buckeyes to note that a cautious approach by their coaching staff might be more of an impediment to their chances than any of the 11 teams in the field.
How To Bet On College Football Playoff Winner: Take The Field Over OSU
A year ago, I was skeptical of Ohio State until about the second quarter of their playoff opener vs. Tennessee.
For better or worse, I'm once again going with a pre-CFP take that someone besides Ohio State is more likely to win the national title than the reigning champs.
Unfortunately, Kalshi does not offer "Ohio State vs. the field markets," but right now, I'd say that Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech and Oregon all offer more value based on how these teams are currently priced.
Stay tuned next week for analysis on those teams, plus a College Football Playoff best value bet before the first round gets underway next Friday night.
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