The latest NFL MVP betting odds show that Drake Maye is the clear favorite entering Week 18. (Photo by Evan Bernstein/Getty Images)

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Tyler Everett

By Tyler Everett

Sports Betting Editor

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With one week left in the 2025 regular season, it's clear based on the odds at both legal sportsbooks and prediction markets like Kalshi that this year's MVP will be either Patriots QB Drake Maye or Rams QB Matthew Stafford.

The latter entered Week 17 as the clear favorite ahead of Maye. But after the Pats' second-year star lit up the Jets this weekend and Stafford endured a three-interception night in an upset loss to Atlanta, Maye has the shortest NFL MVP odds across the board.

FanDuel, for one, lists Maye at -475 as of Wednesday morning, while Stafford's current odds range from +300 to +320.

As we dive into the latest NFL MVP betting odds and best bets below, including the Kalshi NFL MVP odds, we'll take a look at how Maye has emerged as the favorite in just his second season in the league and whether Stafford can close the apparent gap in this race in Week 18.

Latest NFL MVP Odds At Kalshi: Drake Maye Currently Favored

The chart above offers an illustrative look at how the race between Stafford and Maye has played out over the last few weeks. With Stafford putting up big numbers for a team that entered Week 13 at 9-2, trade activity at Kalshi moved Stafford's chance (price) from around 50 percent as of early December to close to 70 percent going into Week 17.

Even after the Rams came down to earth a bit with losses to the Panthers in Week 13 and the Seahawks in Week 16, Stafford was seemingly in position to seal up this award with a strong performance and/or a victory against the Falcons last night.

But Stafford's three-interception performance in a loss -- easily his worst of the season -- coupled with a monster day by Maye against the Jets earlier in the weekend, combined to turn this race upside down.

As with most markets, the activity in the NFL MVP market at Kalshi has mirrored what we're seeing at not only other prediction markets, but also at top sportsbooks.

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If you don't have an account set up at Kalshi, just click here to register, or use the link below to score $10 in bonuses after signing up and making $100 worth of trades at Kalshi.

Why Is Drake Maye Now Favored To Win NFL MVP?

Maye has been squarely in the MVP conversation for weeks thanks to his excellent play for New England, which is 13-3 and in contention for the 1-seed in the AFC after going just 4-13 in Maye's rookie campaign.

Despite preseason questions regarding Maye's supporting cast, he's put up very good numbers. Maye has completed 340 of 474 passes (71.7 percent) for 4,203 yards, with 30 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. His yards per attempt (8.9) and passer rating (112.9), as well as his completion percentage, are superior to Stafford's.

Maye has also been a valuable dual threat for the Pats, rushing for 409 yards and 4 TDs on 98 carries (4.2 ypc).

Thanks to those numbers, Maye has much shorter odds than Stafford at every major sportsbook:

What Is The Case Against Drake Maye For MVP?

The "knocks" on Maye are few and far between, but those advocating for Stafford to win the award have two compelling arguments:

It's hard to dispute the strength of schedule argument. Stafford has faced the Seahawks' top-notch defense twice, and the Rams have played seven total games against playoff teams (not including Baltimore, Carolina and Tampa Bay, who are all still in the hunt). Against Houston, Philadelphia, San Francisco (2x), Jacksonville and Seattle (2x), the Rams have gone 5-2, and they also beat both Baltimore and Tampa Bay.

New England split its series with Buffalo, and it also boasts wins over Carolina, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Tampa Bay, but it will finish the season with a maximum of three wins over playoff teams.

NFL MVP Best Bet: Can Matthew Stafford Still Win NFL MVP?

As one-sided as the odds currently are, I wouldn't rule out Stafford winning this award just yet. It's hard to overstate how significant it is that the odds we've referenced throughout this piece reflect public perception of where NFL AP MVP voters will land. Votes on awards as subjective as MVP are always hard to predict, and given how close the resumes are for Stafford and Maye, a close vote should come as no surprise.

Remember, MVP odds for Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen fluctuated throughout the last few weeks of the 2024 campaign before Allen narrowly won the vote over Jackson (27-22).

One interesting thing to note with one week remaining is that Maye will be in action Sunday for the Patriots, who still have an outside shot at the 1-seed in the AFC.

The Rams, on the other hand, could be in a situation where their Week 18 matchup with the Cardinals is meaningless. We know L.A. will not win the NFC West, and we also know that it has already clinched a playoff berth. But Saturday's NFC West battle between the Seahawks and 49ers will leave the Rams locked into the 6-seed if the 49ers win. If the Seahawks beat the 49ers, the Rams will need to beat Arizona to clinch the 5-seed.

The possibility of the Rams sitting Stafford and their starters this weekend is one to keep in mind.

Right now, given how much tougher Stafford and the Rams' schedule has been than Maye and the Pats', a small play (like a quarter-unit) on Maye strikes me as a smart move in a vote that could be much more split than what last night's flurry of betting activity would lead us to believe.

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