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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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After starting our series on how to bet on the 2025 Heisman Trophy race with early betting favorite Arch Manning, today we're turning our attention to LSU's Garrett Nussmeier.
Nussmeier's odds, like Manning's, are 10-to-1 or shorter across the board.
The fifth-year senior was one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country in 2024. Now, he enters his second season as the starter in Baton Rouge with sky-high expectations.
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Keep an eye on Newsweek Sports Betting over the next few weks for similar pieces on each of the 2025 Heisman favorites as we wrap up July and head into August.
Garrett Nussmeier Heisman Odds (July 22)
Below are Nussmeier's current Heisman Trophy odds at DraftKings, FanDuel, bet365, Caesars, Fanatics and ESPN BET.
Where Nussmeier ranks in each sportsbook's pecking order is noted in parentheses.
Garrett Nussmeier Heisman Betting Analysis
The fifth-year senior -- who backed up Max Johnson in 2021 and Jayden Daniels in 2022 and 2023 -- has an NFL frame (6-foot-2, 200 pounds) and 744 career pass attempts under his belt, including a 4,000-yard season in 2024.
That -- plus his pedigree as the son of former Saints QB and current New Orleans offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier -- helps explain why he enters the 2025 season one of the top three favorites to be taken No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft.
As of July 22, Nussmeier is +425 to be the No. 1 pick in next year's draft, just behind Manning at +225 and Allar at +275.
But the question we're tackling today is whether he offers value at his current odds to become LSU's second Heisman winner in the last three years after Daniels in 2023.
Garret Nussmeier 2024 Stats
Below are Nussmeier's stats across his 13 starts for the Tigers, who finished 9-4 (5-3 SEC).
Nussmeier and the Tigers had their ups and downs last fall.
LSU was ranked as high as No. 8 in late October, but then endured a three-game losing streak en route to a 9-4 (5-3 SEC) finish.
Nussmeier's ceiling was on display late in LSU's home upset of Ole Miss in October and in the final three games of the year. He completed over 70 percent of his passes in each of his team's wins over Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Baylor.
But Nussmeier struggled during the three-game skid that put a damper on an otherwise strong year.
He completed just 50 percent of his 50 passes and was intercepted three times in a 38-23 loss to Texas A&M on Oct. 26.
Two weeks later, following a Nov. 2 bye, Nussmeier threw two more picks in a blowout home loss to Alabama on Nov. 9.
He also went just 27-for-47 for 260 yards and 1 TD, while being sacked seven times, as LSU lost 27-16 to Florida on Nov. 16.
Garrett Nussmeier vs. Top-50 Defenses (per ESPN SP+) In 2024
LSU's schedule a year ago only featured three teams -- No. 11 Ole Miss, No. 17 Alabama and No. 19 South Carolina -- that finished the year in the AP Top 25.
The Tigers did, however, face nine top-50 defenses, according to ESPN's SP+.
Here's how Nussmeier fared against those units:
Nussmeier and the Tigers proved against South Carolina and Oklahoma that they could put up big numbers against quality defenses. And they also deserve credit for coming through in the clutch vs. Ole Miss to salvage an otherwise ugly night.
Still, given his struggles against Ole Miss, Alabama, Texas A&M and Florida last year, there's good reason to wonder what kind of numbers Nussmeier will be able to post against another brutal schedule in 2025.
This year, LSU has another tough season opener on the road at Clemson. Dabo Swinney's team is currently a 3-point favorite in that matchup.
In case you haven't heard, LSU is looking to start the year 1-0 for the first time in four seasons under coach Brian Kelly after losing to FSU in 2022 and 2023 and USC last year.
LSU will also once again face Florida (home, Sept. 13), Ole Miss (away, Sept. 27), South Carolina (home, Oct. 11), Texas A&M (home, Oct. 25), Alabama (away, Nov. 8) and Oklahoma (away, Nov. 29).
Buy Or Sell: Nussmeier To Win Heisman Trophy
Best available odds: +900 (Fanatics, ESPN BET as of July 22)
Sell
On an LSU offense replacing four starting linemen who are now in the NFL (including No. 4 overall pick Will Campbell) plus top tight end Mason Taylor and WR Kyren Lacy, I just don't see Nussmeier putting up Heisman-worthy numbers.
Let's consider the glass-half-full take on Nussmeier and Co. for a second, though. The best-case scenario for the offense as a whole starts with the running game taking a step forward after then-freshman Caden Durham battled injuries a year ago.
And -- as usual -- LSU will also have plenty of talent at WR.
With leading receiver Aaron Anderson returning and Barion Brown (Kentucky), Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and tight end Bauer Sharp (also from OU) providing a boost via the transfer portal, the Tigers will hardly lack for playmakers.
I think the young LSU offensive line will experience some growing pains, though. The inexperience up front will make it hard for this offense to move the ball at times, starting on Aug. 30 vs. a Clemson D-line featuring projected 2026 first-rounders TJ Parker and Peter Woods.
Unless the Tigers' unproven front five dramatically exceeds expectations, I would pencil in Nussmeier for similar numbers to last year's (plenty good enough for All-SEC contention, but not quite All-American or Heisman contention).
It also doesn't help Nussmeier's Heisman case -- especially at shorter than 10-to-1 odds -- that he's at risk of being overshadowed by fellow SEC QB Heisman contenders Arch Manning at Texas and LaNorris Sellers at South Carolina.
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