...
By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Tonight's South Region Final in Houston between 9-seed Iowa and 3-seed Illinois brings a rematch between the Big Ten rivals who met back in January.
Illinois -- which won the first meeting 75-69 in Iowa City after jumping out to a 35-24 lead at halftime -- is favored by 6.5 to 7 points tonight, depending on the sportsbook.
Sign up now for Newsweek Sports Betting 📩
The Illini are coming off one of the most impressive performances of the tournament, a 65-55 win over 2-seed Houston in what was essentially a home game for the Cougars at Toyota Center. In this tournament, Illinois has outscored 14-seed Penn, 11-seed VCU and 2-seed Houston by a combined 66 (!) points.
Iowa has been impressive in its own right in the Big Dance, smothering Clemson in the Round of 64, shocking reigning national champ Florida in the Round of 32 and outlasting Nebraska in the Sweet 16.
Neither Iowa's Bennett Stirtz nor Illinois' Keaton Wagler entered the season with the same amount of fanfare as Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa or Cameron Boozer, but they've been two of the best guards in the NCAA Tournament, and that's probably an understatement.
How To Watch Iowa vs. Illinois Elite 8 Matchup
- Time: 6:09 p.m. ET
- TV: TBS/truTV
Iowa vs. Illinois Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total
Best Iowa vs. Illinois Player Prop Bet
Iowa F Alvaro Folgueiras Over 3.5 Rebounds (-105 at FanDuel) -- 1 unit
The Hawkeyes' 6-foot-10 junior forward has been one of the heroes of his team's run so far, and he'll need to have another big game tonight to keep Iowa's season alive.
Folgueiras has averaged just 21 minutes per game this season, but he's been an excellent rebounder throughout his three-year career. Case in point: his rebounds per 40 minutes averages of 10.1 as a freshman for Robert Morris in 2023-24, 12.4 as a sophomore for RMU in '24-25 and a solid 7.1 for Iowa this season in a reduced role.
But he played 29 minutes vs. Nebraska in the Sweet 16 and came through with 16 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals. Folgueiras also scored 14 points apiece in his team's wins over Clemson and Florida in just 38 minutes total.
He only grabbed a total of 11 rebounds in those three games, but Iowa will need him to play a huge role tonight against one of the biggest and best rebounding teams in the country.
Fortunately, we don't have to guess whether Iowa coach Ben McCollum would choose to lean on Folgueiras against the massive Illini. In the regular-season matchup between these teams, Folgueiras got his only start of the year, played a season-high 34 minutes and grabbed a season-high eight rebounds, all while committing just one personal foul.
It all adds up to a strong case for Folgueiras not only clearing this line, but potentially flirting with double-digit rebounds.
Remember, while playing heavy minutes (29 mpg) for Robert Morris last year -- and posting huge numbers that earned him Horizon League Player of the Year honors -- Folgueiras averaged 9.1 rebounds per game.
He has played at least 30 minutes 19 times in his career (though only twice for Iowa, it should be noted), and he finished with 8+ rebounds 14 (!) times in 19 tries, including 11 games with at least 10 boards.
In case you're wondering: at FD, Folgueiras is currently priced at +350 to grab 6+ rebounds and +1200 to grab 8+ rebounds...
Trade On Iowa vs. Illinois, Elite 8 Action At Kalshi
Sign Up With Kalshi Promo Code WEEK For $10 Bonus On NCAA Tournament Elite 8
Click here or use the links below to create a Kalshi account and get started with a $10 bonus after completing registration and making $100 worth of trades.
Iowa vs. Illinois Analysis, Prediction, Best ATS Bets
Latest Iowa vs. Illinois Injury News
A total of four players for Iowa and Nebraska are listed as out on the NCAA DI Men's Basketball Player Availability Report, but none of them have played major roles this season.
Based on what we've seen from these teams in March Madness, I'm not itching to bet against either of them right now. Stirtz and Folgueiras have come through over and over in crunch time for the Hawkeyes (just ask Florida and Nebraska), and Ben McCollum might be the best, most underrated (but probably not for long) in-game coach in the country.
But Illinois has an incredible amount of size and versatility, with three legit weapons off the bench, including Andrej Stojakovic.
If these teams played in a best of seven series, I'd probably go with the Illini to win it in seven games. As impressive as Iowa was against Florida and Nebraska, it's hard to unsee how much this team struggled to get good looks against Illinois in the regular season clash. The Hawkeyes shot just 41 percent from the field in that game, including less than 50 percent (18-for-37) on 2-point attempts.
Tonight, I'll take the Illini to win a close one, but I like the Hawkeyes to cover the spread. I'm also tempted to take Iowa on the first-half moneyline after three of the four betting underdogs last night -- St. John's, Tennessee and Alabama -- all went into halftime with a narrow lead.
Prediction: Illinois to advance
Best bets against the spread:
- Iowa +7 (-115 at bet365) -- 1 unit
- Iowa 1H ML (+168 at FanDuel) -- 0.25 units
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator's terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines