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By Tyler Everett
Sports Betting Editor
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With all eyes on the NBA Cup over the last few days, league Commissioner Adam Silver addressed one of the top big-picture topics: expansion.
In revealing that a decision on domestic expansion will be made in 2026, Silver sparked a flurry of betting action on prediction markets like Kalshi, which currently offers a "Will the NBA add a new team before 2030?" and a "Seattle team play game before 2030" market.
Below, let's break down the latest news and NBA expansion betting odds, plus a best bet based on what we know as of Wednesday, December 17.
Kalshi Odds On Whether NBA Will Expand Before 2030
As the chart above shows, bettors at Kalshi have been betting on the NBA to expand before 2030 for the past year. Even after a brief recent dip, market activity has pushed the chances of the NBA adding a new team before 2030 to 79 percent as of the morning of Wednesday, December 17.
For those unfamiliar with the prices/odds listed at prediction markets like Kalshi, a 79% chance equates to American odds of -376. Translation: it's not quite an open secret that the NBA will welcome in at least one new team by 2030, but it appears far more likely to come to fruition than not.
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Latest NBA Expansion News, Comments From Adam Silver
Prior to the NBA Cup Championship in Las Vegas on Tuesday night, Silver offered several new details on potential expansion at a press conference.
The headline was Silver's confirmation that "sometime in 2026 we'll make a determination" on expansion.
He also did little to push back on the widespread expectation that Las Vegas and Seattle will be the two cities that will be awarded new franchises.
"Not a secret, we’re looking at this market in Las Vegas. We are looking at Seattle," Silver said. "We’ve looked at other markets as well. I’d say I want to be sensitive there about this notion that we’re somehow teasing these markets, because I know we’ve been talking about it for a while."
Seattle previously had a team in the NBA, the SuperSonics, from 1967 through 2008, before the team moved to Oklahoma City and rebranded as the Thunder. Between Summer League, the Aces in the WNBA and the NBA Cup, Vegas has had a strong presence in the league for years, so much so that it's widely referred to for years as the 31st NBA city.
Prediction, Best Bet On NBA Expansion Before 2030
There's a good reason why "yes" (as in yes, the NBA will expand before 2030) has remained the popular choice at Kalshi since this market opened a year ago.
Silver's comments last night did little to raise doubts about expansion of the league. The question seemingly remains when, not if we'll see new franchises join the mix. Silver did address the biggest obstacle that remains: the fact that one or two new teams would decrease each team owner's equity.
"As I've said before, domestic expansion, as opposed to doing a new league in Europe, is selling equity in this current league," he said. "If you own 1/30 of this league, now you own 1/32 if you add two teams. So it's a much more difficult economic analysis. In many ways, it requires predicting the future."
I don't have an outside-the-box take here, though. Expansion has felt inevitable for a long time, and with the odds currently at 79% (equivalent to +376 in American odds), "yes" strikes me as a solid move right now, albeit one with limited upside given that it would take a $376 investment to earn $100 if expansion does indeed get the green light by 2030.
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