Newsweek breaks down how to bet on today’s NCAAT Round of 32 action, including the must-see meeting between St. John’s and Kansas. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

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Tyler Everett

By Tyler Everett

Sports Betting Editor

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The final day of a memorable opening weekend of the 2026 NCAA Tournament features several massive matchups, including a Rick Pitino vs. Bill Self showdown in St. John's (5) vs. Kansas (4).

Oddsmakers see several of tonight's games as evenly matched: betting favorites Iowa State (2), St. John's (5), Tennessee (6), UConn (2) and Texas Tech (5) are each laying 6 points or fewer.

Betting favorites went 16-0 SU on Friday (12-4 ATS), but yesterday was not quite as chalky, as favorites went 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS).

After nailing 18-of-29 ATS picks across Friday's Round of 64 games and Saturday's Round of 32 contests -- 12/19 on Friday and 6/10 on Saturday -- let's see if we can wrap up the opening weekend of the Big Dance with another profitable outing.

Notes:

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Kentucky (7) vs. Iowa State (2) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets

Midwest Region, 2:45 p.m. (CBS)

Iowa State will be without one of its top players, F Joshua Jefferson, who has been ruled out due to an ankle injury.

The Cyclones are nevertheless the clear favorites over Kentucky, which needed a buzzer-beating heave to force overtime in its first-round matchup against Santa Clara.

I like Iowa State to advance, even though it will sorely miss Jefferson, but I'm not convinced the Cyclones will cover.

This spread is a stay-away, IMO, and ISU on the moneyline is easy to resist at shorter than -200, so if anything, I'd take Kentucky to start off strong and cover at +2.5 on the first-half spread.

Prediction: Iowa State to advance

Best bet: KY 1H +2.5 (-110) -- 1 unit

St. John's (5) vs. Kansas (4) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets

East Region, 5:15 p.m. (CBS)

It's impossible to talk about St. John's vs. Kansas without mentioning Johnnies big man Zuby Ejiofor, who began his college career as a Jayhawk. Expect a massive showing today from Ejiofor, who has blossomed under Rick Pitino since failing to carve out a role for Bill Self's team. Related: the Athletic's Ian O'Connor's recently published profile on Ejiofor -- which details why he left Kansas -- is a must-read ahead of this matchup.

Kansas and St. John's are both excellent defensive teams, and both have struggled from outside this season. With that in mind, the Under is the best play in what should be a close, low-scoring game.

Prediction: St. John's to advance

Best bet: Under 145.5 (-110) -- 1 unit

Tennessee (6) vs. Virginia (3) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets

Midwest Region, 6:10 p.m. (TNT)

It's telling that the 6-seed Volunteers are slight favorites over 3-seed Virginia in the Midwest. One of Virginia's biggest strengths, its deep frontcourt, projects to be less of an advantage against Tennessee, which has been the offensive rebounding team in the country this season.

This one should come down to who can create -- and make -- more tough shots down the stretch. If so, I like star Tennessee freshman Nate Ament to make the difference in the "upset."

Prediction: Tennessee to advance

Best bet: TENN -1.5 (+102)

Iowa (9) vs. Florida (1) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets

South Region, 7:10 p.m. (TBS)

I've been a big believer in Bennett Stirtz and the Hawkeyes this season, but I like Florida to roll in this matchup.

Iowa has been able to keep almost every game this season close for 40 minutes, including a 71-68 late-season loss to Michigan.

The Hawkeyes did struggle against the size and athleticism of Michigan State (MSU 71, IOWA 52 on December 2) and Purdue (PUR 78, IOWA 57 on February 14), though. The massive Gators should be able to shut down the Hawkeyes and pull away from an opponent that prefers as few possessions as possible (Iowa's adjusted tempo of 62.8 possessions per 40 minutes is No. 361 in the country).

Their deliberate style is going to make it hard for them to get back in this game if the Hawkeyes fall into an early hole.

Prediction: Florida to advance

Best bet: Florida -9.5 (-115) -- 1 unit

Utah State (9) vs. Arizona (1) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets

West Region, 7:50 p.m. (truTV)

The Wildcats' NCAA Tournament opener was never in doubt, and I expect the Big 12 champs to cruise again against Utah State. Arizona is just too deep for the Mountain West champs, who needed a second-half comeback to take down Villanova in the Round of 64.

Utah State's strength of schedule this year was No. 79 nationally, according to KenPom.com. Though the Aggies impressed down the stretch against Villanova on Friday, I'm not taking a team this unproven to hang with an Arizona squad that is arguably the deepest and most balanced in the nation, with 7 players who average at least 9 points per game.

Prediction: Arizona to advance

Best bet: Arizona -11.5 (-112) -- 1 unit

UCLA (7) vs. UConn (2) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets

East Region, 8:45 p.m. (TNT)

Injury concerns for the Bruins and the Huskies make this a tough one to predict. UCLA will likely be without big man Tyler Bilodeau, who leads the team in scoring, while UConn lists guards Silas Demary Jr. and Jaylin Stewart as questionable.

The biggest question for UCLA -- besides whether Bilodeau will be available -- is how it will match up against UConn center Tarris Reed. The big man is coming off a 31-point, 27-rebound explosion against Furman in the first round. The Huskies didn't get much from anyone besides Reed in that game, though*, and even if Bilodeau is out tonight, UCLA has enough size down low to at least keep Reed in check.

The total in this one is relatively low at 136.5, but I still like the Under, as both these teams will likely struggle to score, especially if Bilodeau, Demary and/or Stewart are unavailable or limited. As for the winner, I'll stick with UCLA -- which I picked to reach the Elite 8 -- to survive a slugfest.

Prediction: UCLA to advance

Best bet: Under 136.5 (-115) -- 1 unit

*Reed shot a remarkable 12-for-15 from the floor, but his teammates combined to go 20-for-50 from the floor, including just 5-for-25 from 3-point range.

Texas Tech (5) vs. Alabama (4) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets

Midwest Region, 2:45 p.m. (CBS)

While both Texas Tech and Alabama are missing key players (JT Toppin for the Red Raiders and Aden Holloway for the Crimson Tide), there is still a ton of firepower in both lineups.

After both teams scored at least 90 points in their first-round victories, I'm most confident in the over cashing in this one. So far this season, the over has cashed in 17 of Alabma's 32 games (including 8 of its last 12). More specifically, in Alabama's games with a total of at least 164.5 or higher, the record is 15-13-1 to the over.

I like Texas Tech to advance, barely, but this game's total is more tempting than either side of the spread or the moneyline.

Prediction: Texas Tech to advance

Best bet: Over 164.5 (-108) -- 1 unit

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