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By Tyler Everett

Sports Betting Editor

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With just four weeks left in the regular season, every game down the stretch will have a ton on the line. Case in point: 23 teams -- 12 in the AFC and 11 in the NFC -- have still not been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

That's right, for at least one more week, even the likes of the 4-9 Bengals and the 5-8 Minnesota Vikings still technically have a chance to make the playoffs. And there are no more bye weeks remaining, which means 16 games apiece in Weeks 15, 16, 17 and 18.

Alright, without further ado, let's dive into Week 15, which starts with Falcons vs. Buccaneers on Thursday night.

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Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 110-97-2

• Week 1: 7-9
• Week 2: 9-7
• Week 3: 9-7
• Week 4: 6-10
• Week 5: 8-6
• Week 6: 10-5
• Week 7: 11-4
• Week 8: 3-11 🤡🤡🤡
• Week 9: 9-5
• Week 10: 8-6
• Week 11: 6-8-1
• Week 12: 8-5-1
• Week 13: 8-8
• Week 14: 8-6

All odds below via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET

Falcons at Buccaneers (-4.5) -- Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)

Pick: Falcons +4.5

The Bucs (7-6) once again need to put a November swoon behind them to win the NFC South and return to the playoffs. Baker Mayfield and Co. are coming off a home loss to the Saints, and Tampa enters this game having won just two of its last seven following a 5-1 start.

The Falcons (4-9) are just 1-8 over their last nine games, and they were dominated at home last Sunday in a 37-9 loss to the Seahawks.

A comfortable Bucs win feels like the logical result here ... But between Tampa's recent struggles and the fact that Atlanta swept the NFC South champs in 2024 and lost by just a field goal in Week 1, there's good reason to back Atlanta at +4.5.

Browns at Bears (-7.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Browns +7.5

Cleveland (3-10) was upset by Tennessee last Sunday, 31-29, but the Browns had to come away from that loss feeling much better about rookie QB Shedeur Sanders, who threw for 364 yards and three touchdowns.

The Browns D also played better than the final score indicated, giving up just 13 first downs and 4.6 yards per play, but Tennessee broke a couple of long plays and repeatedly took advantage of short fields to break 30 points.

The Bears (9-4) played well the last two weeks, beating the Eagles and pushing the Packers, but I don't expect them to blow out Cleveland, especially after a couple of draining slugfests.

Ravens (-2.5) at Bengals -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Ravens -2.5

The Ravens (6-7) and Bengals (4-9) meet Sunday for the second time in three weeks. Baltimore memorably lost to Cincinnati on Thanksgiving night in Week 13, and John Harbaugh's team cannot afford another loss this week.

Give me the Ravens to bounce back from back-to-back brutal AFC North losses and keep their division title hopes alive in a high-scoring, back-and-forth battle.

Chargers at Chiefs (-4.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Chargers +4.5

Speaking of brutal losses, the Chiefs' (6-7) backs are now all the way up against the wall after Sunday night's awful offensive showing in a home loss to Houston.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Kansas City win this one (assuming it can take care of the football), as the Chargers' (9-4) offense is a mess, but I would be surprised to see the Chiefs win comfortably. For as much as the L.A. offense is struggling, Jim Harbaugh's team is playing well enough defensively to at least keep every game down the stretch close.

Bills (-1.5) at Patriots -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Bills -1.5

The Patriots (11-2) announced themselves as AFC contenders when they beat Buffalo 23-20 back in Week 5, and they enter Week 15 on a remarkable 10-game winning streak.

New England's schedule since it beat Buffalo has been soft, though, which makes it fair to question whether Mike Vrabel's team can pull off the season sweep of the Bills (9-4) this weekend.

Cliche as this will sound, I have a feeling this game will come down to whoever has the ball last. With that in mind, I'll take Josh Allen to work his magic and deliver a game-winning drive in the final minutes.

Commanders at Giants (-2.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Giants -2.5

In this week's edition of "Do I really have to pick one of these teams??," I'm torn. The Commanders (3-10) showed serious signs of life against the Broncos in Week 13, but they proceeded to get blown out by Minnesota last Sunday.

The Giants (2-11) are coming off a bye week. In Jaxson Dart's second game back from injury, I'll go with New York to pull out a close one at home and snap a seven-game losing streak that includes four close losses to likely playoff teams.

Raiders at Eagles (-11.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Eagles -11.5

In another game where staying away would probably be the smart move, the Eagles (8-5) are laying 11.5 points as they look to end a shocking three-game losing streak.

This spread is probably a bit dismissive of just how much is wrong with the Philly offense right now. Still, an Eagles blowout of the Raiders (2-11) strikes me as slightly more likely than either Kenny Pickett or Geno Smith keeping this one close for 60 minutes.

Jets at Jaguars (-12.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Jaguars -12.5

The Jaguars (9-4) are on a roll, with five wins in their last six games, and their current winning streak includes beatdowns of not only the Titans and Cardinals, but also the Chargers and Colts.

At home against the Jets (3-10), I like the Jags to control this matchup with their running game and win by two touchdowns. The Jets have given up over 150 rushing yards six times this year, including four times in the last six weeks. In just their last two games, the Jets gave up over 400 total yards on the ground to the Falcons and Dolphins.

Cardinals at Texans (-10) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Cardinals +10

While I expect the Texans (8-5) to improve to 9-5 on Sunday against the Cardinals, I still haven't seen enough from the Houston offense to trust this team to cover as 10-point favorites.

While Arizona (3-10) is just 1-10 in its last 11, with three losses by at least 19 points in the last three weeks, I like the Cardinals to keep this one close against a Houston team that remains limited offensively.

Packers (-1.5) at Broncos -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Packers -1.5

The Broncos (11-2) just keep winning. Like the Pats, Denver has won 10 in a row since starting 1-2, but its offensive play continues to leave a lot to be desired. Last Sunday, Denver's offense scored just 17 points in the team's 24-17 win over the Raiders, making it five straight games with 20 points or fewer points scored in regulation.

Green Bay (9-3-1) has played well on both sides of the ball in recent weeks, especially in wins over Detroit in Week 13 (31-24) and Chicago (28-21) last Sunday.

It's risky to bet on not one, but two teams that have won 10 games in a row (the Pats and Broncos) to lose at home this weekend, but I like Green Bay -- which looks like the more well-rounded team in this matchup -- to win a close one at Mile High.

Panthers (-2.5) at Saints -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Panthers -2.5

Carolina (7-6) has been arguably the most unpredictable team in the league. This squad is 6-5 outright as the betting underdog (including victories as double-digit underdogs vs. the Packers and Rams), but just 1-1 outright when favored.

It has occurred to me that predicting Carolina games might be as simple as following this team's recent pattern of alternating wins and losses, which it's stuck to for the last six weeks.

A 3-0 turnover margin was a huge reason the Panthers shocked the Rams before their Week 14 bye. That being said, winning that game without their top corner, Jaycee Horn, starting safety Trevon Moehrig, or starting linebacker Christian Rozeboom struck me as a sign that this team should be taken seriously down the stretch.

So should the Saints (3-10), apparently, who have now beaten the top two teams in this division with rookie Tyler Shough under center. New Orleans took down Carolina on the road in Week 10 and Tampa Bay at home in Week 13.

I'd be surprised to see Carolina win this game with any room to spare, but I'll go with the favorite -- which is 6-1 in games decided by 7 points or fewer -- to pull out another close one.

Lions at Rams (-5.5) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Rams -5.5

The Rams (10-3) are scary on both sides of the ball. Last week's 45-17 win over the Cardinals gave them seven wins in their last eight games, including six by at least 14 points.

L.A.'s ability to consistently pull away makes it hard to resist when it's laying less than a touchdown. Detroit (8-5) might keep this one interesting most of the way, but the Rams winning (and covering) has been one of the most sure things in the league lately, and I expect that to continue in Week 15.

Titans at 49ers (-12.5) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: 49ers -12.5

San Francisco (9-4) has won three straight games by an average of 16 points, and I expect another one-sided victory by Kyle Shanahan's team this weekend.

The Titans (2-11) just snapped a seven-game losing streak with last week's win over the Browns. But after seeing the Tennessee D get shredded by Shedeur Sanders, I don't like this team's chances of hanging with San Francisco on the road.

Colts at Seahawks (-13.5) -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Seahawks -13.5

The Seahawks (10-3) have been a safe bet, period, for most of this year. They've been particularly dominant against offenses with shaky quarterback situations.

After bullying Max Brosmer and the Vikings in Week 13 and Kirk Cousins and the Falcons in Week 14, Seattle will likely face sixth-round rookie Riley Leonard, who is dealing with a knee injury, journeyman Brett Rypien ... or maybe even a desperation free agent signing like 44-year-old Philip Rivers??

That's right, Rivers, who has not played since 2020, was signed to the Colts' practice squad on Tuesday. For this week, he will presumably be an emergency option if Leonard is unavailable. Regardless of who is under center for the Colts, he's in for a long day.

Seattle will likely be laying 14.5 points or more by kickoff, so now is the time to take Seahawks -13.5.

Vikings at Cowboys (-6) -- Sun., 8:20 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)

Pick: Vikings +6

The Cowboys (6-6-1) remain alive in the NFC East after Philly's loss to the Chargers last night, which makes them dangerous at home on Sunday night. Despite Minnesota's (5-8) recent struggles outside of last Sunday's blowout win over the Commanders, I like the Vikings' D to force a few mistakes by the red-hot Dallas offense.

I'm also not quite convinced that the Cowboys will hold up well enough defensively to cover as 6-point favorites. After solid showings against the Raiders and Eagles in Weeks 11 and 12, the Cowboys gave up a total of 72 points to the Chiefs and Lions the last two weeks.

While the JJ McCarthy-led Minnesota offense has been one of the league's worst for most of the year, it just played easily its best game of the season last week, racking up 162 rushing yards and 25 first downs.

Dolphins at Steelers (-3) -- Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Pick: Dolphins +3

The Steelers (7-6) played well in last week's win over the Ravens to move into first place in the AFC North, but they haven't won two games in a row since they beat Minnesota and Cleveland back in early October.

Pittsburgh has given up over 200 yards on the ground in each of its last two games. That makes the Steelers' run D a massive concern entering Monday's clash with De'Von Achane and the red-hot Dolphins (6-7). Miami has run for a staggering 769 yards (192.25 per game) during its ongoing four-game winning streak.

I might regret taking Dolphins +3 if Pittsburgh can consistently force Tua Tagovailoa into third-and-long, but I can't take the Steelers to cover knowing how much of a mismatch they're dealing with in the front seven.

One other reason to like the Dolphins: in the last four weeks, Miami's pass rush has been tremendous, as you can see below (stats via Pro Football Reference).

For context, keep in mind that the average pressure rate faced by quarterbacks is 21.4%, according to Pro Football Reference.

• Week 10 vs. Buffalo: 3 sacks of Josh Allen, 16 pressures/45 dropbacks (press%: 35.6)
• Week 11 vs. Washington: 1 sack of Marcus Mariota, 5 pressures/32 dropbacks (press%: 15.6)
• Week 13 vs. New Orleans: 4 sacks of Tyler Shough, 9 pressures/45 dropbacks (press%: 20)
• Week 14 vs. New York Jets: 6 sacks of Brady Cook, 10 pressures/36 dropbacks (press%: 27.8)

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