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Despite Arch Manning and Texas's early struggles, today's Red River Rivalry Clash between the Longhorns and No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners is one of the most highly anticipated matchups between these teams in years.
After reaching the College Football Playoff the last two years, Texas entered this campaign at No. 1 in the country, but lost to Ohio State on the road in Week 1, then suffered an upset loss in Gainesville last Saturday.
Just like that, the preseason No. 1 team in the nation entered Week 7 unranked.
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Oklahoma, on the other hand, is off to an excellent start, with impressive wins over Michigan in Week 2 and Auburn in Week 4.
So far this season, transfer QB John Mateer has been as good as advertised, and he has looked right at home under his former offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, after that duo made the offseason move from Washington State to Oklahoma.
How To Watch Texas vs. Oklahoma
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
Texas vs. Oklahoma Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total
Latest John Mateer Injury News
The biggest story heading into today's game -- besides how Manning will rebound from a brutal start to a season that began with Heisman Trophy and No. 1 NFL Draft pick buzz -- is whether Mateer will be in action for Oklahoma.
When it was announced a few weeks ago that he was having surgery to repair a broken bone in his throwing hand, most assumed this weekend's matchup with Texas would be among a few that he would miss. But according to ESPN's Pete Thamel, Mateer was listed as probable on OU's injury report on Thursday.
To me, Texas being favored by 2.5 at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas is a sign that Mateer won't be able to go, but we're unlikely to get clarity on Mateer's availability until just before kickoff.
Expect OU to either rule out Mateer or confirm that he'll be under center sometime during or after pregame warmups just before kickoff, and don't be surprised to see substantial last-second line movement as a result.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Betting Analysis, Injury News
It's hard to overstate how impactful Mateer's possible absence will be this afternoon, but there are a number of other fascinating angles here.
As we alluded to above, it will be fascinating to see how Manning fares against yet another outstanding defense. He faced the No. 1 defense in the country, per ESPN's SP+, in his team's Week 1 trip to Columbus, and the Gators D he struggled against last Saturday is No. 18, according to SP+.
Still, today could bring his toughest test yet, as archrival OU's defense is ranked just behind Ohio State's by a number of advanced metrics, including SP+. Obviously, tweets from a football program's own Twitter account are rarely the best way to decide how to spend your money, but check out the following from OU:
That's a staggering number. And it's even more impressive given that OU has already taken on two solid teams in Michigan and Auburn.
On the injury front, non-Mateer news worth mentioning includes the absence of Texas running back C.J. Baxter. OU WR Keontez Lewis is questionable, and several backup O-linemen for the Sooners are unavailable.
Best Texas vs. Oklahoma Player Prop Bet
Oklahoma Tight End Jaren Kanak o38.5 Receiving Yards (-112 at FanDuel)
The veteran former linebacker has become one of this offense's top targets in his first season at TE.
He's had at least four catches in every game except last week's blowout of Kent State, and he should be primed for plenty of targets today. Kanak had five catches for 69 yards against Michigan's stout defense in Week 2, and he also had a big day vs. Auburn in Week 4 (four catches for 62 yards).
Whether it's Mateer or Hawkins Jr. (or both) under center, Kanak offers a ton of value to clear this line, as he has gone over 60 yards receiving in 4-of-5 games.
In fact, we also recommend small ladder plays on either Kanak 50+ receiving yards (+164 at FD) and/or Kanak 60+ receiving yards (+265 at FD).
Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Best Bets
I can't resist Oklahoma on the moneyline, even if Mateer is out. The Sooners have been absolutely dominant defensively, and it's not like they're untested. The thing Oklahoma does best -- blowing plays up in the backfield -- also makes the Sooners a brutal matchup for a Texas O-line that has often looked overwhelmed through five games.
Manning has not done nearly enough for me to trust him against a defense as stout as OU's, especially up front.
Between Manning's struggles, the quality of the Sooners D and the uncertainty around Mateer, both the under and the first-half under are also tempting plays in this game.
Best bets:
- Oklahoma moneyline (best odds: +115 at bet365)
- First Half Under 22.5 (best odds: -110 at FanDuel)
- Under 44.5 (best odds: -110 at FD, bet365)
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