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By Jon Paul Hoornstra
Contributing Sports Writer
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The Detroit Tigers won their sixth consecutive game on Tuesday, beating the Blue Jays in Toronto. With a 4.5-game deficit behind the Cleveland Guardians for the third and final American League wild-card berth and only 11 games to play, the Tigers' chances of reaching the postseason are slim — less than 2 percent, according to FanGraphs.
As his team has kept hope alive in Detroit, rookie Kevin McGonigle could benefit greatly if the Tigers reach the postseason. The shortstop leads all American League position players in Baseball Reference's version of Wins Above Replacement, and sits third in FanGraphs' version of the stat.
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That matters to MVP voters, who have an interesting puzzle on their hands. The race likely boils down to four candidates for the award, each of whom comes with some flaws. The lack of a clear frontrunner could benefit McGonigle, who would become the first rookie to win an MVP Award since Seattle Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki in 2001.
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Besides his league-leading WAR, McGonigle is a top-10 player in hits, runs, and on-base percentage who made the AL All-Star team in July. At 22, he's done this while leading off and playing a premier defensive position (he's spent a bit more time at shortstop than third base), and accrued nearly as much value in the field than he has with a bat.
McGonigle's MVP case shouldn't rest on whether his team reaches the postseason. But depending on which BBWAA voters are assigned ballots, it might — which calls for a closer examination of the other leading candidates:
Bobby Witt Jr.
The Kansas City Royals shortstop missed some time due to a back injury earlier in the season, and will fall short of the high standards he set for himself in most hitting categories the last two years. He's still the best defensive shortstop in the AL, and leads the league in FanGraphs' version of WAR. Voters might have a hard time looking past the struggles of the Royals, who are on pace to finish last in the AL Central.
Yordan Alvarez
A right ankle injury has slowed Alvarez's chances of winning a Triple Crown (though his .310 batting average, .429 OBP and .594 slugging percentage each led the AL through Tuesday). Unlike McGonigle, Alvarez is primarily a DH who can only win the award on the strength of his bat. Like McGonigle, however, Alvarez has a more compelling case if he leads his team into the postseason. At 76-75 through Tuesday, the Astros are one game ahead of the Texas Rangers in the AL West.
Junior Caminero
The Tampa Bay Rays third baseman has been the best hitter on the American League's best team. His 41 home runs are two more than Alvarez for the league lead. Caminero is an incomplete player; he's leading the AL in errors (18) for the second straight season, and this flaw is reflected in his WAR. If voters can overlook that, and Alvarez's ankle continues to limit his playing time (and possibly the Astros' playoff aspirations), Caminero could be the favorite.
McGonigle might only be the second-best candidate on a plurality of ballots but, if the other players split the first-place vote, that might be enough in a surprisingly even race for the award.
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