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By Rowan Fisher-Shotton
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Just when it looked like things were about to turn around for Lincoln Riley, USC suffered another brutal defeat.
The Trojans opened 4-0, then lost 41-27 at home to Oregon. They then steadied themselves with two straight Big Ten wins over Washington and at Penn State, before falling flat once again, losing at Wisconsin on Saturday. The Badgers are now 5-2 and 3-1 against conference opponents, while USC has dropped to 6-2 and 3-2 in Big Ten play.
With No. 2 Ohio State coming to town in a few days, Riley's margin for error is shrinking. The team came into this season with the top-ranked recruiting class in the country and firmly in the conversation to make the College Football Playoff, something the Trojans still haven't done in the Riley era. A loss to the Buckeyes would put an end to any hopes of still making the CFP, and potentially Riley's tenure as head coach.
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On Tuesday, Dan Patrick emphasized that this could be the biggest game of Riley's career, and floated the idea that he could leave after this season for one Big 12 program, the TCU Horned Frogs.
"It feels like it's a foregone conclusion at USC that Lincoln Riley will not be back. You've got Ohio State coming up this weekend. Now you host Ohio State. [But] this might be the biggest game of his career," Patrick said. "I wonder if Lincoln Riley is going to want to go to a place that doesn't have the spotlight that USC is having.
"I spoke to somebody in the know yesterday, and I said, 'Could you see Lincoln Riley going to Baylor?' He said, 'No, absolutely not.' He goes, 'TCU, I could see Lincoln Riley going to TCU,'" Patrick added. "I don't know what TCU is this year; Sonny Dykes is still there at TCU. But if that is open, is there a mutual parting there? I've said this before: I don't know if Lincoln Riley has ever felt comfortable there in Southern California. I know he got paid to be comfortable. But I was told there was some real consternation about whether he really wants to coach this season."
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TCU is currently 3-4 overall and 1-3 in Big 12 play under head coach Sonny Dykes. The Horned Frogs have struggled to stay consistent this season, losing to North Carolina, UCF, BYU, and West Virginia, although they beat Baylor 17-6 and blew out both Grambling 63-7 and Arkansas State 31-7. Dykes previously led TCU to the national championship game in 2022, his first season as the Frogs' head coach, and just agreed to a multi-year contract extension in April.
While the job is not currently open, TCU is in line for potentially its worst season in years, and if Riley indicates he wants to return to Texas, where he got his coaching start as a student assistant at his alma mater, Texas Tech, a move might make sense. He has recruiting ties in the area and has experience coaching in the Big 12 from his time at Oklahoma. It would relieve some of the pressure that's come with the spotlight of taking on the job at USC as well.
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The Trojans have invested heavily in recruiting, facilities, and giving Riley everything he needs to build a competitive roster. But he still hasn't reached the playoffs, and it doesn't feel like things are going to turn around unless he can get a win on Saturday against Ohio State. The Buckeyes are currently listed as 6.5-point favorites with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET at The Coliseum.
The biggest question mark surrounding Riley's future at USC is the massive $70 million buyout that's been reported. But if he can't start stringing together some wins, the university might have no choice but to cut its losses and move on.
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