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By Rowan Fisher-Shotton
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The first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2026 season dropped on Tuesday night, and they've put Notre Dame in a precarious position heading into one of the biggest games of the year.
Despite holding a 7-1 record and sitting at No. 4 in the latest AP poll, the Fighting Irish came in at No. 11 in the committee's first rankings, just inside the projected 12-team field. Miami leads the way at No. 1, followed by Georgia, Utah, Indiana, and Alabama.
The biggest problem for Notre Dame is that they still don't have a signature win. Even as a one-loss team, they ultimately found themselves behind Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss, all with two losses. BYU, who beat Notre Dame a few weeks ago, came in at No. 9 overall. The Irish sitting on the edge of the playoff picture shows how important the upcoming Miami game is.
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ESPN's Heather Dinich took it a step further on Wednesday's episode of "Get Up," saying that if they lose to Miami and were to finish at 10-2, their season would be "toast."
"They're toast if they lose to Miami," Dinich said. "I said going into this that that's probably a must-win game. If Notre Dame's in the top 12 on Selection Day, they're in. If they lose to Miami, I think they're going to lose a debate with all of these two-loss SEC teams that we're talking about because they lack a statement win."
"Who is it? Is it at North Carolina? Is it the win against Wisconsin that's really going to wow them? Is it later in the season against SMU, which just lost? That's the 55th-ranked schedule, and Hunter Yurachek, the selection committee chair, said yesterday that they have two opponents over .500; they've only won one of those games. That's why they're there," she added.
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Saturday's matchup between the top-ranked Hurricanes and the 7-1 Fighting Irish is going to have a massive impact on the rest of the CFP picture. Miami not only hasn't lost a game yet this season, but they've won seven of their eight games by double digits, scoring 33 or more points in every game, including a 77-7 rout of Florida A&M and a 52-23 whooping of Pitt. Momentum is all on their side right now behind the most dangerous offense in the country led by Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney.
With all of that being said, Miami also has yet to beat a team currently ranked inside the CFP top 25. So they too need a road win over Notre Dame to secure their spot in the standings, even if the Irish need it more. After losing to 28-24 at BYU, Notre Dame has to prove they belong among the nation's elite.
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After Miami, Notre Dame will host Boston College on Nov. 14 and SMU on Nov. 21 before closing out their season at Syracuse. None of those teams are going to make the playoffs, so even if they were to win all three games and lose to Miami, a 10-2 finish would likely see them miss out on the postseason for a second straight year.
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