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By Rowan Fisher-Shotton
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LSU's chances of making the College Football Playoff dropped significantly after Saturday's loss to Alabama, down to just 22% according to ESPN.
The Crimson Tide rolled to a convincing 31-13 victory in Baton Rouge, with the Tigers now 6-3 on the season and 3-3 in SEC play. They've got three remaining games: at home against No. 7 Texas, on the road at No. 13 Tennessee, and on the road at Arkansas. LSU would have to win all three at this point just for a shot at the CFP, and even that's not guaranteed with how competitive the field is this year.
Speaking on Monday morning's episode of "Get Up," ESPN's Paul Finebaum was asked if LSU should have buyer's remorse with the hiring of Lane Kiffin if they don't make the CFP this season.
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"Yes, because he promised to bring a national championship to LSU. That is why he went there," Finebaum said. "And what has he done so far? Not very much. I mean, you watch this game, and it looked just like every other LSU-Alabama game I've ever seen. And why did it look that way? Because Lane Kiffin cannot beat Alabama. He choked his guts up every time there was a big decision to make. And Kalen DeBoer made an absolute fool out of him.
"And not only that, it's just the theatrics around this program," he added. "Lane Kiffin comes in with rappers, Lil Wayne. I'm sure by now you've heard, on Saturday, he brought an all-star [cast]. He brought Kevin Costner in. He made Kevin Costner look like an idiot. And that's really hard to do. One of the greatest actors of our time. He looked like a stooge walking next to Lane Kiffin there. He had Livvy Dunne and Angel Reese. And I bet all of them and Shaq were gone by the fourth quarter because everybody in that stadium was gone by the fourth quarter except the Alabama band and the Alabama fans.
"Even Brian Kelly, who got fired last year, beat Nick Saban in Tiger Stadium. What did Lane Kiffin do? He completely threw an absolute loser and a stinker against Alabama. The big decisions all went against him. He took chances. They blew up in his face. And Kalen DeBoer, who has been often on the hot seat, just made him look like an absolute fool."
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LSU hired Kiffin to a massive seven-year, $91 million contract in December 2025, with an annual salary of around $13 million, making him among the highest-paid coaches in college football. Not only did the school invest millions in the head coach, but they also spent millions on the roster Kiffin wanted to build. The Tigers' 2026 team is estimated to have cost between $40 million and $50 million, making it one of the most expensive and highest-payroll rosters in the sport.
In addition to high investment in Kiffin and his players, Death Valley is also an unforgiving place where national championships are the standard. Brian Kelly was fired last season, just four years into his tenure, during which he never led the Tigers to the CFP. Even the beloved Ed Orgeron was famously let go not even two years after going undefeated and winning a national title at LSU. Simply put, it's not the type of place where a 9-win season earns you much grace.
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Kiffin would be owed 80% of his remaining contract if he were to be fired without cause at any point. That means that if LSU made the decision to fire him at the end of this season, he would be owed more than $62 million, which would be one of the largest buyouts in the history of the sport. It feels unlikely the school would want to eat that just one year into his tenure.
Kiffin will almost certainly be back next year. But if he can't even get LSU into the playoffs this season, he'll head into 2027 firmly on the hot seat.
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