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By Rowan Fisher-Shotton
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Tua Tagovailoa was just released by Miami, the team that drafted him fifth overall in 2020, a move that resulted in an NFL-record $99 million in dead cap money, and he's joining a new team hoping to resurrect his career. If it doesn't work out with the Atlanta Falcons, though, he may become nothing more than an afterthought in the NFL.
But Tagovailoa signed for a one-year, $1.2 million veteran minimum, a low-risk flier for the Falcons. Compare that to the massive investment the franchise made in Michael Penix Jr., the eighth overall pick in 2024, and it's easy to see where the real pressure sits.
After appearing in just five games as a rookie, backing up then-starter Kirk Cousins, Penix's second season with the Falcons was supposed to be the breakout. Instead, he started just nine games, completing 60.1% of his passes for 1,982 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions, before suffering a torn ACL in Week 11 that ended his 2025 season.
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What makes it even more concerning is that it wasn't his first serious injury. He suffered two torn ACLs, a fractured clavicle, and a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder back in college, and there were already questions about his durability heading into the draft. Now people are wondering again if he can truly hold up as a franchise quarterback at the NFL level.
He's shown flashes as an explosive, high-ceiling passer, but his growing injury history, paired with the real possibility of losing the starting job to a veteran on a minimum contract, is why 2026 is so pivotal for Penix.
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Atlanta didn't sign Tagovailoa to be a bridge or backup. Head coach Kevin Stefanski has said from the beginning it's an open competition once Penix is fully healthy, and Penix is expected to be a full go for training camp, though his timeline for Week 1 remains uncertain.
Atlanta is loaded with talent around whoever wins the job. Bijan Robinson is arguably the best running back in football, Drake London just got a four-year, $141 million deal as one of the highest-paid receivers in the league, and Kyle Pitts looked in 2025 like the elite tight end the franchise drafted him to be — and got paid like one too, signing a three-year, $54 million deal in June.
The pieces are in place for whoever starts under center. But if Penix can't beat out Tagovailoa for the job, or worse, gets hurt again, he may find himself playing elsewhere next season as Atlanta turns to Tagovailoa as a potential long-term answer at QB.
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