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By Andrew Stanton
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Media personality and political strategist Steve Bannon recently issued a warning to the MAGA base about its “massive lack of enthusiasm” ahead of this year's midterm elections.
Newsweek reached out to the Republican National Committee (RNC) for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Republicans are hoping to buck the historical trend of the current party in the White House losing seats in the midterms this November. Every seat in the House of Representatives and about one-third of Senate seats are up for grabs. Democrats are leading generic ballot polls of the House but are facing limited pick-up opportunities in the Senate where Republicans’ majority may be able to withstand a blue wave.
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What to Know
Bannon, who served as the White House chief strategist in President Donald Trump's first administration, issued the warning to the MAGA base during a recent episode of his War Room podcast. While he believes Trump is doing a “magnificent job” on the economy, he said Republicans are “running for the hills” amid negotiations over a bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to avoid a shutdown that would affect Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and other agencies.
“There’s nothing to talk about. We control the Senate. We control the House. They’re all sitting there wondering we could lose the Senate. Well, step up and do something,” he said. “You have a massive lack of enthusiasm among the base because they're sitting there going 'I'm just not feeling it right now.'”
Recent polling backs up Bannon’s assessment.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll from November 2025 showed that 44 percent of Democrats were “very enthusiastic” about voting in the midterms compared to 26 percent of Republicans. It surveyed 938 registered voters from November 7-12, 2025.
Voter enthusiasm will be critical to the outcome of key races across the country.
The latest polling shows Democrats with a modest lead on the generic ballot. Nate Silver’s polling aggregate shows Democrats up nearly six points (47.9 percent to 42.3 percent), while Real Clear Politics shows Democrats up 5.2 points (47.7 percent to 42.5 percent).
That would mark a notable leftward shift from 2024 when Republicans won the House popular vote by about 2.6 points, but a smaller lead compared to 2018, the most recent blue wave election when Democrats won the popular vote by 8.6 percentage points.
Republicans have a more favorable path to hold onto control of the Senate. They view Democratic-held seats in Georgia where Senator Jon Ossoff is running for reelection, and Michigan, where Senator Gary Peters is retiring, as potential pick-up seats. Trump won both states in 2024, but Democrats believe a strong national environment will make it tough for Republicans to contest them.
Only one Republican is defending a seat in a state won by former Vice President Kamala Harris won—Senator Susan Collins in Maine, a race viewed as a toss-up due to Collins’ historical popularity in the state. Polarization and a strong national environment could mean she may face her toughest reelection yet, Democrats believe.
Democrats also view the North Carolina seat vacated by GOP Senator Thom Tillis as a solid flip opportunity. Former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is running and is viewed as a top candidate due to his popularity. Trump won the state by three points in 2024.
Even if Republicans lose all of those races, they would still hold a 51-49 majority. Democrats must flip seats in double-digit Trump states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio or Texas for a majority. They are viewed as more conservative states, but early polls do point to close races.
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What People Are Saying
CNN data analyst Harry Enten wrote on X on January 20: "The GOP has a depression problem heading into the midterms. Their motivation to vote in 2026 is down 17 pts from 2024. Dem enthusiasm is actually up vs. 2024. The result? The Dem lead on the generic ballot rises from 5 pts overall to 16 pts among those extremely motivated."
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat, issued a warning about the midterms on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday: “What Donald Trump wants to do is try to nationalize the election. Translation: steal it. And we're not going to let it happen.”
President Donald Trump wrote last week on Truth Social: "The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received. Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!"
What Happens Next
Control of Congress will be decided on November 3, 2026. Until then, polls will be closely watched to gauge the mood of the electorate as candidates make their cases to voters across the country.
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