SB 59 Longshots

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Tyler Everett

By Tyler Everett

Sports Betting Editor

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Entering the 2024 NFL season, oddsmakers see two teams -- the Chiefs and 49ers, who met in Super Bowl 58 -- as the clear favorites to win Super Bowl 59.

That leaves a slew of enticing options at 10-to-1 or longer entering the season. At DraftKings, for example, six teams' Super Bowl outrights are between 10-to-1 and 16-to-1 as of July 24:

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It's no suprise that Baltimore and Detroit, who both reached their conference championship games in 2023, have the next-shortest odds.

Best Super Bowl 59 Preseason Longshot Bets

Four Super Bowl underdogs (at least 15-to 1 or longer at most sportsbooks) that are worth a look -- in order of shortest to longest odds -- include the Houston Texans, New York Jets, Chicago Bears and L.A. Chargers.

Texans -- Best Odds: +1600 (DK, bet365)

The Texans won't be sneaking up on anyone in 2024 after C.J. Stroud's incredible rookie season took the league by storm. Most sportsbooks currently see Houston as one of the top 10 Super Bowl contenders, but that might even be selling them short.

Stroud was plenty impressive throughout a historic regular season in 2023. More importantly, he showed in the playoffs, when he was lights-out in a wild card win over Cleveland (with 274 yards passing and three TDs on just 21 attempts), that he can handle the pressure of the postseason.

Houston's offense was inept the following week in a 34-10 divisional round loss to Baltimore. But the lopsided outcome of that game was an indictment of the Texans' O- and D-lines (the Ravens out-rushed Houston 229-38 in a game that was tied at halftime), not a result of particularly poor QB play. Stroud shouldn't be totally absolved for his role in the loss (he threw for only 175 yards on 33 attempts), but it's encouraging that even in an ugly loss on the road, he avoided being sacked or turning the ball over.

Houston appears to have gotten better on both sides of the ball this offseason with the additions of four-time Pro Bowl pass-rusher Danielle Hunter, running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Even if the best days of the 30-year-old Diggs' career are behind him, he'll improve the Texans' young wide receiver room led by Tank Dell and Nico Collins.

A few other reasons continued growth is likely for this team include:

Whether you deem Houston a true "longshot" or not, this squad offers a ton of value at the currently available price.

Jets -- Best Odds: +2200 at BetMGM

Let's start by acknowledging that if you're betting on the Jets, their floor is a bit scary, even for a flier at long odds. That's just how it goes with a team whose season hinges on the health of a 40-year-old QB coming off a torn Achilles.

Still, Aaron Rodgers gives the Jets a tantalizing ceiling. This team won seven games apiece the last two years despite starting the likes of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle at QB.

The Jets have played good defense the last two years under defensive-minded head coach Robert Saleh. That unit figures be solid again in 2024, which gives the Jets have a real chance to at least make the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

Rodgers just needs to play as well as he did in 2022, when he was nowhere near his best, but still much better than anything the Jets have had under center in recent memory, to give this team real upside. He threw for 26 passing TDs and 12 interceptions in his final year as a Packer while completing over 64% of his passes. He ought have no trouble replicating a season at or above that level if he can stay on the field.

N.Y. boasts young studs at WR (Garrett Wilson) and RB (Breece Hall), who could make this a potent offense alongside a revitalized Rodgers -- again, we're focusing on this team's best-case scenario.

As long as the defense led by stars DT Quinnen Williams, LBs Jermaine Johnson II and Quincy Williams and CB Sauce Gardner remains as effective as it's been the last two seasons, the Jets could not only make the playoffs, but make some noise in the deep AFC.

The question for the Jets -- besides the Rodgers one, of course -- surrounds its offensive line. New York's front five allowed a ridiculous 64 sacks in 2023. Injuries were a huge factor, but the NYJ OL will be much better this year following an offseason overhaul.

At minimum, this group will look dramatically different this season. One of last year's starting tackles, Mekhi Becton, is now an Eagle, and two former Ravens -- right tackle Morgan Moses and left guard John Simpson -- were brought in during the offseason. The Jets front office didn't stop there, though. It spent big on former Cowboys tackle Tyron Smith and took Penn State OT Olu Fashanu in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. A front five of Smith, Simpson, center Joe Tippmann, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Moses should turn one of the 2023 squad's biggest weaknesses into a legit strength entering 2024.

Bears -- Best odds: +3500 (available at DK, FD)

Let's close with two massive swings (and two potentially huge payouts): the Bears and the Chargers.

Like the Jets, many ignored how good the Chicago defense was a year ago, especially down the stretch, because the team was on its way to its third consecutive losing season.

But led by Pro Bowl corner Jaylon Johnson, midseason trade acquisition Montez Sweat up front and an underrated linebacking core anchored by T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds (the veteran LB duo was outstanding in both players' first years in Chicago), the Bears went 4-2 in their final six games of 2023.

Chicago, which finished with a 7-10 record despite a 1-5 start, allowed just 17.1 points per game over its final eight games last year. That stretch included a 28-13 win over the Lions and one-score losses on the road to playoff teams Cleveland and Green Bay in Weeks 15 and 18.

Given the encouraging end to 2023, followed by an exciting offseason that saw this team add two potential stars via the NFL Draft in QB Caleb Williams (No. 1 overall) and WR Rome Odunze (No. 9 overall), can anyone blame Bears fans for dreaming big about a future that suddenly looks very promising?

With Williams, Odunze, WRs D.J. Moore and free-agent acquisition Keenan Allen and depth at RB (D'Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson give Chicago an impressive backfield trio), as well as on offensive line returning four starters, the Bears have a chance to take a massive leap on offense.

The tough NFC North will make a jump to contender status tough to pull off, but Chicago has the pieces to justify a small play on their futures price at these odds.

Chargers -- Best odds: +4500 at DraftKings

Last but not least, why not consider new L.A. coach Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers.

Harbaugh famously had an immediate impact at his last NFL head-coaching job. He took the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game or further (including a Super Bowl appearance after the 2012 season) in three of four seasons from '11-14. His work in the Bay was even more impressive given that the Niners had gone 6-10 the year before he was hired.

It would be an oversimplification to look at a team that went 5-12 last year and say that Harbaugh + Justin Herbert = Super Bowl contender. Nevertheless, the Chargers are undeniably above-average or better at both head coach and quarterback.

The AFC West is not exactly daunting beyond the Chiefs, which should give Herbert and Co. a great chance at 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year Herbert's first playoff win -- or wins?? -- in his fifth year at the helm.

For it all to come together, L.A. will need to answer a slew of questions. The uncertainty starts with the outlook of the offense as a whole after key veteran contributors Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Gerald Everett all left, with free agent RBs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards and rookies Ladd McConkey and Joe Alt all expected to play big roles in 2024.

Oddsmakers including FanDuel -- where this team's win total is 8.5 (Over -154, Under +126) -- appear unsure about what to expect from the Chargers, but if nothing else, the Harbaugh-Herbert combo gives this team intriguing potential.

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